What Do Early Voter Counts Mean? Who Knows?

[MineralMan]

The most we get from those counts is a breakdown by party of registration. In some cases the numbers also include the number of new voters. What can we tell from that information? Not a great deal, really.

Early voting is a relatively new phenomenon in many states. So, the increase in early turnout could well just be a growing acceptance and knowledge that voting early is possible. Breakdowns by party aren't all that convincing, either, since independents and those who decline to register with a party have grown in numbers a great deal.

New voters? Well, some are taking that as meaning that younger voters are turning out in larger numbers, but that's not all that clear, either. In some places, a new voter is just someone who has registered for the first time in a district or precinct. No age information may be available.

In no case, though, do we know how those early voters actually voted. Some registered Republicans may vote for Democrats, but we have no idea how many. Independents are impossible to guess about, really. Young people and new voters could be voting for anyone as well. We just don't know.

We could fall back on the idea that a larger turnout is good news for Democrats, but a large turnout could also mean that Trumpsters are energized and showing up to support right-wing candidates and idiots. We just don't know.

We will know, however. On Wednesday, we'll know. What we learn is going to change how polling is done, and how accurate are people's estimates of what things mean in terms of early voting. Polling and pundit predictions are all over the place in the run-up to the election. Nobody really knows until the polls close on Tuesday.

So, let's get out the Democratic vote. Help someone get to the polls tomorrow. Help convince people to get up off their butts and go vote. That's what we can do to help flip seats. Because we just don't know what any of the early voting really means.

GOTV!

[beachbum bob]

1. We can make reasonable assumptions.....you first start with the

Results, demographics of all the special elections held since trump been elected. That sets a factor. Then you look at the demographics and any other specific data points of early voting by precinct, by county, by district. The more the data is broken down into subsets, the better the analytics are. It's not rocket science in the field of statistical analysis or analytical statistical analysis to project response based on a pool of data. But yes, none of this matters for same day voting and we must maximize the GOTV effort at all levels Tuesday.

The upside to understand early voting is to see how pollsters are mistaken in their assumptions and therefore garbage in is garbage out. Understated performance of democratic voters is a huge and wonderful place to be right now. If democrats as a whole feel they need to stand in line for that extra hour, they will....

Right now the elephant in the room is Texas as all metrics of early vote has been blown out of the water across several demographics, all understanding of democratic votes is clearly understated.

[lunatica]

2. One sure thing about early voting

is that it shows that a sizable chunk of the population has already made up their mind about who to vote for.

I’ve always had serious doubts about anyone who is undecided on the day before the National voting day. Like, WTF! Where have they been?! And in this election?!

So maybe what early voting proves is that the more passionate voters come out earlier. And maybe it proves that voting against someone is a powerful and just way of voting, and as valid in every way as voting for someone.

That’s an argument I use all the time for those who think their vote doesn’t count. Your vote always counts, even when you don’t vote.