Beto O'Rourke is going to run and Beto O'Rourke is going to win. We need a Beto O'Rourke (Group)

[grantcart]

One of the known factors that ran against Sec Clinton that wasn't really discussed was the issue of voter fatigue. There is a reasonable chance that if Sec. Clinton's last name was anything but Clinton that she would have likely won the office. There is also the known voter fatigue factor that occurs after any party has held the White House for 8 years. People forget how bad it was when the Republicans left and the improvements under Obama were steady and incremental but after any party has the WH for 8 years about 20% of the population is highly likely to vote for the other party.

Without question the most refreshing alternative to the older generation of leaders on both sides is Beto.

Beto has reversed his previous statement that he was not available for 2020:

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/26/beto-orourke-no-longer-ruling-out-2020-presidential-run/

EL PASO – Beto O'Rourke, coming off a closer-than-expected race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is no longer ruling out a 2020 presidential run.

During his Senate campaign, the El Paso congressman declared he would "not be a candidate for president in 2020" regardless of the outcome. But on Monday, O'Rourke kept the door open to a White House bid during a town hall in El Paso and admitted his resistance to higher office was no longer as unequivocal.

During the town hall, an audience member asked O'Rourke if he was running in 2020. In response, O'Rourke said he is currently focused on spending time with his family and finishing his term in the House, which ends Jan. 3. "And then," O'Rourke added, "Amy and I will think about what we can do next to contribute to the best of our ability to this community."

While there are many outstanding leadership traits that O'Rourke showed in the Senate race including the ability to work hard and explain complicated progressive issues in a charming way what really stands out with O'Rourke is his ability to understand the interworking of social media, the internet and traditional media in a way that moved the masses as they felt a personal connection to him.

Moving at the speed of light he is going to make all of the other candidates look fatigued. He will not only visit every county in Iowa, he will live stream his engaging meetings with farmers on Facebook. He will out fox the Russian bots and leave Trump huffing and puffing.

All of the other good Democratic candidates will be tied to their jobs while he will be visiting and establishing sophisticated support infrastructure in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina where he excels at both retail politics and transmitting that enthusiasm to a larger stage.

He will also dramatically increase the participation of college age and post college age students and Spanish speaking Americans which will make him formidable in AZ, TX, FL.

If you are interested in forming a Beto O'Rourke (Group) please respond below. We will need a group of leaders to petition the admins and set up the hosts, my schedule prohibits me from doing it but the time has come for us to seriously consider O'Rourke as the next nominee of the party and to form a group that will promote his nomination.

[jcgoldie]

1. I'm in.

I'm so fucking proud of Beto!

[Autumn]

2. Great idea. I hope he runs.

He's what we need.

[bearsfootball516]

3. I'd be thrilled with Beto either leading of being VP on the ticket.

[SWBTATTReg]

4. Good suggestion. Would go a long ways towards educating us on DU about this candidate, but ...

perhaps make it a more generic category to reflect all upcoming presidential candidates (democratic of course). Again, good suggestion.

[grantcart]

10. We actually have 15 Groups for different candidates

Groups are a special entity that allows supporters to gather and discuss that particular candidate or group.

The rules are set up so that they don't have to allow any contentious back and forth that is common in various forums.

You can see the list of groups here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1099

[SWBTATTReg]

15. Thanks so much for FYI! Take care, nt

[vsrazdem]

5. I think it would be great if he would run. Let's see what he can do. I'm in.

[libdem4life]

6. I really admire him...lord knows...I just hope he's not a bit premature.

OTOH, it can't hurt him in any way to pursue his options...especially with many folks helping him. After the Kennedy sorrows and political gulf for decades of the absence of liberal candidates with character and national charisma...count me in.

I love Julian Castro, but somehow I don't think it's his time...I don't exactly know why.

But with Beto, I could actually get excited about politics again !!

[MrsCoffee]

7. Clinton did win. I don't care who is sitting in the office right now.

I'm all for Beto, but let's not start pretending that Trump was elected legitimately.

[jcgoldie]

8. +1

You said it.

[grantcart]

11. and I agree with you 100%

My only point, which I may not have made clearer, is that if Sec Clinton had come to the nomination without any association to Pres Clinton that she would have even high levels of support.

Some folks just want change for the sake of change regardless of the consequences. In Sec. Clinton's case she got both people fatigued with the Clinton legacy and people fatigued with the same party in the WH for 8 years.

[StevieM]

9. Clinton lost because of James Comey. Without his illegitimate actions she would have won easily.

She almost did win decisively, until Comey intervened one last time with just 11 days to go.

As for Beto, I agree he would be a good nominee. I like Tom Steyer a lot too.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. She would have won narrowly minus Comey

Maybe 1-1.5 points more in the popular vote and therefore dragging those pivotal states and the electoral college along.

Comey changed the outcome but Hillary's lead was always overstated in polling. The white working class vote was not factored properly in either participation or percentage. Similar to Florida this year where the polling assumed greater Democratic participation but the electorate was older and more white than any of the models allowed.

Regardless, grantcart is correct regarding name and fatigue. Anyone else saying the same things as Hillary would have been viewed as a revelation. Reaction would have been through the roof when Candidate A dismissed Trump as a Putin "puppet" during debate.

Tired conventional wisdom doesn't fit Beto at all...not with whether or not he should run, and not regarding how he would fare.

Anyone who holds that conventional wisdom needs to quietly throw it away. It won't hurt and eventually you'll look smart.

[StevieM]

19. First of all, if HRC had won by 1-1.5 more in the popular vote she also would have won Florida.

The media acts like Florida wasn't close, but it was. 1 point more nationally would have meant 1.5 more in Florida. So even under your assessment you can add that to the list.

Second, I disagree that her lead was overstated. Scientific methods were used to figure out who was voting and who they were voting for. And I think people were more likely to hesitate to tell the voters they were voting for Clinton than for Trump. There was more rage directed at her than towards Trump in many quarters and a lot of people didn't want to say they were voting for her in front of hostile family members. So IMO the polls understated her lead, not overstated it.

Third, all of these polls were taken after the two earlier Comey interventions, which had a dramatic impact on the race to begin with.

I don't discount the Clinton fatigue factor, but she was running against Trump, not a generic Republican. Against Trump she was going to win handily had it not been for the fake email scandal.

[VOX]

12. I could go there. He campaigns like fury, has "the fire," and is charismatic.

With a solid pick for veep, Beto would be a force to be reckoned with.

[Old Vet]

14. Iam beginning to agree with you............

[pamela]

13. I'm there. (with bells on)

He's live on Facebook now, cooking dinner with Amy, Molly and the pet snake. He's making chicken piccata.

[dalton99a]

17. He will bring tremendous energy and star power to the campaign

[TeamPooka]

18. I'm all for getting all this Beto stuff out of GD and into its own group. Beto is a huge long shot

He could have been a real contender if he won the Senate seat.
I think he's VP pick at best to put pressure on Texas electorally but that's it.
Even then I don't think he'd help the Candidate win Texas since he didnt win it this year.

[nolabear]

20. I'm in because I'm curious.

I promise not to irritate anyone. He’s certainly got something. I have to decide if he’s got the experience to fix the shit whomever wins is going to inherit. But he’s actually doing videos again and people are responding. He sure seems interested in staying relevant. So I’d like to see a group.

Besides, I could use an antidote to the fresh hell of every day.

[moondust]

21. Dunno.

For quite a few years I've been wary of White House candidates from Texas. Why? What have past Texans brought us after landing in the White House? Long war in Vietnam. Desert Storm. Endless war in Afghanistan--possibly unnecessary. Needless invasion of Iraq based on lies followed by long war. LBJ, two Bushes and Cheney.

Is the gun culture so strong in Texas that many Texans actually favor gunboat diplomacy? I don't know what Beto's positions are on guns or diplomacy--or those of his advisors--but I doubt he could come as far as he has without significant support for the insane Texas gun culture.

[andym]

22. A Beto O'Rourke group would be a great idea.

I think he is a top tier candidate with an excellent chance to win and act as a unifying force in America-- something that is clearly needed now. I believe that Beto has 3 out of 4 characteristics necessary for a Democrat to win:

The Democratic nominee is most likely going to propose a similar set of policies-- probably very similar to what Hillary Clinton ran on in 2016. Also, each candidate should be able to bring a group of well qualified experts with them to help govern technically. Then, the key differences to distinguish someone as a top candidate are: 1) their story (Obama does have a more compelling story than O'Rourke, but few can match his background story), and 2) how authentic they are (not acting like a politician) and 3) how well they connect with regular people from all walks of life, and 4) how well they inspire others to join their cause and project optimism with a vision for the future.

The best Democratic candidates: FDR, JFK, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had at least 3 out of these 4. FDR, JFK and President Obama were fortunate to have all four, which is why Obama was able to defeat the huge pre-primary favorite Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Someone like Beto has three out of the four and will be a top tier candidate if he runs. It's too early to know how good of a national candidate he will be until we see him in action on the national stage, but his Texas Senatorial campaign gives us a strong hint that he will be formidable.