Ukraine Declaring War

[orangecrush]

Link to tweet

?s=19

Link to tweet

?s=19

[onecaliberal]

1. This is 100 kinds of not good.

[orangecrush]

3. Yup

[AllyCat]

29. No joke. OMG this is terrible.

[roamer65]

2. 1914.

[orangecrush]

4. Precisely.

[uponit7771]

35. +1, Red Don is more like Whilhelm and one of the reasons why France punished

... the Germans so much is they follow such an overtly dumb as such as Whilhelm into anything like war instead of rebelling against his rule.

[certainot]

36. fuck the history, start over

[NBachers]

39. My thought exactly.

[OAITW r.2.0]

5. So which side will Trump support?

I already know the answer.

[orangecrush]

7. Uh...

Putin?

[Takket]

6. hoping this is a lot of bluster and nothing major comes of this..............

we need cooler heads to prevail. before people start dying.

what is putin up to? Rest assured anything he does is with the intention of having an effect 5 or 6 steps ahead of what anyone realizes.

[orangecrush]

8. He want to roll on Ukraine

Before the democrats take the house, it looks like.

[Takket]

11. Annex it? Like he did crimea?

To what end? Crimea I think made sense. Black Sea access and lots of Russians there anyway. But why the rest? Ukraine will fight back. It will be a bloody mess. Oil?

Heard Putin in some hot water back home over pensions. Maybe this is just a big whip up the nationalists distraction.

[marylandblue]

31. To restore the Russian Empire

Ukraine can't win, Europe can't help without the US, and the US will do nothing.

[Achilleaze]

43. US is crippled with a five-time republican draft-dodger "in charge"

freaking republicans - they'll be happy to send our sons and daughters off to fight and die, while the Trump clan stays safely squirreled away in their taxpayer-fuded mansions and golf courses.

[sinkingfeeling]

19. Ukraine has been fighting a war in Donbass for several years. Over 10,000

Ukrainian military deaths and over 3,000 civilian deaths since 2014.

[Turbineguy]

9. Georgia was sucked into this situation too.

All they got out of it was a bunch of dead soldiers.

[orangecrush]

10. This is ominous

Hope things cool off.

[pangaia]

14. I predicted this 2 years ago. And I'm no smarter than anyone else.

And not just Ukraine snd Georgia, you better believe it.

[orangecrush]

17. ...

[oberliner]

12. What is BNL News?

I can't find any info about it other than its twitter feed.

[orangecrush]

16. ruh - roh.

[oberliner]

18. Thanks for the compliment

I am usually good at this sort of thing but I literally cannot find any info about this source.

If you can, please share!

[OAITW r.2.0]

21. It didn't happen Obetliner. Ask Trump or Putin! Jeesh, do I have to do the propaganda for you? nt

[oberliner]

26. Huh?

I am just trying to figure out what this source is. There seems to be no info on it.

[orangecrush]

15. Me neither

Seems legit, though.

No right wing slant, straight news stories.

[Adrahil]

20. oh boy....

Not good. But they may not have a choice if the Russians cut off sea access to the Mariupol.

[orangecrush]

23. They have.

They parked a tanker across the access, blocking it.

[superpatriotman]

22. Any better or newer sources?

[orangecrush]

24. ...

paywall...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/fffa63c4-f0c5-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

[orangecrush]

25. better

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/11/25/europe/russia-ukraine-kerch-strait-intl/index.html

[superpatriotman]

28. Thanks

Here's NATO's harshly-worded response:
"NATO is closely monitoring developments in the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait, and we are in contact with the Ukrainian authorities. We call for restraint and de-escalation," the statement said

[orangecrush]

44. Thank you!

[Igel]

27. No, it didn't escalate quickly.

It's just that we've been looking elsewhere. It's ramped up gradually on the eastern front in the Donbas.

Then this:
https://informator.news/boevyky-nachaly-masshtabn-y-obstrel-ukraynskykh-pozytsyy-na-donbasse/

Now, my Ukrainian's a bit shaky, but it's probably better than most American's:

"Fighters began large-scale shelling of Ukrainian positions after the provocation by the RF against ships of the Ukrainian Naval Forces in the Sea of Azov.

This, according to local residents.

After the seizure of the Ukrainian vessels the fighters heightened tensions in the Donbass by shelling the civilian population and Ukrainian military forces. Let us recall that at present the Natural Security and Defense Council is holding an emergency session on whether to impose a state of martial law

."

"Voennoie polozhenn'ia" I take to be "martial law" not "state of war". Google translate, as much a foe as friend, agrees. "Voennyi stan" is "state of war."

In other words, the information you see in the domestic US press is *not* all the news or everything that's going on. Consider this to be an "unknown unknown" that's suddenly partly a known known and partly a known unknown (since it's been made salient that there are things going on we don't necessarily know about).

[Doodley]

30. Trump will urge Ukraine to appease and bend over to Russia.

[Bucky]

32. Crimea Sudetenland

today is just the next step

[orangecrush]

45. Agree.

[Xolodno]

33. Not likely.

Putin once quipped he could be in Kiev in two weeks.....and I think he was being conservative.

If Ukraine falls for the trap, you won't see Russian tanks rolling in Kiev...but you can bet your ass they will stop just a few miles outside of Russian supported eastern Ukraine...and then Annex it.

The common theme around here is that Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union or Russian Empire...and its Bullshit. The Russian Empire and Soviet Union were economic blunders that cost both empires way too much to maintain. The productive economic areas with Russian majorities will be the only areas Putin wants.

Hence why I roll my eyes when the Baltic's exclaim they are next. The major economic centers there do not have Russian majorities and as such would resist to cost Moscow heavily. But a NATO base always brings in additional revenue...

[Haggis for Breakfast]

34. Might I recommend an excellent book to you.

Masha Gessen, "Vladimir Putin: Man Without a Face." She does a thorough job of chronicling Putin's rise and his ultimate goal: a re-united and re-constituted Soviet nation-state.

Just because westerners don't see the logic, don't grasp the economics or understand the ambition/drive of the man, doesn't mean that this is not EXACTLY what he is up to. One does not need to be Kissinger to connect the dots.

[Xolodno]

41. Thanks...I'll put it on my list.

But I am an Economist. So I think in those terms.

Revitalizing the Soviet or Russian Empire makes sense in prestige...but economics, makes no sense. And Putin has followed economic sense.

He could have took Georgia...but didn't because it would cost too much.

Likewise, he could end the Armenian-Azerbaijan issue...but doesn't because there is nothing to gain from it other than continued conflict.

Belarus at one point floated the idea of reunifying with Russia....and Putin rebuffed it.

There is more....

But his actions speak clearly, he doesn't want an empire that will lead to the same conclusion. Many here take his comment that the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the greatest geo-political disaster as his wanting of a return of the Soviet Empire. They are wrong. The Soviet Union itself was a mess, Lenin, Stalin, Krushev, etc. all redefined Soviet State boundaries based on their whims....Russian areas end up in another country...non-Russian areas end up in Russia.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

46. I understand your perspective more clearly now.

Economists and political scientists see the world differently.

I don't think Putin wants to restore the entire Soviet Union. That makes no sense. Economically, it would be suicidal. Politically, it will bring more sanctions from more nations and further disrupt his plans for growth. But, his ambition IS to be seen as the next Iron Man of Russia. This weekend's incident with Ukraine is not a coincidence. The Kerch Bridge is, and has been, a flash point for several years. Impounding vessels and seizing crew members could be seen as an act of war. If he closes off access to the Sea of Azov, there will be open conflict.

As a political scientist, I view last weekend's news as dangerous news.

[triron]

37. From the NYT: Martial law in Ukraine?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/briefing/brexit-ukraine-france.html

[BamaRefugee]

38. "YOU CANNOT IMPEACH A WARTIME PRESIDENT". This is obviously their plan.

[Small-Axe]

40. The thread title is irresponsible.

[SunSeeker]

42. Ukraine's President has made it clear they have not declared war.

During a meeting of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, President Petro Poroshenko described the Russian actions as "unprovoked and crazy".

He said he would ask parliament on Monday to introduce martial law but stressed that this did not mean a "declaration of war". "Ukraine does not plan to fight anyone," he said.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defence ministry announced that orders had been given to put the military on full combat readiness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46340283

[UTUSN]

47. K&R for, uh, shouldn't this be top o'th'page?!1 Or is it wag-the-dog?

[orangecrush]

48. ...