Nate Silver: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls

[cali]

By NATE SILVER

We can get pretty detail-oriented in our analysis of the polls here at FiveThirtyEight. But sometimes there is also value in applying a simpler approach.

One simple thing I’ve noticed is this: Mitt Romney has held the lead recently in quite a few swing state polls. That wasn’t the case in June or July, when Barack Obama held leads in those polls far more often than Mr. Romney did.

Right now, our forecast model classifies the 10 most important states in the Electoral College as follows, and in the following order: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

If you simply count the scientific polls that have been conducted in those states since Aug. 1, Mr. Obama has led in 13 of them, Mr. Romney has led in 11, and there have been two exact ties.

<snip>

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/aug-21-romney-showing-improved-results-in-swing-state-polls/

[Cali_Democrat]

1. Problem for Romney is that he has to win pretty much every swing state to hit 270

Not the case for Obama.

BTW...PA is not a swing state no matter how much the media wants to make it one. There's a reason why Romney and Obama campaigns have pulled significant cash from that state. Their internals are probably showing Obama winning it without much of a sweat even with racist voter ID laws.

Wisconsin also isn't a swing state no matter how much the media wants to make it one with the Ryan selection. Another state that will be won easily by Obama regardless of the selection of the boy wonder.

Nevada? Obama will also take it.

Romney is fighting an uphill battle for sure.

[crimson77]

6. Romney 273

Last edited Wed Aug 22, 2012, 03:28 PM - Edit history (1)

RCP 191 base+ FL,NC,VA,WI,IA,CO. His path isn't hard if a few things break his way. My impression 2 weeks ago has changed, I thought Florida was going to be the tough sell for Romney, but for some god foresaken reason he seems to have stabilized to somewhat of a lead. I now think this election is based on one state alone VA. My mid-August thoughts on this election now are these:

North Carolina- 2012 isn't 2008, Perdue is a nightmare and the economy is sluggish.
I would park Ryan in the rust belt especially IA,Wisc and Indiana.
Ohio, I think is safe Obama, with my calculations,Romney doesnt need to care about it.
Here is a wild card for me, I don't think the Republicans actually care one lick about Pennsylvania, I think for all the talk about supression and especially the blantiness of it. I think it was all cover for all the other ID laws.

The next few weeks will probably tell us very little, Romney will probably be up anywhere from 4-7 points after the convention. After the DNC, I suspect it will be essentially tied in national polling.

My prediction on 8/22/12 is Obama wins the Popular vote by 1-2 million and loses the Electoral College 273-265. Hate or concern troll me all you want, but the fact remains everything we've thrown at him hasn't stuck.

[Cali_Democrat]

7. I don't hate you

[crimson77]

14. And I love California democrats ;)

[WI_DEM]

8. so far...

Wisconsin since Ryan has been selected there have been three polls. CNN--Obama plus four, PPP Romney plus one, Marquette University (out today)--Obama up by three. This is Ryan's homestate and so far while it's more competitive I expect Obama will win.

Virginia--Poll yesterday had Obama up by five, and with Virgil Goode on ballot, Obama leads by 8, Obama has consistently been doing well in most Virginia polls.

Iowa--very close but president is making a major issue of the Ryan budget's cuts in wind power which is a major industry in Iowa. A toss up but I think that in the end Obama pulls it out.

Florida--except for that discredited poll giving Romney a 14-point lead it's very tight there and Medicare will be a major issue.

You say you would have Ryan in IA, WI & Indiana--forget Indiana, that is a lock for Romney.

As far as nothing sticking that we've thrown at Romney that is a bunch of crap. The tax issue and Bain have all worked. Medicare is working as well if you look at individual questions in polls.
As of today I'd give Obama OH, WI (narrowly), IA, NV, CO, VA and possibly NC where a large black turnout will give the state to Obama.

[crimson77]

13. Are you a fan of the West Wing?

There was an episode where Toby hears a poll that didn't come out his way and he is despondent. I think it was about english only, anyway he is depsondent to find out 2 out of 3 Americans want english only. Then the pollster tells him that inside the poll the 2/3 actually care about english only very little, that it just sounded good.

That is how I feel about Mitt Romney's taxes, DU,KOS and the media can scream about it all we want, to undecided, independant ,swing state voters, how much do you think they actually care about it? In all my time following politics if the thirst is there for information that my sway one vote, that politician will do what ever it can take to quench that thirst.

[WI_DEM]

16. Nope never watched it.

Well there have been surveys that have shown swing state voters care about the taxes and Bain and that they have formed a more negative reaction towards him because of it. Of course there has been some closing of the margin in some of these states because of Ryan and the GOP convention next week. Obama, by and large, is doing pretty well in most of these swing states. Given the state of the economy you might say he is doing exceptionally well. But I think that is because of Romney's negatives such as taxes and Bain and just his personality. Also, I think some voters understand all the GOP has done to try and destroy or slow down the recovery.

[crimson77]

19. I get jury decisioned for not liking Elizabeth Warren? and WI_DEM has never seen the West Wing

We need action on this BEST.SHOW.EVER

[TeamPooka]

22. the biggest negative Romney has that has registered with the public is...

having offshore bank accounts like a gangster or a Bond Villain.
That needs to said time and time again until the election to "independent" & blue collar Republican Voters.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

32. The crosstabs of the NBC/Journal Poll

Yesterday pretty much obliterate every one of your points about things not sticking. The poll is worth checking out, and I know it's just one poll so I'll save you some typing there, but they are very interesting.

This comes down to a couple of things: The debates and the convention speeches.

Seeing as how none of those things have happened yet, it seems a little foolhardy to throw in the towel in August. But hey different strokes for different folks.

BTW I thought your Scott Brown analysis was spot on even if I don't agree with you on Romney's victory in Nov.

[gattaca82]

36. i dont understand

i dont understand why everyone on our side is so dillusional? possibly NC? forget about NC.. i have family there and romney signs outnumber obama signs there 3-1 a big difference from 08. romney is going to take that state upwards of 7 points..

i do agree were going to take PA no trouble. the only 2 states im worried about is wisconsin and New hampshire. i really have a bad feeling about new hampshire

[CabCurious]

9. Um, no. Explain why Ryan's selection doesn't have them way ahead already in WI...

But Romulus and Ryan can't even carry their own states.

This isn't like previous elections.

We're talking about a President surfing an unprecedented economic crisis while the Republican House has pulled Congressional approval ratings to the lowest levels ever. We're talking about a GOP with a platform that's more reactionary and divisive than ever before.

And... nobody actually LIKES Romney.

I'm not saying this is a sure bet for the President, but unless something extraordinary happens to boost the GOP, they are likely to LOSE ground in Congress and lose the election.

[flamingdem]

21. Are you generally a pessimist

and do you have a track record of predicting election results?

Cuz you're scaring the heck outta me.

I pray this doesn't all hinge on whether the vote is suppressed effectively, gak.

[crimson77]

23. Are you my girlfriend? Because she would make that same observation.

I have loved and followed politics since I was 8. The first thing I did the morning I turned 18 was go register to vote. I follow this stuff as closely as I can, working 2 jobs and going to school fulltime. With that being said I don't look at everything as black or white in terms of democratic issues, I look at it more analytically and those are my analysis of the campaign so far. I have followed Romney since 94 and then when he was my Governor in 02, the stuff that 90% of this board thinks should kill him,never does. The gotcha moments that everyone thinks are going to be the game changer, never are.

As for my accurancy , I have been a member of this board for about 2 months and a lurker for about 5 years. I have routinely been shouted down and Jury decisioned into my silence about what a horrible candidate Elizabeth Warren is and how she would lose. Shockingly enough yesterday when the poll came out saying she was down 5%, heads exploded.

[flamingdem]

24. What do you think makes it hard to get things to stick on Romney?

He is certainly staggering a bit now with Akin and the tax returns. They SAY it's impacting him. Elizabeth Warren - I don't know but the Native American thing wasn't good - what else is the problem there? Brown seems to stay above the fray somehow..

[crimson77]

25. I think Romney has a mix of....

1950's patriach and a screw you attitiude, he doesnt care you want his taxes. He is not going to give them to you. I think that appeals to a certain voter. Plus he has no set of core beliefs, he just wants to be President.

As for Brown, he is your fun uncle, he'll shoot hoops and have a beer with you and tell jokes. I am a guy, and I'll admit he is a good looking guy. For a casual voter in Mass. Warren represents something large groups of voters here don't like, a Know it all. Who would rather spend the next 6 years listening to good guy Scott Brown or everyones least favorite ethics professor?

[flamingdem]

26. Got it. Romney might have some of that famous Reagan teflon

in a postmodern sense he is a cipher, thus released from all burden of truth or history. gak.

I can see Brown being more popular, who says the physical doesn't count, sadly it does and that includes gender in many cases.

Obama does have a core set of beliefs, one of which is protecting the middle class. Let's see if people perceive this is in their own interest, the "independents" that it.. and who wants to listen to Mitt for the next four years, he's a bore.

[crimson77]

27. Romney and Ryan are completely insufferable.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

28. You were rightfully given shit about your decision to vote for Senator Pin Up. Stop playing the

martyr. Lots of people here criticize the Warren campaign. None have said they would vote for that sack of shit Brown.

[Panasonic]

2. Colorado is also Obama's

So is Missouri.

Romney's running out of swing states, and fast.

Even Ohio is starting to turn blue....

[MrBig]

4. I greatly disagree about Missouri

I would be absolutely shocked if Missouri went Obama.

If anything, I'd say Missouri is Romney's. The fact that Akin is still leading according to recent polls attests to that.

[WI_DEM]

17. Co and Oh yes--Missouri No.

[LynneSin]

3. Again, this was expected after Romney announced his VP and leading into the conventions

But his improvements have been weak compared to Obama 4 years ago.

[uponit7771]

5. ***HUGE CAVEAT THIS GO AROUND*****

If you read the fine print on the polls, then things don’t look quite as good for Mr. Romney. In the polls where Mr. Obama has held a lead, it has generally been by a somewhat larger margin than when Mr. Romney does. And the polling firms that have been most active in the states recently have been a bit Republican-leaning on balance — and a few of the polls have been outright weird.

[mim89]

10. This is how I see it.

Obama: 283 with VA, PA, OH, MI, CO, NV
Romney: 255 with NC, FLA, IA, WI, NH

[WI_DEM]

18. WI can be won as can IA.

and probably NC (if turnout is large among African-Americans) and NH.

[mim89]

30. .

They definitely can, but I think that WI has been trending more Republican since 2008, with Walker winning essentially 2 elections, Russ losing to Ron and Tommy probably gonna win imo. And now with Ryan as icing.

Idk, I wouldn't be surprised either way, but as of 8/22. I'm leaning toward it being R.


With Iowa, Im on the fence, but leaning R.


NC, I can't see Obama wining especially with Perdue.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

11. North Carolina's unemployment just jumped to 9.6%...

last I heard we were somewhere around 4th WORST in the nation. Romney gaining traction doesn't surprise me in the least.

[mim89]

12. Florida

IF we could somehow pick off Florida from Romney, he would have no shot to win.

[crimson77]

15. Polling being my heroin, does anyone know?

If polling companies,aside from the daily tracking, have regular day's that they drop their weeks polling? Does say a Pew drop theirs on Thursday's

[flamingdem]

20. crap, all of this is making me nervous

[AtomicKitten]

29. Lies + $$$ make me nervous.

Nate is making me vewy vewy nervous this election.

[ananda]

31. This whole election polling thing is being manufactured..

.. to influence the vote.

Give me a break! After all the Reep nonsense over the last two months,
there's no way Romney is leading in any of the swing states.

[cali]

33. oh for pity's sake.

Of course there's a way he's leading in some swing states. It's just ostrich like to believe that "no way way Romney is leading in any of the swing states.". And no, I don't think all the polls are being manufactured to influence the vote.

[ProSense]

34. Key points

If you read the fine print on the polls, then things don’t look quite as good for Mr. Romney. In the polls where Mr. Obama has held a lead, it has generally been by a somewhat larger margin than when Mr. Romney does. And the polling firms that have been most active in the states recently have been a bit Republican-leaning on balance — and a few of the polls have been outright weird.

So this assessment is based on "Republican-leaning" and "outright weird" polls.

There is that.

[applegrove]

35. Obama needs to stop talking about Romney's tax returns, which everyone knows

show Romney paid a low interest rate, and concentrate of hitting Romney on Bain, etc .

[ProSense]

37. The Obama campaign should

"Obama needs to stop talking about Romney's tax returns, which everyone knows show Romney paid a low interest rate, and concentrate of hitting Romney on Bain, etc ."

...keep talking about and make more ads about Romney's tax returns.

The Tax Returns are Hurting Romney, Badly
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021179614

Ryan worsens Romney's tax problem(s)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021166360