Our base may be shifting and we might need TX?! (Stipulating: based on Gallup and MF45 Approval)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Who in the world would have thought people hate Trump more in Texas than in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin? And, who would have thought that 40% of the people in Oregon and Virginia and DELAWARE would approve of this maniac! Notes: 270 Needed to win; Obama Approval at 2016 election - 53%)

A. Let's call safe, based on Dingbat's latest approval - Under 40% Approval:

State/Approval/EVs/Won EC 2016:
1. HI..26%..4..HRC
2. VT..28%..3..HRC
3. MA..29%..11..HRC
4. CA..29%..55..HRC
5. MD..31%..10..HRC
6. NY..32%..29..HRC
7. IL..35%..20..HRC
8. NJ..35%..14..HRC
9. NH..35%..4..HRC
10.RI..36%..4..HRC
11.WA..36%..12..HRC
12.CT..36%..7..HRC
13.ME..37%..4..HRC 3, DJT 1
14.NM..38%..5..HRC
15.MN..39%..10..HRC
16.CO..39%..9..HRC
17. DC...3..HRC

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 204

B. Add in Dingbat's approval - 40% approvals:
18.DE..40%..3..HRC
19.OR..40%..7..HRC
20.NV..40%..6..HRC
21.VA..40%..13..HRC

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL: 233 (2016- HRC: 232, DJT:1)

C. Add in Dingbat's approval - 41% approvals:
22.TX..41%..38..DJT

--**TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES : 271 (2016- HRC 232, DJT: 39)

D. Add in Dingbat's approval - 42% approvals:
23.MI..42%..16..DJT
24.PA..42%..20..DJT
25.WI..42%..10..DJT

--TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 317 - WITHOUT TEXAS, 279 - NEEDED TO WIN?:270
(2016 - HRC 232, DJT: 85)
E. Add in "NEW SWING" Dingbat's approval - =>43% and =<49% approvals:

26. FL..43%..29..DJT
27. AZ..43%..11..DJT
28. GA..44%..16..DJT
29. IO..45%..6..DJT
30. NC..45%..15..DJT
31. OH..48%..18..DJT
32. IN..48%..11..DJT
33. NE..49%..5..DJT
34. LA..49%..8..DJT

--TOTAL CUMULATIVE ELECTORAL VOTES: 436 - WITHOUT TEXAS, 398 - NEEDED TO WIN?:270
(2016- HRC: 232, DJT: 204)

SCARY

(snip)Texas as a whole is relatively competitive in terms of party identification, Republicans continue to dominate in statewide elections there, perhaps because of lower participation among Hispanics. To the extent Republican voters in the key states participate at higher rates than Democratic voters, a Trump job approval rating in the mid- to high 40s may be enough to allow him to win those states.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247004/trump-job-approval-higher-states-2018.aspx
https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/allocation.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[Turin_C3PO]

1. Man, if we could get Texas...

That would be a dream come true for me. Austin, El Paso, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio would have to show up in record numbers at the polls for that to happen. But, it is possible, I think!! I live in NM and would love to see my neighbors, Texas and Arizona, join the blue tide.

[irisblue]

3. I heard, on radio, often during the last election cycle, from an Austin/San Antonio

Newspaper writer that the DNC/DNC Senate Campaign was not putting boots on the ground & $ early enough and not reaching out to local talent. I would, seriously donate some of my 'widows mite' IF I felt-saw that the lessons learned were, in fact learned. Wasserman Schultz left burnt ash taste for me.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Yes, infrastructure not there. And hundreds upon hundreds

of local Republicans on ballots which drags us down. I've been in TX 20 years and Beto has had the most local presence of any of our people.

Texas is possible...but it would take a Herculean effort to combat Facebook and Rush push against our candidate. And that would ONLY be if we didn't put a more progressive candidates in.

[Gothmog]

2. Texas will turn blue

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Dem_4_Life]

4. I know I will be doing my part here!!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Hey fellow Texan! We've got to think

Of a way to combat the b******* they spread on Facebook.

[Dem_4_Life]

8. Hey There!!! Facebook is out of control! I always post replies to the crazies with facts.

They try to come back with some made up "facts" and then I try to find non-NBC or CNN URL's to send them. Sometimes they just give up and I always HOPE someone reads the URL's I post to at least sway one voter at a time.

I also do the same thing on Twitter.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. Well, I dropped Facebook over Russia, so I have to reply on my husband's

account, which he has warned me against - since many are his clients who I can't piss off. Living in Central Texas, you wouldn't have friends or acquaintances if you didn't include wingnuts. Can you post to someone you are not friends with?

I may have told you, but I saw Beto climbing in polls and then he plateaued at the exact same time they started spreading bullshit about him.

Love what KLBJ guys call Facebook ---Mombook

[Dem_4_Life]

45. You can respond to people you aren't friends with...

I usually respond to people commenting on local news. I agree about the Beto plateau I saw the same thing happen.

I don't use Facebook as much but I do use it mainly for my side business.

[NewJeffCT]

7. Will Castro or another Hispanic American on the ticket

push up Hispanic turnout in Texas and Arizona and elsewhere? Could that put those states in play?

I remember in 2008, African American turnout as a percentage of African Americans surpassed white turnout, at least partly due to Obama.

Texas was closer than Iowa in 2016, even though Iowa got a lot more attention. Georgia and Arizona were both closer than Ohio and we know Ohio got a lot of attention from both candidates.

[Dem_4_Life]

9. Not sure since there are a lot of white racists in the non-major cities in TX

But then again Texas people really like their own people. Texans stick with other Texans so you never know.

HOWEVER...Castro might help win over Hispanic republicans (there are a lot of them surprisingly) and he might get more non-voting Hispanic people to vote.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Yes...perhaps Castro as VP with Biden could win Texas.

we would have to build up Hispanic participation to the hilt. If that could happen, Castro could be responsible for turning Texas blue for a very long time.

On a whole, I don't think there's an enormous bigotry against Hispanics here, in a border state. It's like the red, non-border states are more bigoted.

In my opinion, the most bigotry here in Texas, in my opinion, is against women first.

Like someone else said, (concentrate on finding a winning team for PA, WI, and MI) and if you can turn TX while doing the former, we will win.

Trump approval at 42% in each, PA, WI, and MI. Like to see that get under 40! since Gallup suggesting the magic number could be mid-forties.

[Gothmog]

12. The state party is talking to the Castro brothers about perhaps running for Senate

Right now, the state party is talking to Beto, the Castro brothers and Wendy about running against Cornyn for senate. We have until mid December to file in Texas for Senate.

[NewJeffCT]

15. so if they have another 10 months to file

Beto can test the waters for president and then back out & run for senate if he doesn't make enough traction.

[Gothmog]

17. That is what the state party is hoping

Personally, I would love Julian as VP and Beto to run for Senate but I could flip these two easily

[NewJeffCT]

19. I think either one

would have a tough time knocking off Cornyn. Cruz is just off-putting as a person, while Corny may be just as bad politically, he doesn't give off the negative vibe that Cruz does, I don't think.

[Gothmog]

21. The hope is that two years of change in the demographics will make Cornyn vulnerable

Texas is turning blue due to changes in demographics. Two more years of younger voters replacing older voters will help. The GOP is dependent on older white voters who are dying off and are being replaced by younger more diverse voters

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. I don't get the feeling that Corny is 100% behind

any kind of wall. If lawsuits start with Texan landowners could get interesting

[jcgoldie]

13. MI, WI, & PA are much more likely based on midterm results

...and with them we don't need TX.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. That's true, based on their Dem history. More

Likely. If we can solidify all four states we are totally in business.

[jcgoldie]

30. That would be great

You know a lot more about Texas than me, but from an outsider's perspective it just seems like we've been hearing about TX turning purple for 20 years only to see a horrible unpopular dude like Ted Cruz hang on against a candidate that generates a lot of excitement. I realize midterms are always are a challenge for democrats due to demographics, but it was also a wave election.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. I just looked, and they ALL have Democratic governors, which will help.

DNC needs to concentrate on them to educate on and combat against voter suppression and fake negative ads. Still don't believe Trump really won each of those. Which means, he's already got a plan that works.

[Initech]

14. Man how I would love to make Florida irrelevant in the EC equation.

It's getting old waiting for them to make a decision. And too often they make the wrong one.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. I know !!! Plus, they probably still have Jeb's vote manipulating software on the

shelf - which they can't use.

Ohio, the same.

[edhopper]

16. Florida will be Blue

once felons start voting.

[NewJeffCT]

20. I saw an analysis of that

and, it's not expected to make much of a difference

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. Why?

[jcgoldie]

34. I would think the main reason is its a very unreliable voting block

Hope I'm wrong but the question is how many of them make it to the polls?

[NewJeffCT]

35. when granted the right to vote in other states

ex felons have voted at rates of about 8-14%, extraordinarily low numbers.

https://medium.com/s/story/how-thousands-of-voting-ex-felons-could-impact-floridas-elections-ebc80388ff3d

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida

Additionally, can't find the article, but I believe the felons in FL have to pay any outstanding fines/fees/taxes associated with their crimes to be able to get their rites restored. Many of these ex-felons just can't afford to pay out the money, and those that are less likely to be able to afford it are non-white ex-felons.

[Codeine]

23. I don't think it makes sense

to assume felons are a de facto Democratic voting bloc.

[jcgoldie]

36. the racial breakdown of felons very much favors Democrats

If they vote anything like non-felons along racial lines then it should be a strong Democratic block... if they show up in significant numbers.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Texas would be gravy on a landslide

And a landslide is not happening against an incumbent. I realize people don't want to hear that, but I'll stick with the long term fundamentals.

Many other states would join before Texas would. Those upper midwestern states and Pennsylvania obviously are the greatest regain opportunities, because they didn't shift in ideology in the first place. All had a gap of 9% or lower between conservatives and liberals. That remains by far the best reference point, and not approval rating or polling or anything involving subjectivity. A state with a 10% or lower gap will trend Democratic. Then once it reaches 11% or 12% it is iffy but leaning right, and at 13% gap and above the state will vote red.

Florida, for example, had an 11% gap in 2016 -- 36% conservatives to 25% liberals. Arizona showed promise in 2016 when the gap dropped to only 13% at 40% conservatives to 27% liberals. That meant it was in play given a favorable national slant and favorable candidate matchup. I emphasized immediately after the 2016 result that Arizona was next in line, and not Georgia or Texas or any of the other touted states.

My state of Florida remains the tease. I understand the negativity due to all the razor tight defeats, often defying polling and expectation. But I have also witnessed Republican operatives much more sophisticated and energized than Democrats in my neighborhood, and read online accounts that it is hardly isolated. We are simply being outmaneuvered in Florida. However, this state is exponentially more likely to tilt our way than Texas is right now.

Texas has 44% self-identified conservatives. The 2016 exit poll was 44% conservatives and 20% liberals. It is the reason Beto could not win. I emphasized that beforehand. I bet heavily on Ted Cruz due to the math, despite despising Cruz. That wager was an extreme bargain given the makeup of the Texas electorate. Again, I'll stick with my reference points even if they are seldom mentioned elsewhere.

Beto's push cut the Texas gap to 43% to 22% in the 2018 exit poll. That is excellent given a midterm but you can see how far away it is. We need flocks of new young voters and Hispanic voters. One cycle won't be nearly enough. Frankly I can't believe how many dunces want Beto to run for senate against Coryn. The math would kill him again and his buzz and career would really take a hit, perhaps never to fully recoup.

The Texas 2018 exit poll had Trump's approval rating square at 49-49. Trump is more popular with actual voters than in generic polling. That is the reason I continue to insist our adjustments are in the wrong direction. If Trump has a 45% approval on election day 2020 it will probably be closer to 48 or 49% among actual voters. That's why it is imperative that his approval number remains where it is now and not just a few points higher. We are no longer the betting favorite if his approval rating goes up 2-3% from where it is right now.

[Gothmog]

26. The hope is that two years of change in the demographics will make Texas competitive

Texas is turning blue and there will be greater turnout for a POTUS year. Time will tell. We have people signing up to run for 6 swing congressional districts already. A friend is holding a fund raiser for a state representative seat next month. We are having a great deal of interest.

[NewJeffCT]

28. Texas was closer than Iowa in 2016

and it was almost the same Ohio

Iowa was +9.3% for Trump over Clinton
TX was +8.99% for Trump
Ohio was +8.13% for Trump

2012:
Ohio was +3% for Obama
TX was +16% for Romney
IA was +5.8% for Obama

2008:
Iowa was +9.6% for Obama
TX was +12% for McCain
Ohio was +4.5% for Obama

Agree that Texas is a long-shot, but it's trending in the right direction as opposed to Ohio and Iowa. And, all those wealthy suburbs of Dallas, Houston and Austin are not going to be happy not be losing at least some of their property tax deductions due to the Trump/Ryan tax scam eliminating SALT deductions over 10K - Texas may still be a "low cost" state overall, but many of those suburbs pay for good public schools through high property taxes.

[Gothmog]

41. These are all congressional districts being targeted by the DCCC

Link to tweet

[Ilsa]

25. Sadly, many Texas Hispanics vote republican for

Religious reasons, and their priests are telling them that abortion and LGBTQ are the most important issues for anyone who is "on God's side."

[awesomerwb1]

29. Texas may be changing colors

but not to blue just yet. I predicted 10 years ago or so that Texas may turn Blue for a presidential election in 2028.

Lots of work needed to be done by the Dem party in TX though. A serious push has to start ASAP.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. If Beto stays out completely, he'd be a great campaign manager for Texas - he's been

to every county, some more than once. Hell, his office here in nowhere Texas, still has the Beto sign up.

[awesomerwb1]

37. That's a great idea.

Love Beto. Love to see him for for Prez some day, but for now he could be more valuable as a Senator helping set the foundation to turn TX Blue from the bottom up imho.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

38. Well, guess he couldn't if he runs for Cornyn's seat - but it still would put the apparatus

in place. Dem candidate could co-op. And, it could be kind of like a ticket...senator plus president.

[awesomerwb1]

40. Yep. He should run against Cornyn.

[FakeNoose]

39. PA will go blue next year, my prediction

The only thing that would prevent it from happening is if we have a really crazy nominee, like Tulsi Gabbard.

I'm sure that won't happen, our Party will remain sane and we'll have great ticket. Also we need to stop burning bridges with the Bernie Sanders camp. Perhaps Bernie can be invited on the ticket as the VP nominee?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

42. How about what do care about most? Cabinet sec'y.

[FakeNoose]

43. Yes of course, if Bernie has the interest

We need to avoid the nastiness of 2016. There's no need for it, we can all work together and achieve greatness together.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

46. Amen. Defeat trump forever

[Catherine Vincent]

44. Texan here!

On Sunday, Quinnipiac called. I was at my dad's and I picked up the phone to participate in the poll. Of course when they asked about Trump, I said most definitely I will not be voting for him and gave him a low approval rating.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

47. +1.

[riversedge]

48. kick 🌊🌊🌊 #FlipItBlue #BlueWave2018 #VoteThemOUT

[raging moderate]

49. 2020 Vision: We can see clearly now.

Vote them out! Everywhere!