IRS Reporting 25% ***Fewer*** People Getting Tax Refund This Year

[uponit7771]

https://jimheath.tv/2019/02/americans-expecting-tax-refund-could-be-in-for-big-shock-irs-refunds-down-25/

The average tax refund check is down 8 percent ($170) this year compared to last, the IRS reported Friday, and the number of people receiving a refund so far has dropped by almost a quarter.

Early data can shift around a lot, tax experts say, but there’s reason to believe frustrations could rise as more Americans complete their tax returns.

So

Not only 25% LESS people getting ANY money

Of the 75% left

They're getting nearly 10% less than last year !!

To get the info first hand go to bottom of chart here
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-february-1-2019


Yep, we'll see if the 5th avenue theory is going to last

[Dennis Donovan]

1. All of those Trump supporters who danced around me a year ago...

...saying their guy got them a bigger refund...

Well, a year later, how do you feel? I won't call you stupid since your brains are already screaming that at you.

[uponit7771]

2. +1, there's not a mixed aisle forum I've lurked where there aren't MAGA Cultist screaming

... as we type.

They are so brain dead, wtf did they expect !?!?

The guy whos pockets got bent by 25 million for running a fake college is going to look out for them ?!?!?

[Dennis Donovan]

4. Low-information voters. We were warned...

[oasis]

3. Deplorables at the bottom get less, but they "Made Trump Great Again".

Dumbass mofos.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. What happened?

Whoa. That is a huge amount

I don't fully get why, tax rates went down, the standard deduction went up. I do know that incorrect withholding tables were sent to some employers, but that would effect so many filers. At the end of the day, for most people, they let their employers decide the withholding amount as we usually just claim what we always do.

I make pretty good money, I kept my claim at 0, I noticed a pretty big chunk extra in my pay checks starting in January of 2018. I haven't done my taxes yet, have no idea what to expect. I realize that some deductions went down, but the standard deduction went way up, my question is specifically, what went wrong?

[JenniferJuniper]

7. My state and property taxes

are waaayyy more than 10k, which is the max deduction this year.

[uponit7771]

11. +1, We moved last year, no deduction for expenses and had to claim any help from company

... as income.

REALLY screwed up

[iluvtennis]

40. Same here. And found out that $10K applies even if you own 2 properties.

I have friend who has main home and a small second vacation cabin in California - the $10K applies to him.

[uponit7771]

69. Yes, we found that out the hard way too !! We move to another state ... getting bent

[uponit7771]

8. Bottom line the ... MIDDLE CLASS TAX REFUNDS ... were shifted from end of year to payroll

... and the middle class didn't get a tax "cut"

The rich top line went down ... so they got a tax "cut"

Since there was only a shift of realization of funds to payroll (meaning people got their money spread over 2018) then of course when it comes to the end of the year there's nothing there.

[Ms. Toad]

62. That's largely my understanding of what is happening -

but it is impossible to tell from the data in the chart whether there is increased tax liability - or just a shift in when it is paid.

[cbdo2007]

13. Just depends on the situation...the standard deduction is much more

than my previous itemized deduction, and they doubled the child income tax credit from $1000 to $2000 per kid, so I had a $0 tax amount this year and got back my full refund, which was quite a bit.

All of these aggregated measures are hard because they leave out so much information.

[IronLionZion]

22. The IRS adjusted withholding tables based on new rates and deductions

for the impacted workers, it's mainly due to the larger standard deduction, so IRS withheld less. These workers would have noticed higher paychecks but maybe didn't expect the lower refund, or were even counting on that refund money to pay for big bills. This is common for students who work, also people on hourly rates whose hours vary, or if they work multiple part time jobs.

Also impacted are people who deduct business expenses or moving expenses or home equity loans, but lost those deductions during the tax reform.

[DeminPennswoods]

65. Personal exemptions went away

The increase in the standard deduction for a single filer went from $6,350 to $12,000, and increase of $5,650. But that was offset by the loss of the personal exemption of $4,050, meaning a net cut of $1,600. Since the personal exemption and standard deduction would have increased by the CPI (2.8%), iirc, they would have been roughly $6,530 and $4,160, for a total of about $11,000 making the standard deduction increase closer to $1,000.

For anyone who had even modest investments, most mutual funds sold high while the market was hitting record highs. This generated higher than average capital gains income.

For those with state/local taxes over $10,000, the excess was not deductible.

It seems the insertion of a new rate of 12% between 10% and 15% marginal rates did not help reduce taxes that much.

[Flaleftist]

6. Aren't the people expecting a return usually the first to file?

I don't think that 25% will go down much.

[uponit7771]

10. Right, only 40% have filed by now but that 40% usually are the biggest refund recepients.

... even if the number is 12.5% that's still a hit to the economy seeing a lot of people put the money back into circulation.

[DeminPennswoods]

66. Usually file as soon as all my forms arrive

Haven't gotten a refund in a few years.

[MineralMan]

9. And I hope they're all Trump voters.

Let them see what their "hero" did to them, firsthand.

[GoCubsGo]

12. ***Fewer***

Not "Less." Sorry. Just a peeve of mine.

[uponit7771]

17. thx

[Hortensis]

32. :) Tweaked my anal trait as well. Oh, well.

For anyone who's saying twf/huh?, "few(er)" is more appropriate for what can be counted, "less" for what is better measured in volumes. Fewer elephants. Less water, unless it's fewer gallons.

As for "who cares?" It's just a burden some of us bear (and the OP's kind fix is appreciated).

[LakeArenal]

49. I, too, have the same reaction..

Also number vs amount. Can’t help it.

[Hortensis]

54. "Can't help it." Wonder if there's a self-help group.

[LakeArenal]

55. Oh, I have been called a Grammar Nazi.

In light of recent events, an in fortunate label indeed!!

Grammar Perfectionist don’t work none neither. 😉

[Hortensis]

61. If you must, I'd go for educator or maybe just

well meaning. Best watch for incoming, though, and maybe wear a heavy coat if not naturally thick skinned like me.

[LakeArenal]

90. I'll only talk grammar generally on DU.

Never call out anyone specifically.

Not fair when someone is feeling emotional about a topic and is making a point.

[Hortensis]

92. :)

[Achilleaze]

14. republicans lied to American taxpayers, and is now pissing on them

while the fatcat rich republicans enjoy their REPUBLICAN TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY

REPUBLICAN MESSAGE for working Americans:

[gratuitous]

15. We did okay

But then again, we outstripped the standard deduction by several thousand dollars thanks to property tax on our residence and charitable donations (totaling more than 1/3 of our gross income). Not everyone can or wants to do that.

[rgbecker]

16. Now we know why Paul Ryan quit.

His big happy smile wasn't going to help him overcome this.

Hopefully this will be the end of Mitch too.

[dalton99a]

19. +1. Ryan and McConnell were the architects of the Great American Tax Heist

aka the tax scam

[doc03]

18. I got an $11 refund last year, this year I owe

Last edited Mon Feb 11, 2019, 05:30 PM - Edit history (1)

$332. My opinion they lowered the withholding to fool us into thinking we got a bigger tax cut. Another Don the Con job.

[uponit7771]

20. I wish I only owed 332

[Hortensis]

31. Your opinion is shared by all honest analysts.

That is of course what they did.

[doc03]

48. Yes I am retired and estimate my quarterly tax, I based my withholding on my January

pension check. In February they cut my withholding which caused me to under pay for the year.
As Elizabeth Warren said "Trump is nothing but a cheap two bit con man."

[at140]

76. Check your tax rates for this year and last year

Tax rate = Calculated total tax / Adjusted Gross Income.

I have not done my tax yet but curious how others are making out on taxes this year versus last year.
Refund is a meaningless number, all that number tells you is if your tax withholding each paycheck was too much or too little. Your calculated total tax owed has no direct relationship with refund size.

[doc03]

82. My taxes actually went down about $700 but by lowering

the withholding rate it gave me an extra $332 in income that I had to pay back. Also the government had my $332 interest free for the year. I paid around $5200 in 2017 and $4500 in 2018. I always estimate my tax so I about break even, I don't believe in overpaying and letting the government use my money for nothing.

[at140]

83. You are doing it right! Glad you saved $700 in taxes

I am much like you, I do not wish to give a interest free loan during the year and then IRS pays the loan back in form of a refund.

[Johonny]

21. All this is money that pumped the economy last year

but will be pulled out of the economy this year. Fewer refunds, less back, more that have to pay, is all money not spent into this years economy. Meanwhile the billionaires getting cuts won't spend any more than usual. It's a terrible economic plan.

[uponit7771]

33. +1, yep ... when the economy needs it lest

[malaise]

23. Every Democrat who comes on TV or radio must call ReTHUGs on their lies re

tax benefits

This is HUGE!

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Wait for the final numbers then pound it with commercials and emphasis

Still too early now

[malaise]

73. I disagree

NOW NOW NOW!! Cite the IRS data

[uponit7771]

34. +1, it is political malpractice not to mention what the IRS is reporting right now. that's a LOT of

... people not getting a refund this year compared to next year

[malaise]

35. 100% correct

In fact - this should be all ovver the Twitterverse already

[IllinoisBirdWatcher]

71. "Repeal and Replace the Repugnant Tax SCAM"

We should develop a consistent repetitive message. Pound it home to the uninformed voter.

[SunSeeker]

24. K & R for exposure.

[DemKittyNC]

25. ...

The @DNC needs to run with this big time.

This one issue alone could easily put any front runner Dem Candidate in the White House come 2020.

[Hortensis]

27. :). nt

[Hortensis]

28. :). nt

Could only wish they were all either nonvoters, third-party voters, or Republican voters.

[groundloop]

29. Not only do I owe the IRS for the first time ever, my net tax bill went up.

The net total taxes I pay went up by over $2000 this year, plus I owe the IRS over $1200 when I normally get a nice refund. Bottom line - I got screwed in order that the $Billionaire$ could pay less (not to mention that the budget deficit is exploding). I've already emailed my repub congress critters expressing my discontent with their tax scam.

[uponit7771]

43. +1, we got bent and withheld as much as possible.

[stopbush]

30. I just did a quick overview of our taxes.

Looks like we will owe over $4000 to the Feds. Last year our refund was around $3000.

The big change? I had a fulltime job from Jan thru July this year where I grossed $38000. Only $161 was withheld in Fed taxes. I assume that was based on the new tables. That, or our accountant screwed up royally.

The other differences: after I lost that job, I was paid $9000 in unemployment benefits. No taxes taken out and fully taxable. Also, my wife and I received around $17,000 in SS benefits, which is taxable at 50%.

I’m counting on my tax guy to do his usual miracle. He’s the best $200 I spend each year.

[uponit7771]

37. +1, the tax folk have to work magic this year

[wellst0nev0ter]

36. Whomp Whomp. Thoughts and Prayers

[MiniMe]

38. Once again, refunds have more to do with withholding than anything else

They messed with the withholding tables so people would see a bigger check. What was withheld was too little, you owe the tax you owe at the end of the year. This whole thing was a bait and switch. W tried it with the same results.

[Kablooie]

39. Ah yes but how many of the top 1% get MORE back?

My bet is 100%

If so the new tax plan is a tremendous success!
Hooray!

[uponit7771]

44. 100% of the top 1% got a tax CUT .. .where the middle income bracket breaks shifted lower

... and the upper 33% got bent hard.

[SHRED]

41. They already got a small break

On their paychecks.
Remember them bragging about that?

Well, why then are they surprised when they aren't getting it at the end of the year?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

42. Totally anecdotal - but I read about 50 or so posts to Yahoo's story on this.

Based on the vast majority of people, they got less of a refund because they changed their withholding (dialed it down). Obviously, people don't realize that total taxes paid is what matters.

Just a wild guess, but perhaps with fewer itemization tax payers - the withholding charts match outcome better?

[roamer65]

50. You are correct in your assumption.

Single w/no kids and for years have taken the standard deduction. Nearly same income as last year and did not change my withholding. Overall tax reduction for me was about 22 percent from tax year 2017 to tax year 2018. Where I usually owe about $50 now I get a refund of about $200. This tax scam is very much against working families.

[uponit7771]

59. +1, I have more than 2 children and we're getting bent. My SIL is cartwheeling in cash now ...

... which seems like a regressive tax policy but prolly not to her .. lol

[sarcasmo]

45. #TrumpTaxScam

[Calista241]

46. I wonder how much of that is due to the State and local tax deduction cap?

Will be interesting to see this develop.

[uponit7771]

58. It's not just the SALT cap, before we could take the standard and itemized now its just

... itemized with a cap on SALTs

[iluvtennis]

47. Joy Reid: Those tax cuts for corps & billionaires aren't just going to pay for themselves.

@JoyAnnReid
8h8 hours ago
More Joy Reid Retweeted Kyle Griffin
Those tax cuts for corporations and billionaires aren’t just going to pay for themselves, folks.

Link to tweet

[Thomas Hurt]

51. I don't know if I am an outlier here...

but I got a modest bump every paycheck and ended up with an equally modest refund about what I usually get.

[uponit7771]

57. Single with no kids made out like bandits, no incentives to buy houses though. Wonder what

... will happen to house buying among the single or 3 person family

[roamer65]

64. Not entirely correct.

Not all single folks made out like "bandits". If you are single and own a decent house in NY, CA, NJ or New England, you definitely will take a hit on the reduced SALT deduction. Remember that CA's top income tax rate is about 13 pct, for example. If I lived in CA instead of MI, I would be getting royally screwed, too.

So...if you are single, no kids, usually file standard deduction and don't live in a high SALT state...you may see the elimination of what I have called for years the "no child penalty", or the "baby subsidy".

*IF* the goal was to eliminate personal deductions for children, it should have been done slowly over time. In other words, existing decuctions should have stayed in place until the children reach 18. Children born after a certain date should then not be eligible. What the tax scamming Repukes have done is to throw a monkey wrench into the finances of millions of working families. That will result in the death of their "political party".

People need to get the gravity of what has truly happened. The Repuke party has messed around with the transfer payment compact between the states. There WILL be serious, long term repercussions with the damage they have done to it.

[Keefer]

52. Because they didn't adjust their W4.

[uponit7771]

56. They shouldn't have had to, the IRS had no business adjusting down instead of keeping the

... withholding amount the same.

That would force hundreds of millions of people to adjust to the correct amounts to keep par from last year.

Also, the 1%-ers got a tax ... CUT ... if the middle got a tax cut too then there wouldn't need to be an adjustment

[RhodeIslandOne]

53. I got a smaller refund than last year.

Technically I got a raise, so that may have something to do with it.

[Ms. Toad]

60. The data is meaningless without the actual tax liability.

Refunds are only tallying up on tax day how accurate the withholding during the year was.

I would be quite peased to owe $500 for 2018, as opposed to a refund for 2017, if my tax bill went from $5,000 for 2017 to $4,000 for 2018 (just to pull numbers out of the air). Even if I'm paying a bill, my total out of pocket was $1,000 less for taxes.

[uponit7771]

67. 25% of the refund population didn't just screw up their taxes, Red Don's middle class tax increase

... is the cause of 25% of refund population from 2018 getting blanks this year.

[Ms. Toad]

72. Not necessarily.

It isn't a matter of "screw{ing} up their taxes."

The withholding tables were changed in a sleight of hand to make it seem as if you got a pay raise.

If less money is taken out (to make it appear you got a raise), and nothing changed in the taxes you owed, you could easily go from a refund to owing - without doing anything at all

Refunds merely balance what you have paid during the year against your end of the year tax bill. So if the government changes what you paid during the year (to make it seem as if you got a raise), even if you owe the exact same amount of taxes, you will get less money back - or even owe.

E.g. If your 2017 tax bill was $1460, and your boss withheld $50/week, you would have paid $2600, and be owed a refund of $1140.

If your 2018 tax bill is also $1460, but the government changed the withholding tables to make it seem like you got a $30/week raise (i.e. they only withheld $20/week), you would have paid $1040 - not enough, so for the exact same tax bill ($1460), with no change on your part (i.e. you didn't screw up), you would owe $420.

Without knowing what the respective tax bills were, the change in refund amounts is totally meaningless.

Note: I'm not saying the taxes owed didn't change - just that the IRS is not providing enough data to determine if it is a real change in taxes owed - or just the sleight of hand backfiring.

[The Truth Is Here]

63. Im getting the same refund I received last year.

Unchanged. Very odd.

[uponit7771]

68. My SIL is swimming in cash, she's single no home, kids and decent job. We have more than 2 kids

... and very reduced deductions.

[The Truth Is Here]

70. Maybe thats it.

My family and I live with my mom. I pay no rent, but do services for her in exchange for rent. We get 3 rooms and 2 bathrooms in the basement.

[at140]

77. Some are confusing tax owed with size of refund!

Only thing Refund size tells you if you had too much or too little tax withheld each paycheck.

If you had too much withheld, you get a bigger refund. But this is a stupid because all it means is you gave IRS interest free loan.

Smart thing to do is minimum amount required by law withheld each paycheck. The amount withheld should be enough so you do not get underpayment penalty. With this method, the IRS is giving you an interest free loan!

Note that total tax you owe IRS is exactly same regardless of size of tax withheld each paycheck.

[MichMan]

74. My taxes went down significantly with the new tax laws

Married with no dependents and a house nearly paid off. Haven't itemized any deductions for 10 years as they never came close to the standard deduction.

My taxes went down approx. $2200 under the plan. Looking forward to not to have to write a big check to the IRS like I have had to do for the last several years.

[roamer65]

75. Similar situation to mine.

Except you are married. If you and I lived in NY or CA it would be completely different because we would have been itemizing deductions due to the higher income and property taxes.

[at140]

78. $2200 less tax this year compared to last year?

Are you sure you had about the same income in both years?

I have not done my taxes yet, but my situation is similar to yours.
Standard deduction, no dependents. Hoping for lower tax this year.

[MichMan]

80. Haven't filed yet, but no change in income

I used this link, hoping it is correct

http://taxplancalculator.com/

[at140]

81. I will let you know my results

I can not compute before February 18, that is when I get all the tax forms from broker.
I am sure I will owe on April 15th, because I always have minimum amounts withheld.

[roamer65]

87. I had between a $3000 and $4000 tax cut.

Nearly same situation from 2017 to 2018.

[at140]

89. Good for you! I hope to get some tax cut as well when I figure taxes

Don't have all the tax documents yet, I am told last one will be available on Feb 18th.

[Clash City Rocker]

79. It also shows 25% fewer tax returns processed, so this may be a wash

Our withholding was considerably less than last year, but we also moved to a different state and our income went up.

[uponit7771]

84. It's not end of season yet so the number of people not get a deduction this year could go up, we'll

... see

[ecstatic]

85. Something weird I'm noticing

People who made the same or less are paying MORE taxes. My salary increased $7000, and so far, CreditKarma shows a federal refund of over 1k, and I haven't put in all my deductions yet (although I doubt they'll total more than the standard deduction). I wish I could make an apples to apples comparison because last year, I got my highest refund ever--almost 8 grand. I had a lot of deductions last year though.

[uponit7771]

86. Red Don took away some big time federal deductions from last year. SALTs are were everyone is gettin

... bent, the upper 33% of middle incomes are getting bent the hardest especially if you have more than 4 people in the family.

Of course as close to apples to apples as last year as one can get in comparison

[roamer65]

88. SALT limitation and loss of personal deductions.

The 2 are a toxic mix for working families taxes.

[Danascot]

91. Maybe a series of ads saying something like

"Sheldon Adelson, who contributed millions to the trump and GOP campaigns, got tax breaks worth $700 million to him and his companies in the GOP tax bill. How big was your tax refund this year?".