Working a trip right now as an airline pilot.

[mn9driver]

I can tell that in general, controllers are working more sectors than usual. The use of vectors and speed assignments is increasing. Spacing between departures and between arrivals is increasing. As a result, delays and late arrivals with less fuel than planned are increasing.

None of this has crossed the line into “unsafe”. Yet. ATC people are talented or they wouldn’t be doing the job. All of these things are tools that are always available to maintain safety margins, and they are using them. But the system is stressed. Everyone, controllers and pilots, are working harder to keep it safe. There isn’t unlimited room to keep doing this.

There is a point where safety will be compromised. Everyone working in the system can see it. It is getting closer. I will keep working and flying passengers until we reach that point. After that, no. I feel certain that everyone else in this environment will do their best to identify that point and do the same. I estimate that we are about two or three weeks from a major airspace slowdown/shutdown.

And there is no way to guess how long it will take to put it back together. It could be quite a while even after the shutdown is over.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Thank you for your candid comments, my dear mn9driver.

It is always good to hear from someone on the front lines, and you certainly are.

Please be safe and careful! It's scary to read about what needs to be done as well as what is being done to keep all of you safe.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. I worry about what might happen if there is an equipment failure.

i know there are backup systems, but if something relating to radar or communication stops working are there people available to repair it? What about ground-based systems like ILS and lighting?

[mn9driver]

4. A major radar failure would result in a lot of flight cancellations

Most airliners are RNP GPS capable now (though I do sometimes miss the old DC9), but the infrastructure for free flight doesn’t exist over the continental US. So we would go into a non-radar environment which would have just a fraction of the current capacity. If that happens, it would be a real shitshow.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. I'm watching an interview on MSNBC with the head of the ATC union -

she said exactly what you just said, that they are already having to reduce capacity and there are going to be more and more slowdowns and delays. I suppose you have to fly into ATL pretty regularly; it's really going to suck during the Superbowl if this continues.

Is the FAA even able to issue NOTAMs regarding equipment outages?

[mn9driver]

7. NOTAMS still work.

With that ancient technology they will probably still be coming out after we are all dead and gone. Along with NDBs

Will find out how things are in Atlanta tomorrow.

[dhill926]

3. As a frequent flyer I say first....

thank you for all you and the rest of the professionals are doing. And second...fuck!

[SoCalDem]

40. Me too.. TWO of my 3 grown sons are flying very soon

One to Singapore (again!)
and youngest & his wife to the Philippines

I always worry about them

[VMA131Marine]

6. Something like 20% of air traffic controllers have enough service time to retire

It wouldn't even take all of them to retire in the wake of the shutdown goes to dramatically reduce the capacity of the ATC system

[mn9driver]

8. Retiring and pension draw is a way to start getting paid. It won't take too many missed checks

before those eligible start heading for the exits.

[DENVERPOPS]

30. the figure

The figure I heard was closer to 30% are at an age that they can retire. I can easily imagine a controller in that situation saying "screw this" and bailing out. The controllers biggest worry is accidentally directing two airplanes into each other. Just retire and not have to worry about it, esp when it would be caused by you being overworked......

[Takket]

9. Are you in a pilot union?

Have you heard any talk of pilots going on strike if they feel it is too dangerous to fly?

[mn9driver]

22. The railway labor act makes it illegal for us to strike except under very specific conditions.

so if that happened, it would have to be a wildcat type of action.

[912gdm]

27. Are you able to stop flying overtime?

I worked for AA in res during the late 90's and I remember a few days when the pilots were pissed and stopped working overtime. It was a shitshow in my office

[SidDithers]

10. Thanks for your post...

Industry related question for you.

Are overflights through US airspace affected the same way that US domestic flights are?

We're flying from Toronto to Cozumel for a much needed family vacation in a few weeks. Flight path takes us over much of the Eastern US.

How involved are US ATCs with overflights?

Thanks
Sid

[mn9driver]

23. The high altitude enroute centers handle those flights.

They will be impacted less than the other airspace. You should be ok unless the wheels really come off.

[SidDithers]

26. Thanks...

Sid

[Scruffy1]

11. My rule on flying has always been if it is too dangerous the crew would say no.

However, the controller situation has me worried. It's not like equipment or weather problems and is beyond predictions and pilot control.All it takes is one mistake.

[bdamomma]

12. mn9driver thank you for posting

your comments during this most stressful time in our country. This is very detrimental situation due to ongoing stupidity in our government. Their poor decisions are impacting everyone and I fear this may cripple everyone even those US citizens who live outside of the US. It does have a ripple effect.

I hope there is quick resolution to this matter it does effect everyone, and thank you again for your feedback. I pray everyone in air industry gets back to work.

[gristy]

13. No air travel for me

I'll be traveling on 4 wheels until this is over. If I think I have to fly for work, I'll think some more and do it by Skype.

[USALiberal]

29. Flying MUCH safer than driving! Nt

[A HERETIC I AM]

31. To a point.

And after that point, not so much.

[USALiberal]

33. Define the point please. Nt

[A HERETIC I AM]

34. When the likelihood of a failure of a procedure to be implemented...(Edited)

or mechanical unreliability is such that an unacceptable rate of fatality is reached.

We accept that in the course of their operation, a certain number of aircraft, be they private or commercial, will have a failure of some kind resulting in death. We are no where near that level. Not even close.

As a hypothetical example, that level with automobile travel would, I suspect, be something on the order of well less than ten percent. In other words, if there were a one in ten chance that you would die every time you got into a car, something would be forced to change.


Edit to add another example - Spaceflight;

The fatality rate of spaceflight is roughly 4% or 1.4%, depending on how it is calculated, yet there is no end to the list of people willing to take that risk.

https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/14985/is-the-overall-mortality-rate-for-being-in-a-spacecraft-in-space-or-bound-for-sp

[roamer65]

14. If there is a major airliner disaster, all hell is gonna break loose.

It just may be a mass people’s march on the WH. Who knows what will happen at that point.

[calimary]

20. Or a general strike? Maybe we shouldn't wait for some disaster to happen.

[bluevoter4life]

15. Thank you for bringing this up

We are indeed working harder with less. I know of at least 5 confirmed resignations, and I'm hearing reports of two more put of Denver. The FAA is full of shit when they claim the NAS continues to be safe. We are in dangerous times my friend. Thank you and ALPA and AFA for making sure we're taken care of. We appreciate everything you guys are doing for us. In Solidarity.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

16. If they are increasing space between departures and between arrivals,

isn't that making things a whole lot safer?

Are controllers calling in sick? Are there fewer of them working so that those on duty are working longer or taking on more?

I am old enough to recall the ATC slowdowns of the late 1960s, when the controllers went by the book, meaning they were spacing out flights exactly as they should, rather than closer as they knew they could do safely. It made for massive delays, and the eventual hiring of more controllers, and perhaps an upgrade in equipment.

I also recall being aware in the 1980s that the computers they were using were horribly out of date, because fifteen or so years earlier some genius had said, "Lease the computers? Hell, no! We'll buy them!" with zero understanding of the nature of computers and how leasing made the only sense because then you got upgrades as needed.

I am a former airline employee. I worked at DCA from 1969 to 1979, and watched the tower guys age at least three years for every year they worked. And they were all great guys. The very first time I ate in the employees cafeteria (which was absolutely wonderful back then) a couple of the controllers befriended me, because they could tell I was brand new. They were friendly, not remotely inappropriate (just in case I'm not making myself clear) and remained friends the entire time I worked there.

[OMGWTF]

17. TSA and ATC need to give two hours notice and then walk off the job.

At least they can get new jobs, my USCG son and his very young family are fking slaves right now.

[burrowowl]

18. I agree!

My sister an ATC was fired by raygun and my father had to come out of retirement to train new hirees at Oklahoma and the controllers were mainly striking for safety factors. Hate rayon and shitty dump and the corporatists that put them there and ignorant voters who bought into repack propaganda.

[Stonepounder]

19. Way, way back I was a recreational pilot. (Single engine, land, VFR)

I learned to fly in Los Angeles. Let me tell you, if you want to learn to fly in the LA area, you learn WAY more than you need to pass your basic license test. Part of which is learning in a hurry to work with ATC (Air Traffic Control). Making a long explanation short, basically you let ATC know who you are, what you are, and where you are going. That way, even though you are not under their control, they know what that blip on the radar is.

One day I was flying from Ontario, CA to Santa Barbara. I was in the general area or Burbank. I got a call from ATC to watch for a PSA flight ahead, below and to the right. Took me a couple of seconds to spot it. No problem we weren't close either in distance or in altitude for me to be worried. I called back to ATC that I saw it. ATC acknowledged and told the PSA flight that they were cleared to climb to some higher altitude. PSA didn't budge, called back asking again where I was. ATC told them, a few seconds later PSA called acknowledging they saw me and were climbing to their assigned altitude.

Given what is going on now there is no way that I would consider putting a small private plane in the air and adding one more thing for ATC to deal with! These guys a total pros but there is only so much you can ask them to do and I wouldn't want to be the one that broke the camel's back!

[calimary]

21. An afternoon drive DJ worked with told me about being a controller when he was in the Marines.

It had been years since he'd held that job. But he still shuddered as if it were yesterday. He said it was an incredibly hard, stressful job. I can believe it.

I REALLY hated reagan when he fired the PATCO people. They had a right to demand better pay! That job is BEYOND grueling! I'm amazed those folks don't burn out, faster. What a monstrously stressful job! They have all my serious respect.

[lindysalsagal]

24. This, alone, should be grounds for impeachment.

[DFW]

25. I just left the USA on Monday

If this isn't resolved by April (next planned trip to North America), I may fly to Toronto and take a train down. This is not a trivial issue.

[DENVERPOPS]

28. I talked

I talked to Pilots during the period when Reagan fired all the Air Traffic Controllers.

With out exception, every single one of them was frightened as hell to fly their planes.

They said that one of them normally flies the plane, the other watches instruments and handles communication.
They said that now, one of them did all that, and the other one was constantly scanning the airspace to the front and the sides of the plane on the watch out for other planes that the inexperienced ATC personnel accidentally directed their way.

[sarge43]

32. From another forum, a sound bite from an air traffic controller

If you're successful 99.9% of the time in most jobs, you're doing great, better than great. If an ATC had the same success rate, 50 planes a day would crash.

Jaybus.

[Blue_Tires]

35. Really? What do you fly?

[mn9driver]

36. A320's

[Blue_Tires]

41. wonderful!!

[James48]

37. Fact

The 41 minute Laguadia ground stop this morning was a result of a shortage of only about a dozen people total across two facilities - Jacksonville FL and Leesburg, VA. Normally there would be an extra two or three people to work in to take over. Because of hard limits on work hours and low staffing, there wasn’t anybody to cover when less than 10% of the work force wasn’t ready to report for shift this morning.

It wasn’t intentional- it was simply overwhelmed people. And you saw the ripple in the system when we ran out of ways to cover multiple sectors with not enough people.

It’s going to take a while to fully recover. God help is if he shuts it down again. I’m afraid everybody eligible to retire will just walk in one day and hand over their paperwork. If that happens, we will see massive problems immediately.

[JudyM]

42. Can you share any updates on the situation now?

[mn9driver]

43. Currently there are still flow restrictions in place on the east coast.

Some of them are due to staffing not at 100 percent and some are due to weather, although it’s hard to clearly differentiate between the two. I will be back in the system working in a couple days and will get a better look at it then. As of last Saturday, the whole east coast was a mess of delays due to the staffing problems.

There were also a couple radar outages in the enroute structure last Friday and Saturday, but they were in Albuquerque and Salt Lake airspace and only resulted in minor problems. Again, it’s hard to say they were directly related to the shutdown.

The long term effects of this kind of paycheck instability won’t show up clearly for a while yet. Right now the system is operating within normal parameters and seems to be slowly recovering. The operational losses to the airline industry as a whole so far is in the hundreds of millions of dollars.