Nate Silver :Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative Voters Preferred Trump In 2016

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

The conventional wisdom is that a socially liberal, fiscally conservative independent presidential candidate — like, say, Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO, who is considering just such a run — poses a threat to Democrats in 2020 by potentially dividing the anti-Trump vote. But there’s another possibility: that Schultz, or a candidate like him, could divide the pro-Trump vote instead.

I’m not going to purport to provide a comprehensive analysis of whether a Schultz-like candidate is more likely to help or hurt President Trump’s re-election chances, which is a question that can be approached from many angles. The answer will depend on what sort of candidate the Democrats nominate and what Trump’s political standing looks like late next year.

What we can do, however, is look back to 2016, when voters who are socially liberal but fiscally conservative also had to choose a presidential candidate.

Who did these voters, who are somewhere around 15 percent of the electorate, go for in 2016? The answer is complicated because it depends on which social and economic issues you look at: racial attitudes were more determinative of their presidential vote than views on gay marriage, for example. But according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a comprehensive survey of more than 60,000 voters organized by Harvard University and conducted by YouGov, these voters were slightly more likely to vote for Trump than Hillary Clinton.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/socially-liberal-fiscally-conservative-voters-preferred-trump-in-2016/

I can't imaging ANYONE who's socially liberal voting for Trump this go around.

[dsc]

1. yeah more than a few voters bought the bullshit that he was

the most pro gay Republican ever. That was total crap and now we know it.

[guillaumeb]

2. Racists preferred Trump.

Misogynists preferred Trump.

Tax cheats preferred Trump.

Fiscal conservatives? If they are informed voters, they would know that the GOP always explodes the deficit.

[Initech]

5. Tax cheats are the ones we need to watch out for.

It's not the people who watch reality TV we should be worried about. It's the people who live in big houses and more than likely own small businesses we need to focus on. These are the people who are more likely to cheat on their taxes and probably their partners that will vote conservative 10 times out of 10. They vote with their Mercedes and pocketbooks instead of the greater good of the people. I know more than a few people who are like this.

[JI7]

3. yes, we're know libertarians never have a shit about women and minorities

and that's why they are mostly white men.

[aeromanKC]

4. And they got Gorsuch and Kavannaugh

Socially liberal? Way to go voting against your own interests people.

[TheRealNorth]

6. The 2016 Election was mostly about

Russian trolls and other actors convincing likely Democratic voters to stay home. It was about propagating negative and misleading propaganda into our social networks on the internet.

[kwolf68]

7. I don't know what "fiscally Conservative" even means

I don't know what that means? Does it mean chopping taxes on the 1%, while expanding spending for the war and prison machine, blowing up the debt?


Been doing that since the 1980s, NOT A SINGLE REpublican President has NOT done this. And I am sorry slashing EPA budget means diddly.

At WHAT POINT will the "Liberal media" expose this charade? The Republic Party isn't about being fiscally Conservative, they are about entrenching power for the oligarchs.

[Poiuyt]

8. "I can't imaging ANYONE who's socially liberal voting for Trump"

I can't believe that 5% of Democrats think he's doing a good job (from a recent survey).