Sinema up to 41% on Predictit

[Alhena]

She was at 10% or so right after the election. Supposedly we'll know a lot more after 5 pm Arizona time.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3812/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-race-in-Arizona-in-2018

[AJT]

1. Please, if you're going to put things in the general discussion,

if you're referencing candidates make it clear who they are. I am not from AZ and don't know if Sinema is a dem or repub ot what this person was running for.

[redstateblues]

2. Did you hear there was an election a couple days ago?

That was a pretty high profile race in the late John McCain’s state in the battle to try to flip the Senate

[Sherman A1]

6. A

“Charming” response.

[StevieM]

7. Come on, different people follow national politics to differing degrees. Not everyone knows

who all the candidates are in all of the states.

The important thing is that the poster is voting Democrat, supporting our party, and is posting here on our wonderful site in order to do his/her part to rally the faithful.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

9. Flake's not McCain's. nt

[kstewart33]

3. Kyrsten Sinema is the Democratic candidate for the US Senate.

Her opponent is Martha McSally who has lied repeatedly through her teeth that she is a champion for pre-existing conditions protection but she voted to end the protection dozens of times in the US Congress.

No problem with your need for info. Many, many high profile races this year - difficult to keep up!

[Sherman A1]

4. Agreed

It is often hard to keep up with all the names despite some of the races being higher profile than others.

[Aristus]

5. Yeah, I was thinking 'Sinema' was some kind of kinky film-genre.

And that a lot of people on social media liked it.

I'm a

[Tom Rivers]

8. What's Predictit's record?

I think Sinema has a good chance to come out with the win if the pattern of more democrats voting absentee or by mail holds, but I'm confused why that sites odds would change so much until we know more about exactly how many outstanding ballots there are and how many will actually be allowed to be counted.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. This is an unusual situation

Obviously. Overall record beforehand doesn't really align with reaction to this type of change.

Betting markets are a numerical representative of wisdom of the crowd at a point in time.

Sinema is ahead. Wow. But how much ahead? Is she a cinch? The markets aren't perfect in that regard but they provide some idea, just like there are now websites that provide real-time odds on football games based on the score at the given time. Late touchdowns change the likelihood dramatically, and that's essentially what Sinema has managed...a couple of late touchdowns but still time remaining on the clock.

That's why she is 70-75 and not 99%