The Electoral College: Trumps ONLY hope

[kennetha]

Trump now LOVES the electoral college, even though he railed against it back in 2012 when he thought Obama might win the EC while losing the popular vote to Romney.


He loves it because he knows that the ONLY way he can possibly win the presidency again is with a repeat of 2016. He must win the EC DESPITE losing the popular vote.

It's a hard thing to do ... done only five times in America's history.. But he is basically banking on doing it again. He'd be the first in history to pull such a feat off twice.

Since he knows he has no chance in hell of even coming close to winning the popular vote this time around, he and his minions are working assiduously to exploit the foibles of the EC.

Don't get me wrong, he would love to win the popular vote if he could. Just like George Bush II, he would see doing so as a kind of vindication of his first term.

But he is certainly not banking on it. Indeed, he is planning a strategy that presumes he will lose the popular vote, but will nonetheless will enable him to win the EC despite losing the popular vote again.

That's why he plays to his base more and more and more. He MUST keep them completely AROUSED. Screw the rest of the country. It doesn't matter if NO ONE in California or New York votes for him as long as he gets to 270.

You have to remember it is theoretical possible to win the EC with just 23% of the popular vote. And Trump now takes ENORMOUS comfort in that fact. It is the route to his potential salvation.

[Shell_Seas]

1. With all of the states that have changed their rules;

(I.E. Washington won't let him on ballot unless tax returns, + the 12(ish) states that will hand their electoral votes to the popular vote)

Does he still have a shot? (Or were all of those states going to go blue, anyway?)

[OliverQ]

19. The only states that have approved that are blue states

he wasn't going to win anyway. Until swing states or red states get on board, it won't matter.

[HopeAgain]

2. Getting rid of the electoral college faces the same problem

as Democrats have with the electoral college. Tyranny of the Red States.

[kennetha]

3. True.

But when faced with Tyranny in our past, some said, "Give me liberty or Give me Death."

Worth remembering.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. This is a big reason i am flirting with switching my support to Beto

We need somebody certaIn to win both the ec and pv.

[kennetha]

5. Right, if we could flip some otherwise reliably red state

Trumps strategy would be MUCH harder to pull off.

And you KNOW that if we were to win the EC but lose the popular vote, the Republicans would take to the streets in protest.

The Shrub for awhile actually thought during the 2000 campaign that Gore might win the EC but lose the PV and were planning all sorts of shenanigans in case that eventuality turned out to be true.

[Jarqui]

6. The GOP are ruthless. They'll do anything to retain power.

Why should they throw in with Trump again for 2020?

I do not see him winning any states in 2020 that Hillary won in 2016.
Wisconsin and Michigan look hopeless for him to steal again. Dems should take all of Maine.

Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina & Florida are all battleground states for 2020 right now. He has to win all of them to retain the White House. Biden was born in Scranton, PA - he's not going to lose that state - that's why Trump fears him so much.

After seeing that warrant on Cohen, Trump is in deep trouble. The Mueller report will cut him down a few notches. Then, the next 18 months, the House is going to do to Trump what the GOP did with Benghazi and emails to Hillary. Except it will be worse because the House has a real case with real evidence. And way more scandals.

The GOP are probably stock pilling their dough in PACs. When the time is right, they'll cut Trump's throat and run a fresh candidate that will give the GOP a better shot at the Oval Office.

I do not see the power hungry GOP falling on their sword for Trump. Most of them probably can't stand him like the rest of us. They won't lose a wink taking him out when the time is right.

[kennetha]

7. Well, Trump now OWNS the GOP

Republican office holders know that if Trump says "jump" his "base" (which we really should call the GOP remnant) will only ask, "how high."

Since he commands the base, he commands almost all Republican office holders.

They are caught between a rock and hard place.

[Jarqui]

8. No he doesn't. The GOP are just playing along.

I suspect they were hoping Pelosi would take him out for them.
If he isn't impeached, someone will probably step up and throw their hat into the ring in the primary.
They'll probably quietly support someone like Shultz to siphon votes away from the Democratic candidate. And take their shot.

These people are ruthless and not stupid. They've been stealing elections most of my life.
They'll flush Trump like the dirty piece of toilet paper he is in a heartbeat, And they'll counter with talking points spin that the Trump deadheads will lap up.

[kennetha]

10. Well, I hope you are right. I'll believe it when I see it though

If, for example, he get's a primary challenge, then maybe.

[NewJeffCT]

20. the base is shrinking, though

self identified Republicans made up 32% of the electorate under George W Bush. It's now 25% of the electorate.

W at 80% popularity within the 2004 GOP is 25.6% of the electorate
Donny at 90% popularity within the 2019 GOP is 22.5% of the electorate

[Xolodno]

9. I believe the Electoral College should be revised, not removed.

It should be like Maine. You get the electoral votes based on Congressional Districts. The two extra on popular vote. You could even split the two extra on popular vote, you have to have certain percentage over the other candidate, otherwise the vote is split.

Right now, certain states are written completely out of the equation during an election and some states get way too much attention. OH, PA and FL should not decide our elections.

But if Electoral votes were assigned by District and the two extra by popular vote, you still can avoid the "tyranny of the majority" and give the minority a voice. The "winner takes all" is used as "tyranny of the minority" in our current system.

[kennetha]

11. States shouldn't decide elections at all.

The EC is completely anti-democratic.

[Xolodno]

12. I agree. However....

Even though we envision ourselves as one country, we are technically not. Its a union of former colonies. territories and independent countries. For example, Texas was an independent country for awhile.

The Union was founded on the principal that a "state" would handle its own internal affairs, but affairs of the Union would be handled by the Federal Government.

Direct Democracy assumes there are no States or State rights, that isn't going to happen in our elections. Your Someplace town with your standard Main Street is not going to surrender their power to Bigplace City with multiple neighborhoods.

Our best bet, is to reach a compromise that still gives States the equal footing they desire, while yielding to a changing nation.

I also agree with your tactic, tell them to agree to a compromise...or California will decide all the elections.

[hughee99]

13. Personally, I think this is probably a better system. A national popular vote would

Potentially put America in the position of having a national recount, which would be a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

[kennetha]

14. This is a silly argument.

A national election is MUCH harder to rig or steal.

The electoral college incentivizes voter suppression and voter fraud. Because a little fraud and suppression can give you an entire states electoral votes due to a rounding error.

It is STUPID, INSANE, CORRUPT, ANTI-DEMOCRATIC, relic of the SLAVERY era.

Time for it to go.

[hughee99]

15. You know how they do recounts and you see all sorts of irregularities where boxes of votes are found

in closets, and votes are recounted based on varying standards? Imagine that happening not in a few counties in Florida, but in a few counties in each of the 50 states. If you think "rounding errors" would affect the vote totals when you count a few hundred thousand votes, what do you think will happen when you have to recount more than 100 million... and keep in mind, if you're doing a NATIONAL recount, the vote was close enough already to trigger that recount. If your concern is "a little fraud and suppression", it's much easier to police that in one or two counties than it is in all counties in all 50 states.

I'm not a fan of the EC, but I also don't think a national popular vote will result in less fraud and corruption.

[kennetha]

16. If you are losing the popular vote by 3,000,000

and you have to steal or suppress enough votes on a national scale to steal the presidency, that's a MUCH larger challenge, then if you are losing the national popular vote by 3,000,000 but only have to flip 70,000 votes in a few states to win the presidency.

A lot higher payoff for just a little bit of fraud under the EC. A LOT.

[hughee99]

17. In either case, you are talking about the same percentage of votes

And I think it’s easier to police corruption in a single county or state than it is to police it in all counties in all states.

[Captain Stern]

18. True. But it's our only hope too.

Regardless of whether or not we like the electoral college, our candidate is going to have to win more electoral votes than trump in order to win the Presidency.

Those are the rules, and everybody knows that going in.

Winning the popular vote, and losing the electoral vote is like a football team out gaining an opponent in yardage, but scoring less points than them. Sure it's nice to be able to say that you did that, but the other team still wins the game.

[Yavin4]

21. Trump has a better chance of winning in 2020 than he did in 2016

The power of a non-primaried, incumbent is strong. Don't forget the Dems will spend the next year and a half or so beating up each other in debates across the country. People get extremely passionate in highly contested primaries and don't like it when their favorite candidate loses.

Trump is going to be very, very difficult to beat in 2020.

[Gothmog]

22. Here is a good way to get rid of the electoral college

Link to tweet