Are betting markets the best places to get an early read on races?

[Alhena]

News media is hesitant to release exit poll data too early, but where there's a buck to be made, smart money will always try to get in first. That being the case, are betting markets like Predictit a good source of info?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms

It's the election-day trends I'm interested in, since any sharp movements starting around now would seem likely to be based on exit poll data.

Anyone know if this is, in fact, a good place for reading tea leaves?

[MontanaMama]

1. brooklynite just posted these links:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211374129

[OhZone]

2. I like predictwise -

https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/2018-congress-house

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Iowa Electronic Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets

The Iowa Electronic Markets is a futures market run for research and teaching purposes. Traders can buy and sell real-money contracts based on their belief about the outcome of an election or other event. Using this "wisdom of crowds," the price of a contract at any given time is a forecast of the outcome.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

6. looks like it tracks the mood of 'news'

[Awsi Dooger]

8. It is a mathematical depiction of current wisdom of the crowd

And that mathematical depiction from gamblers is far superior to that of pundits or public who lack a numerical grasp

[Hermit-The-Prog]

9. they're betting on how the crowd is reacting to the news reacting to the crowd

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Predictit is good for early indication of wild swings

Check the markets that are moving most, the so-called "Biggest Movers."

That will give an indication of trends that bettors may pick up on, long before the mainstream media.

The current example is NJ-02 which has had a severe upward move toward Democratic likelihood, from basically 50/50 up to 96 cents

https://www.predictit.org/legacy/Browse/BiggestMovers

When that type of move hits major markets like House or Senate control, or a pivotal race, then you really have something.

[beachbum bob]

10. Predict it is a joke, refer to 2016

[beachbum bob]

5. No

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Certainly preferable to pretending Puerto Ricans can help Gillum by 4-6%

Gamblers would understand that type of adjustment is preposterous. It's not even 1/10th of that.

Adjusters don't like betting markets or betting period. I've noticed that on sports sites and political sites. Far preferable to take a variable and make it anything you want it to be, regardless of the mathematical realities.