I appreciate Steve Schmidt saying/suggesting if a blue wave is coming to the House,

[elleng]

it's foolish to think it's NOT coming to the Senate.

[lapfog_1]

1. Love the optimism

but we can vote here in California and remove every fucking repuke from our U.S. House representation... which is halfway to flipping the House, but it would do nothing in the Senate.

That said... keeping my fingers crossed.

[OAITW r.2.0]

2. Could happen....

I think this will be unlike any election I can remember (and my 1st Presidential election was 1972). I think the country is more woke about the political crisis we are in and their solution (voting) then at any time in the last 46 years.

[Garrett78]

3. It's just a matter of how big the wave is. A couple years ago...

...any talk of us taking control of the Senate in January 2019 would have been considered delusional. Just keeping the deficit at 2 seats would have been considered a major victory (that's arguably still the case). The Senate map is very unfavorable this year.

And, frankly, I'll be shocked (and ecstatic) if we take the Senate. But it's not a completely crazy notion at this point.

[AlexSFCA]

4. I have irrational gut feeling that Beto wins

can’t explain it, just strong gut feeling of destiny. I think it may become the biggest political upset since trump victory. Part of this is rational: cruz is not attracting alt right white nationalists which are now trump’s primary base, this is due to cruz’s cuban heritage and alt right war on cruz in 2016 where breitbart launched a smear campaign against him and his family. Not that they’d vote for Beto but they may not vote at all.

[elleng]

5. With you, but NOT irrational, imo.

[YessirAtsaFact]

6. Half a million new voters on Texas already

Probably more by the end of early voting

They did not come out to support Trump

[AlexSFCA]

7. and if Beto wins then NV and AZ should be a piece of cake

[YessirAtsaFact]

8. I expected them to flip from the get go

I’m more concerned about ND, MO and IN.

Of course we could end up losing 2 or 3 seats if the wave isn’t that big.

I have the feeling it’s a tsunami, but my track record on predictions sucks.

[RockRaven]

9. Except that a blue wave in the Senate would be merely holding even - Dem Sen.s winning in red states

like IN, WV, ND, MO, MT, etc.

The Senate seats up for election are those which were up during Obama's re-election in 2012. That being a presidential year election, and Obama coat-tails means there are Dem incumbents who likely couldn't hold on except for a blue wave. There are a whole bunch of them and you cannot expect to bat 1.000. Sadly even if the blue wave sweeps in NV and/or AZ, and even by some miracle TX or TN also, we'd need a blue tsunami to get control of the Senate (hold *every* seat + add two, or lose one + add three).

Absolutely Senate control is possible, but a blue wave coming to the Senate could look as unimpressive as just holding even.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Same thing I was going to say

Losing 5 seats would have been balanced expectation given this terrain.

So a red wave would equate to losing 10 seats and blue wave equates to breaking even.

[OilemFirchen]

10. I've been contemplating this all day.

Unless there's a lot of ticket-splitting, it makes sense. The reverse, BTW (a blue wave in the Senate) would not naturally translate into a House wave.