IMHO: GOP may decide 45 is too toxic to be the candidate in 2020

[lindysalsagal]

They're showing signs of mutiny already. If Lindsey Graham is screaming against the Saudi assasins, and Putin has dumped frump by submitting intel, and the massive blue wabe, they may finally have decided that winning is impossible with the crybaby in charge.

His rallies are eroding and his ability to throw insults is dwindling: He can't afford to just make cheap shots anymore. Their efforts to rig the vote were mostly insignificant.

At some point, his 29% base isn't enough, and if the GOP is good at anything, it's crunching numbers. They never liked the idiot, and if he can't deliver....

[DetlefK]

1. They cannot afford NOT to run Trump.

In the polls, Trump has 30% hardcore-followers. That means, 60% of GOP-voters are hardcore Trump-followers.

If the Republicans run Trump, they alienate about 55% of the overall voting population. (That's the popular vote the Democrats got in the 2018 midterms.)

If the Republicans DON'T run Trump, they alienate 60% of republican voters.

[Cosmocat]

3. Yep

They created the monster, 45 took the whip from them.

[Stellar]

26. Hear, hear!! n/t.

[Garrett78]

34. This is the dilemma they face. I think they'll opt to ride out the storm.

And make their comeback in 2022 and 2024. We should be prepared for a more intelligent and charismatic demagogue to come along. Trump is just a trial balloon.

[cemaphonic]

43. Meh, the Republican base are easily led by their mass media

I do agree that anyone trying to wrest the nomination away from Trump has an uphill battle. But if someone secures the nomination in May 2020, by July Fox News will have convinced even the most hardcore Trump fans that they never liked the guy.

[Garrett78]

44. They won't need to attempt to persuade the base they never liked their cult leader.

They'll vote Republican because that's what they do.

[Cosmocat]

2. Nope

First off the hysterics over Saudi Arabia or clear overcompensation, just their way for people like Graham to try to cast themselves as honest Brokers when they're doing the dirt on other things like Russia.

They can have their histrionics over this, but what are they really going to do about it?

Second, it isn't what the elite in the party want, they've created Frankenstein's monster, the base. They always, always live in fear of their voters who they've detached from reality. And 45 still owns them.

The Republican Party most fears the people who get out and vote in their primary.

This party will follow 45 down whatever rathole he takes them.

[Sherman A1]

4. Agreed

We are seeing a whole lot of theater, but Donald is delivering the goods for the GOP at every turn, so why would they give up on him?

[brandnewday2009]

19. Rats.

I for one cannot wait to watch the reThugs choke on the ratshit spewing from their glorious leader tRump's bung.

[LupusYonderboy00]

5. Completely agree he could get tossed

I’ve said for a while now that the Senate may indeed impeach him. IF the evidence is strong; they could look STATESMAN-like by impeaching him and pretending to high road it. They’d be getting rid of him as the albatross around their necks. It would open up the primaries for fresh candidates that aren’t tainted. Peance could easily be controlled for two years then shown the door. The establishment Republicans would be back in charge, and they wouldn’t even have to worry about the hard core, mouth breathing Trump base. All they’d have to do is talk about guns, the confederate flag, and gay marriage and they’d have the mouth breathers right back in the flock.

[PatSeg]

6. It feels like they know what is coming

and they are preemptively covering their asses. Later they can claim, they had no idea what was going on and that Trump had hoodwinked them, just like he did the nation. Being the American public often has the memory of a gnat, many will forget all the times these congressional clowns cheered on their leader and all his off-the-wall antics and unprecedented lies.

[uponit7771]

7. K&R, 3rd largest off year turnout in US history says you might be right

[kwijybo]

8. Invalid assumption

You are assuming that by screaming about it, that they might actually care or even do something about it. Too many times have the R's screamed "this is wrong" and went ahead and voted for it anyways.
Also consider, while he's president, the R's are getting to pass the bills they want, pack the courts as they want, discriminate as they want... They'll support him as long as that continues.

The only solution is the dissolution of the Republican party.

[Garrett78]

41. What many, especially members of the media, have not yet accepted is...

...the reality that most Republicans aren't simply people with a different take on tax rates or the precise role of government. These are, rather, horrible people out to destroy lives for personal gain. Horrible, horrible people. Trump is part of a continuum, the result of 50 years of increasingly unhinged and cruel rhetoric and policy.

I don't watch any of the fawning over GHWB and have no desire to watch the funeral service. The coverage, based on what little I've failed to avoid seeing, is fit for an absurdist writer.

[Martin Eden]

9. If Trump decides to run, how will he be stopped?

Rethug primary voters still love him.

[thesquanderer]

10. I think they can't stop him from running. Unless House impeaches and Senate convicts. (n/t)

[beachbum bob]

11. voters decide, not GOP politicians

and right now, trump is a shoo-in

[brooklynite]

12. Please remember that a month ago, Grahama was wrapping himself around Trump over Kavanaugh

[ProfessorGAC]

37. Yes, He Changes Every Time The Wind Alters Direction

Using Graham as a measurement is not a very good idea.

He'll change in his mind in a couple days.

[MrScorpio]

13. They have to run him, they have no other choice...

The GOP has put their political distillation into overdrive, especially after so many non-Trumpians were cast aside during the midterms.

They’re all Trump’s Party now. It’s much less a major political party than it is a cult of personality.

Hell or high water, they will see to it that Trump gets put on a ballot.

Now, if he gets primaried, that’s another story. But I’m quite sure that The Cult will mercilessly attack any and all challengers, so that scenario is likely to be a blood bath.

[watoos]

29. I can see Kasich challenging him.

He hung with Trump fairly well the last time.

[Garrett78]

35. Kasich got 161 delegates. Trump got 1441. Not even Cruz was close.

Trump will destroy any primary challenger if he doesn't opt to resign.

[madinmaryland]

54. Uhmm. The only primary state Kasich won was his own (Ohio).

[lsewpershad]

14. 2020?

He needs to go now.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

15. When the money stops coming in...

to the GOP from their corporate sponsors, that’s when things change in the party. That’s the real “base”.

[JI7]

16. his base makes up a majority of the Republican party

[Goodheart]

17. They're toast.

[octoberlib]

18. I don't think Trump will run again but not because the GOP thinks he's too toxic.

[Garrett78]

36. I'm leaning that way, as well. If he can be convinced he'll lose, he'll resign.

And the Republican Party will do what they can to minimize the short-term losses before making a comeback in 2022.

[Jarqui]

20. If FOX News along with GOP leadership tells the deadheads Trump is no good

24/7 day after day, his numbers will drop significantly.

They're the propaganda wing of the Republican party. Not Trump.

They don't care about Trump. They care about hanging on to power.
Trump was a means for them to win the White House. A means to stack judges they like on the courts. A means to a stupid tax cut for those that fund them.
If Trump becomes a liability to their grip on power, they will destroy him and trample his carcass in a stampede to snatch whatever power they can get their mitts on.

Mueller may well be a means to help them snatch power from Trump and in the interim as way to constrain Trump.

Trump is stupid. They're playing him and enabling him only as long as he suits their purposes.

These are ruthless people.

[Buckeyeblue]

21. It has to be 45's idea not to run

Otherwise, he will sabotage any other repugs campaign.

He will need some sort of deal. No family indictments (fed and state level) and a guarantee that he won't be spoken poorly about. Maybe some money.

[Kashkakat v.2.0]

22. LOL- that was maybe what they were going to decide in 2016! nt

[lancelyons]

23. The GOP has NO SAY on this. I wish people would understand.

The GOP has NO SAY on this. I wish people would understand. Its his VOTERS that have the say.

The previous GOP was thrown out the door in favor of the GOP definition Trump wanted.

WHY... Because he has the voters (previous GOP Base) squarely on his side. A large chunk of them are the Religious folks in our country.

That is where Dems screwed up. They took the neutral to Religion path and the GOP turned that into an Anti religion path.. the DEMS never moved to change that narrative and so now virtually all the Religious groups are with Trump. The Democratic Party is "against religion" according to the religious folks.

The GOP as you knew it is dead.

[titaniumsalute]

24. I have been pondering this for awhile

Now that the midterms are over you can bet that the right is very nervous. Some things to think about this:

1. Senate - 2020 has a slightly more difficult Senate situation for Republicans. As of now they would lose probably Susan Collins Maine and Cory Gardner Colorado. That would put Dems at 49. There might be a good chance that Dems lose Alabama. So 48 Dems. Swings could end up being Iowa, North Carolina, and Arizona. A sweep of those would mean 51 Dems. I don't see how Trump will help any of these states as of today. He is really getting toxic and has lost the Independents and has increased Dem turnout.

2. House. Clearly the Republicans want to win the House back. But they need to win back 20 seats in order to do this. I simply don't see how that will happen with Toxic Trump in 2020.

3. Governors. 2019 Dems now will be in 23 state Gov mansions. Big swing from 2018. They can help protect voting rights in states, battle Republican gerrymandering, etc. That makes it tougher to cheat IMHO.

I don't see how Trump increases approvals. He's already promised the world to his base. The economy seems to be flatlining or even slightly declining today. His repetitive bullshit tweets start losing their luster. People in this country do have short attention spans. I think many will look at the next new shiny object.

Frankly the Dems need to run someone who is very tough, very smart, very savy, and with a social media team that can battle the Trump bullshit at every turn.

[cab67]

25. in early 2017, I'd have agreed.

I actually thought he'd be so toxic to the Republican brand that they'd give him the heave-ho before the midterm elections.

I no longer think this. The Orange One's core is either unwilling or unable to see reason. Without it, Republicans can't get through their primaries intact.

[Cheviteau]

27. Am I Seeing Things Differently?

Discussions sites and cable news are forever talking about Trump running in 2020. Why anyone would think he could make it that far is beyond me. Trump and his cabal are finished. Will Trump run? Can he win? Will he be the nominee? Will he keep Pence as VP? This is an attention-getting word-play exercise. Stick a fork in that pork chop. He's finished. Done. As charred as the hamburgers from my grill on the 4th of July.

[lonely bird]

28. They have no choice

The Republican Party has no choice but to run Trump unless he resigns or is impeached. They are getting radical reactionary judges put in place. They have gotten tax cuts.

But more importantly if they do not run him they will obliterate any chance they have of getting the presidency again. While the Mango Mussolini may not win in 2020 the alternative would be that he runs as an independent which would completely split standard "I vote Republican because my family or I have always voted Republican" and radicalized racist, misogynist, nativist MAGA heads.

They created this monster by allowing this monster. They will stand behind the monster. The only alternative is a smoking gun from Mueller and even then Republicans cannot be counted upon to put country over party.

[watoos]

30. Kasich can beat Trump under the right circumstances.

The economy can slump.
Wait until some Trumpers see their tax returns are much smaller this year. They will realize that the Trump tax cuts for the rich was a scam.
What Mueller produces will have to have an effect on some Trumpers.
People are losing health care again.

People, you are looking at conditions the way they are right now, not the way they will be in 2020.

[Garrett78]

38. "What Mueller produces will have to have an effect on some Trumpers."

You overestimate them.

[Polybius]

42. Kasich can never beat Trump in the Republican primaries

He's hated on the right. Just check into Free Republic and search for his name, if you can tolerate the stench.

[lonely bird]

50. His base, his real base,

is not interested in tax cuts alone. They are interested in jobs obviously but they are also interested in racist, misogynist, nativist rhetoric. Lacking that from a John Kasick, who ain't all that anyway (I live in NE Ohio), the base will fragment or stay home. I just don't see anyone getting the response from the radicalized reactionary domestic terrorists that Trump has because Trump had the balls as well as stupidity to inflame the radicals.

[amcgrath]

31. Personally I want him to live a long and miserable life in jail

But strategically, the Republicans would do much better with him dead.

It would allow him to be spoken of as a martyr in the strong red states, and suitably disdained in the less pro-Trump states.

It is the only way they can retain that base that they are so afraid of losing.

Court cases aside, out of office, Trump would never be able to keep his mouth shut, maligning other republicans and the job they are doing compared to his.

If I were Trump, I'd be asking Mueller for protective custody.

[Nitram]

32. They'll have to run that by their base, first.

The GOP base is 100% behind Trump.

[benzene252]

33. Paul Ryan!

He knows exactly what Trump did and that there's no way he'll be re-elected or anyone connected to his administration. He going to try to ride in on his white horse and save the republican party. if the orange dingle-berry can't get his negative approval ratings below 55% Ryan is going to primary him.

[Garrett78]

39. Trump's approval rating among Republicans is still sky high.

But it's possible Trump will be convinced to resign. The Mueller investigation could produce so much damaging information that, like with Nixon, Trump is talked into resigning. Republicans in Congress, though, will want to avoid the appearance that they are pushing him out. They can't alienate the base.

Trump can claim he wants to return to running his vast empire, spend more time with family, that the country doesn't deserve him, blah, blah, blah.

[Azathoth]

40. They thought he was too toxic in 2016. Their ralk-radio base thought otherwise

The GOP *IS* the Limbaugh audience. The remaining establishment stragglers are just along for the ride. It doesn't matter whether he's viable in a general election.

[Honeycombe8]

45. He won't be around to run in 2020. But even if he were, they can't stop him.

The Dem. Party tried to get Jimmy Carter not to run for re-election, but did no good. The kind of person that wants to be President, wants to keep on being President, and to keep trying to get elected as President.

[SWBTATTReg]

46. Personally, IMHO, I don't care who the repugs nominate for 2020. I'm not wasting my time...

or breath or energy or anything anymore on these pieces of garbage traitors. We got serious issues to deal w/ here in the country and obviously the repugs aren't interested in fixing.

[eppur_se_muova]

47. This will increase the chances of a 3rd-party challenge.

Could be a "moderate" Republican, could just be someone whose ego tells him/her it's an opportunity to make a run. If it's someone who appeals to Rs more than Ds, that could be really good news.

[Garrett78]

48. Someone like Kasich may determine he's got nothing to lose.

I wouldn't look forward to the media referring to Kasich as a "moderate" or even "centrist." That's how the Overton Window has been moved so drastically rightward.

[DFW]

49. Frankly, I think they decided this to be the case long ago

The question is, how do they get rid of him? This is like a cancer they left untreated for too long. There are now too many MAGGOTS out there, too many judges he "appointed" that they confirmed, too many odious laws enacted, too many environmental regulations ditched, two too many second rate Supreme Court Justices and too many corrupt cronies inserted into the government for them to admit they enabled Trump to lead us in the wrong direction, that he is their creation.

To get back to the cancer analogy, they have let it go on too long--to the point where removing it surgically might kill the patient. They are looking for alternative treatment at this point. Resignation for health reasons, resignation because "I was a success. My work is done here," resignation because he wants to spend more time with Melania and Barron (OK, nobody will believe that one, but are there really many more who would believe the first two?). I think the Republicans dread impeachment precisely because they would DEARLY love to see him removed from office--they just don't want any of the blood on their hands.

It would devastate the Republican Party to have a Republican President removed from office against his will by the votes of Republican Senators. Since it would be the right thing to do, it would therefore be wrong to expect them to do it. They would be pleased to point the finger at the evil "soshalist libbruls" for doing their work for them, but while they are perfectly happy to see the smoking gun, they want it in our hands with our fingerprints all over it.

[underpants]

51. The large field allowed him to "win" with just 20% of primary votes

I agree with you.

First Fox put him in every Monday morning to share his insights...and fan the birther flame. Once he started running even the once almighty Fox News couldn't put him away. And lord knows they tried.

He's the only person in that office who didn't get a majority of votes in both the primary and general. But he got enough to win the nomination.

The wall to wall free coverage was a huge part in both.

[AlexSFCA]

52. trump likely has the highest approval rating among repub primary voters

Bush W was never as popular among them. Today’s gop primary voters have blind loyalty to trump, they never had that for other repubs.

[LonePirate]

53. Some party leaders may detest him but the rank and file voters adore him so he's not going anywhere.