When will Russia invade Ukraine?

[triron]

Link to tweet

[Anon-C]

1. Perhaps as early March?

Back in 2015 it was late February that Boris Nemtsov was assassinated, Putin went "missing" and Russia had a very big mobilization/drill - including a mock invasion of their Arctic with simulated "nuclear de-escalation".

From my armchair, I don't think the Ukraine or invading and holding Donetsk is really their objective. I think it gives pretense to keep their Southern Military District mobilized to support some other objective.

[WeekiWater]

5. They care deeply about small parts of the Ukraine.

The objective is a warm weather port. Ukraine is a means to get it.

[Anon-C]

7. I do not disagree Russia wants Eastern Ukraine and this is idle speculation and worth that much..

...but I think Russia would likely punch higher.

They have political disruptions ongoing in the US, UK and France, but considerable resistance to their moves in each. They had a less favorable position when they took Crimea, and DNR is ripe for invasion at any time. So why lose this moment on such a modest objective?

[WeekiWater]

8. There is little modest about the objective.

It has been an overriding goal of Putin's for some time. He is passionate about it. It's been a main goal of Russia for over a century. They have waged wars for it. "Russian Expansionism" was largely directed toward warm water ports. There is little about it that is modest.

[Anon-C]

11. Could I have phrased it more poorly?

Pretty lame characterization on my part, I appreciate your response.

[kairos12]

2. Plan on no reaction from Drumpt. His planning his war on Iran.

[spanone]

4. Will trump send troops to help?

[DetlefK]

6. I'll give you 4 very good reasons why Russia won't invade Ukraine.

* If Russia invades Ukraine, they will face even more sanctions. Russia pretends that it isn't harmed by the already existing sanctions, but it is.

* Russia likes to present itself in propaganda as diplomatic and peaceful and law-abiding, as opposed to a war-hungry, interventionist, corrupt US. Russia won't attack Ukraine unless they fabricate an incident where Ukraine attacked Russia first. And even then it's doubtful.

* West-Ukraine is corrupt. No doubt about that. And the russophobic Bandera-movement has emboldened ukrainian Neonazis. West-Ukraine is the perfect boogey-man for russian propaganda about the evil ways of the West. You don't just throw that away.

* Ukraine has a MASSIVE cultural meaning. Western Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are the heartlands of the russian people, the russian culture, the "Rus". Kiev is a fundamental part of russian history and culture, an ancient metropolis full of rich culture dating back at least to the early Middle-Ages.
That's why it was so shocking when Ukraine turned away from Russia and embraced Europe: It was regarded a traitorous act, because culturally Ukraine had always been a fundamental part of Russia. (For comparison, imagine the New England States seceding from the US.)
Russia attacking Ukraine would be akin to the US Civil War in terms of cultural tragedy. It would be very hard to convince the russian people to invade their brothers and sisters.
Russia would win this war militarily, but at the cost of creating bitter internal division within russian society.

[uponit7771]

13. +1, but 3 and 4 can be overcome with a false attack of "protecting" eastern Ukraine which ...

... I'm thinking they've been building the narative for.

Are the sanctions powerful if Putin's whore, Trump, is still in office and lifts or slow walks any sanctions against them?

tia

[bif]

9. They're already in eastern Ukraine.

I saw a photo exhibit of photos of what's going on there and spoke to the photographer who spent several months there. For some reason, it gets totally ignored.

[Triloon]

10. 2014. Nt.

[Xolodno]

12. Not likely.

They got what they wanted, Crimea. Eastern Ukraine can stay in limbo like Transnistria. And Russia has one other advantage, they can slowly starve Ukraine economically and given how corrupt the country is, more of the east will start looking back at Moscow. Once that happens, Western Ukraine is in trouble.

Think I read somewhere that Putin did privately propose partitioning with Poland in the future.

Invasion isn't the way Ukraine is going to brought down, the fix is in to let the country collapse under its own weight.

[uponit7771]

14. +1, Putin wants Ukraine back under Russia's thumb