Scary article from The Guardian: "Why Trump Could Win Again"

[srobertss]

By Dave Eggers. This is a long article that I haven’t thoroughly read but this paragraph made me pause:

‘But how to explain that about half of Trump’s audience that night in El Paso were people of colour, most of them Latino? How to explain the fact that Trump attracted 15,000 supporters to his rally, while O’Rourke garnered only 4,000 people to his event, held in his hometown, on the same evening? How to explain the thousands of Trump supporters who held signs – given to them when they entered the Coliseum – that read “Finish the Wall”, when Trump has not yet begun any construction on said wall? And how to explain the Trump campaign’s decision to follow his speech with the Rolling Stones’s “You Can’t Always Get What You Want?”’


https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/mar/02/why-donald-trump-could-win-again-by-dave-eggers

I don’t know the author well and I couldn’t find much commentary on this article anywhere. So I thought I would post it here to get help processing it. For some reason, I thought the attendance numbers at Beto’s rally were actually higher than Trump’s. And the diversity he’s talking about in Trump’s rally isn’t anything I’ve heard about either. I have seen elsewhere that his popularity among Latinos is actually growing. Which is also alarming to me. Thoughts?

[NewJeffCT]

1. According to Wikipedia

People of Hispanic/Latino descent make up 82% of the El Paso population.

So, 50% is below the city average - if true.

The fire marshalls/police said 6,500 in the building and maybe 10,000 in total for Trump.

[bleedingulcers]

2. Not the rally numbers I saw

I saw something like Beto had twice as many people actually at his rally, as opposed to the "waiting outside" nebulous number that doesn't reflect anything easily quantifiable.

Might that be part of this author's problem - starting with bad facts?

[underpants]

4. My first thought too n/t

[pnwmom]

3. I don't know where they got that number. The fire dept. said 6500 were at DT's venue.

https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2019/02/11/trump-el-paso-rally-how-many-attended-president-speech/2844138002/

However, a fire department spokesman said 6,500 people were inside the venue and denied any special accommodations were made.

[unblock]

5. looking at a train wreck doesn't mean you approve of it.

also, comparing donnie's audience to o'rourke's audience is rather silly.

donnie is president with huge name recognition and a (hopefully) unique political phenomenon.

o'rourke may well become a major phenomenon, but he's certainly not there yet.

plus there are many factors that influence size of any one particular event. for instance, how often does donnie give a speech in el paso, vs., how often does o'rourke give a speech in his hometown? if this was one of the only chances to see donnie, it makes sense more of them would make a point to attend, whereas many people might have seen o'rourke before and feel no need to see him a second or third time.

[California_Republic]

6. Bingo! I might go to a Trump rally. Fricking history

Ugly history, but history

I went to one of those wff shows. Trump rallies remind me of those crazy wrestling shows

[RandySF]

7. As an incumbent, the odds are in his favor

especially given the makeup of the electoral college.

[Lucid Dreamer]

19. 2020 Electoral college

will sway closer to the 2012 shape in my opinion.
Depends upon who is running against him of course, but I think the distribution is spring loaded in that direction.
I could be wrong.

[pnwmom]

8. Politifact and Dallas News have very different numbers than the Guardian reported.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2019/feb/12/donald-trump/did-beto-orourke-attract-only-200-or-300-people-hi/

We may never know the exact number of attendees -- we sought an official estimate from the El Paso Police Department and the city government of El Paso, but none was provided by publication time. Media reports suggested the number was in the thousands. For instance, the Texas Tribune reporters in El Paso wrote that "about 7,000 people went to see O'Rourke speak at the park, according to an aide, who cited law enforcement."

SNIP

An El Paso Fire Department spokesman told the El Paso Times that the venue where Trump was speaking holds 6,500 people for that type of event, and it was filled to capacity. A few thousand more might have been standing outside, fire public information officer Enrique D. Aguilar told the newspaper, though there was no official count made of the outside crowd.

This would mean that the total crowd size "might be 10,000 with the people outside," Aguilar told the paper. Other reported estimates were a few thousand higher. Either way, those estimates were well below Trump’s total.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/02/11/could-beto-orourkes-counter-rally-trumps-el-paso-visit-hispresidential-bid-launch

(About the O'Rourke rally)

Law enforcement said the "March for Truth" crowd had as many as 7,500 marching, with several thousand more gathered at the park where the rally was held.
Speaker after speaker said Trump was trying to use the border security issue to divide people, chanting "El Paso united can never be divided."

[FreepFryer]

9. Trump has, in my opinion, an even chance at reelection. But not for the fallacious "reasons" here.

[srobertss]

10. Thank you!

My blood pressure just dropped by reading these responses. But I do need to open my eyes more to the possibility of re-election. I keep looking at fivethirtyeight.com’s poll aggregation, which is currently at 42% approval and feeling reassured. But I’m guessing quite a few people know enough to be ashamed and lie to pollsters, but their behavior with their ballots could be quite different. Plus the electoral college and voter suppression. It’s going to be tense clear up to the election.

[Lock him up.]

14. With all the Russian aSSet's crimes to be exposed by House Committies pretty soon...

his name could not even be on the ballot by then...

Plus, the U.S. Cyber Command can block Internet access to the Russian troll farm:
U.S. Cyber Command operation disrupted Internet access of Russian troll factory on day of 2018 midterms
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142274718

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. I have read that we are not safe where trump is in the mid 40s or above.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. I'd like to push a button and keep him at 42% until November 2020

Very unlikely he wins from there, although it would be close.

I welcome every bit of negative new or tantrum because it prevents his approval rating from establishing a new level. Once it establishes a new level it is exponentially more difficult to get it down because Trump's approval level is considerably less fluid than other presidents.

We could use an economic dip in early to mid 2020...anything to get rid of this sludge.

[srobertss]

17. I know

I feel guilty wishing for an economic downturn, but I do, nevertheless.

[marylandblue]

11. Everybody is missing the point of the article.

This is what a descent into fascism looks like. An evil spirit has gripped America and the article is trying to tell it is growing stronger.

[srobertss]

12. I think you're right

It’s time to stop relishing his criminality and stupidity, because that seems to be a feature, not a bug. His two hour rant at CPAC is probably the perfect response to the investigations.

The other thing I need to stop feeling so comfortable about is the 2018 blue wave. It’s great and it’s great Democrats are investigating. But even after a Republican surge in 2010, Obama won re-election.

It’s going to be quite a fight. A fight for the heart of the country.

[Lock him up.]

13. If so, it is trying to tell another lie.

The Russian troll farm will be blocked out of the Internet on next Election Day.

Just like they were last November.

[MiltonBrown]

18. The only way he wins is if a 3rd party takes votes away from the Dem nominee.

Most Americans either eagerly await voting against him or aren't voters. His cult has maxed out and is in decline. I've noticed plenty of 'buyers remorse' from Repubs.