If Northam stays on he could put VA back in play for the Repugs in 2020

[DemocratSinceBirth]

That. Would.Be.Disastorous.

[wasupaloopa]

1. So let's find some way to get rid of him. That's the fair thing to do! This debate is making me

sick.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. He is not more important than the party

And have you stopped for one moment to think how black Democrats feel about Northam's blackface abd Klansman routine?

[Iliyah]

3. Nope.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Nancy Pelosi has called for his resignation

NARAL has called for his resignation
Planned Parenthood has called for his resignation
Vice President Joe Biden has called for his resignation
The VA Black Senate Caucus has called for his resignation
Cory Booker has called for his resignation
Terry McAullife has called for his resignation
Elizabeth Warren has called for his resignation
Shelia Jackson Lee has called for his resignation
Speaker Pelosi has called for his rsignation

...

By Monday the only person not calling for his resignation will be David Duke.

[Baltimike]

4. VA is in play for 2020 whether he stays on or not. nt

[oberliner]

5. Why do you say that?

It has been solidly blue for the last three cycles.

[Baltimike]

7. because I have lived in the area my entire life...

and VA is purple, not blue.

We're making progress down there, but it isn't solidly blue, and no Democrat running will put it in it's "will win" pile, like say, California.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Charlie Cook has it Likely Democrat

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/introducing-cook-political-reports-2020-electoral-college

[Baltimike]

9. Likely isn't solidly...VA is in play. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It will be if Northam hangs on.

[Baltimike]

11. It will be if he resigns too. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I agree with that

The national breakdown is roughly 36% conservatives and 27% liberals. Virginia is basically 33% conservatives and 26% liberals. So it is hardly a more liberal state than the national average. Virginia has fewer conservatives than most states, which allows the left-leaning moderates to carry the result over the line in our favor.

But it is a fragile situation. A Republican can absolutely win that state given a set of variables favoring that side. Every Virginian I have talked to understands that, far beyond the national perspective of merely looking at recent results.

If the national popular vote were dead-even we probably carry Virginia by tight margin, maybe 1-2%.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Not much margin for error in Virginia

Definitely a purple state and not blue, as Baltimike described.

There are more moderates in Virginia than nationally, basically 40% instead of 37%. Also nearly twice as many blacks in the Virginia electorate as the national average -- 22% to 12%. If we have slippage there or low turnout then it potentially impacts the bottom line.

Northern Virginia now has ability to dictate the state. That has happened recently and it's the reason many Democrats now take Virginia for granted. But whenever I visit that state I am more than surprised at the trend. It doesn't feel like a blue state at all if you stop at tourist sites or local eateries, or listen to local radio stations.

We can't afford missteps. That's all I'm saying. Northam definitely needs to step down. There are still 7% more conservatives than liberals in Virginia, and that's not much different than the national number of 8-9% more conservatives than liberals. Without near parity between liberals and conservatives we are totally dependent on left-leaning moderates to tilt the result in our favor. Just because it has happened since 2006 doesn't mean it is cemented. We also cannot afford to nominate someone who the state views as too liberal.