The state of the Presidential race (IMHO)

[cthulu2016]

I think Michigan is the must win state this year—the state both sides need.

(Assuming that Pennsylvania's "brown-bag test" voting requirements don't put that state in surprising play, which it doesn't appear they will. And assuming that Ryan, who has never even run for statewide office in Wisconsin, doesn't put that state in the Romney column. I suspect he won't.)

Romney will have his dreary convention and pick up 3-5 points, then we will have our own snooze-fest and pick up 4-6 points and going into the debates Obama will be up 2-4 points nationally.

Then come the debates. I don't expect them to change much. Romney won't score much on Obama and Obama's hits on Romney will not be game-changing. People exposed to Mitt will find him an unlikable creep and compulsive liar, of course, but there are just not that many persuadable voters out there. So another 2-4 points for Obama. Up 4-8 points.

Take away a point for general voter suppression effects and call it 3-7 points.

Throughout the fall there will be a countervailing dynamic in play. We are going to get out spent at least two to one on TV ads. Depending on the ferocity of the Citizen's United fueled PACs that could be three to one.

And a lot of those ads will be straight-up racism. The bad guys are going to push in all the chips on this one.

Is the difference on TV ads (we will be airing plenty, just not as many) going to be worth 3-7 points?

I haven't the faintest idea.

Most October surprise scenarios would redound to Obama's benefit. The presidency is a good place to be in a crisis.

And the odds of a campaign destroying gaffe are pretty much 0% for Obama and about 5% for Romney. (If Romney hasn't self destructed yet it's hard to say what the standard of campaign-destroying gaffe even is for Republicans.)

Taken altogether, I'd say it's exceedingly close, but Advantage Obama. It seems like Obama has a sturdy advantage. But we have never seen unlimited RW spending in a presidential campaign before.

I'll put the over/under at Obama by 1.5%, and the odds at 60%-40% Obama.

Just one man's opinion.

[Vincardog]

1. I think the deluge of racist ads will produce a backlash against the fascist party.

The American Body Politic "has a way of shutting this kind of thing down."

[LiberalCatholic]

2. I think the President will win it narrowly

I think the race is not quite as close as polls suggest. When I see something in favor of Mitt Romney on Facebook I always check out comments. There are always more negative comments -from the simple "dislike" comments (there is a "like" button that you can click on when someone posts something) to really angry anti- Rmoney comments. I think that the polls are not addressing younger people who I do feel will get out and vote this time. Add to that the extremely distasteful Rmoney campaign, the great job the Obama campaign is doing so far, the Ryan Medicare factor and three debates and I think you have polls moving toward Obama. This extra bump should be enough to compensate for the voter suppression and any other way they try to steal it. Just my opinion...

[longship]

3. I like your analysis here.

But there is another dynamic which may come into play here. People do not seem to like Mitt very much. And he seems intent on preserving that characteristic.

So, I think you ought to figure that into your calculus. Surely that's good for some points -- even one would be good.

Another, you are citing national polling. In an electoral college election that may show national trends, but it does not reflect the reality that, as these now stand, Mitt has a steep climb to 270 votes. Maybe, a very steep climb.

This is going to be one of the most interesting elections since my first vote in a presidential election, in 1972 at the age of 22. I was a McGovern precinct delegate in Detroit.

I think that there is little hope for Mitt. Obama seems to be controlling the rhetoric of the campaign. If this continues, which it seems is highly possible, Mitt loses big and Republicans could lose it all.

Already, it looks like we keep the Senate, although we may need Joe to break ties. But with candidates like Duckworth and others, dare we hope to take back the House? I think with impending Romney campaign collapse, that too may come within reach.

Mitt is in big trouble, I think.

[quinnox]

4. I'd call it a toss 'up, I think it will be very close

but I do appreciate your analysis. I don't think Obama has 60-40 odds in his favor, that seems too optimistic IMHO.

[JDPriestly]

5. Here in Los Angeles, Obama wins hands down in my opinion.

I'm just talking to local voters in my neighborhood. They are really excited about another term for Obama.