IA-SD30: Early vote returns looking positive for Iowa Dems ahead of Tuesday's special election

[RandySF]

Voters in Cedar Falls, Hudson, and part of Waterloo will elect a new state senator on March 19. Three candidates are on the ballot for Iowa Senate district 30: Republican Walt Rogers, Democrat Eric Giddens, and Libertarian Fred Perryman.

Republicans took some advantages into this campaign, which is on a shortened timetable because Senator Jeff Danielson resigned during the legislative session. Rogers was better-known than Giddens, and Governor Kim Reynolds scheduled the vote during spring break for the University of Northern Iowa and Cedar Falls public schools, when many people in Democratic-leaning constituencies would likely be out of town.

But since Bleeding Heartland previewed this race in late February, Giddens has emerged as the favorite. Republicans tacitly acknowledged their weaknesses by launching a second over-the-top negative television commercial on March 15, rather than closing on what was supposed to be Rogers’ selling point: giving Black Hawk County and UNI a voice in the Iowa Senate majority caucus....

So far, Democrats have voted in larger numbers and expanded their lead each day. Black Hawk County auditor’s staff provided these absentee ballot numbers at the end of the day on March 15. Note: these figures do not include anyone who voted early in person at the county auditor’s office on March 16, or whose absentee ballots were hand-delivered or arrived at the auditor’s office by mail on March 16.

At the end of the day on March 15, the auditor’s office had received 5,440 absentee ballots. Registered Democrats had cast 2,810 of those, while Republicans cast 1,720. Democrats believe Giddens has more support among the 874 no-party voters who had already cast ballots, in part because college students and other younger voters are more likely to register without a party affiliation.

Looking at the early vote numbers from some of the best Republican precincts reveals more reasons for Rogers to worry. Take Black Hawk/Hudson/Lincoln, where Rogers, Reynolds, and Blum all far outpaced their challengers in the 2018 general election (as you can see on Gorton’s spreadsheet above). Republicans had cast more ballots there as of March 15, but not by much.



https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2019/03/17/republicans-are-worried-about-iowa-senate-district-30-with-good-reason/

[Hermit-The-Prog]

1. we need every state office we can get