If McCarthy was smart (yeah, I know), he'd go independent ...
He won't, of course, but the reality is that a pro-business independent in the district, with a military/law enforcement background, and who was a local (a Mexican-American Catholic with a family wouldn't hurt, either), could challenge McCarthy and give a real fight for the seat - and, if elected with a deal on seniority, could caucus with the Democrats and actually benefit the district, which has very real needs in terms of infrastructure, ag/water and public lands policy, the military budget, poverty, etc.
McCarthy isn't that smart, but he's a local (fourth generation in Kern County, which in the scheme of things there, is a long time); someone "like" him could run as an independent and win. The split in the 2018 election in the district was 64 to 36 percent, roughly, which was a 5 percent increase for the Democrat (and the same drop for McCarthy) in 2016. Democratic registration is up something like 10-12 percent in the last couple of cycles, so the trend is there.
It's very tough for a registered Democrat, but for a strong independent (man or woman), with a military/LE background, and who was a local, could build on that for 2020, especially if McCarthy ends up being the face of the Trump Administration's defenders in the House.
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