General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMy Senate map prediction -- looks like it comes down to TX or TN for the win.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)I'm shocked, to be honest, that we're even talking about the possibility of Dems winning the Senate - with a decent economy, Dems should be looking at losing 5-9 seats with the kind of map they're up against.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)That could be the final nail.
I think there is a real legitimate chance to win back the Senate given the recent polling and news of massive early voting.
genxlib
(5,535 posts)You need TX and TN to tie.
That still leaves the Senate deadlocked with Pence casting the tie-breaker.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Either one gives us 51.
YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)I think Texas is more likely than Tennessee but the number of new voters in both states is off the charts.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Wouldn't it be lovely!
rgbecker
(4,834 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)JCMach1
(27,572 posts)YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)You have to like the number of new vein both states
jcgoldie
(11,646 posts)Would love for Beto to put us over the top and if so they can have Tennessee.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Tanuki
(14,920 posts)Please don't count Phil Bredesen out before the day of November 6 is over! You may be surprised at his support in some groups that have been historically undersampled in the polling. It all comes down to which party can GOTV more effectively, so please don't be dismissive! Marsha Blackburn will vote against everything you stand for and everything you believe in, so think long and hard before you say she can "have" that senate seat.
We are all in this together.
Didn't mean to offend hard working democrats in Tennessee, only meant if someone offered a 51-49 democrat controlled senate right now we'd all take it!
Firestorm49
(4,037 posts)Its called gerrymandering and voter suppression. We wont win in a state where its a close call.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)The blue tsunami will overwhelm that crap.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Voter suppression attempts frequently trigger higher voting on the targeted population and that seems to be the case here with record mid term turnout.
The biggest obstacle to massive Democratic victory in mid terms is low Democratic turnout, we suppress ourselves.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)blogslut
(38,016 posts)Whoever gets the most votes wins, unless it's crazy close then a runoff might take place.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)However, I am not hopeful on Tennessee or Texas. Still, I could see Tennessee going Democratic if I had to pick the most likely of the two.
Sadly, I do not think Beto will carry Texas.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)The key metric in elections with 20% or higher than normal turnout is negatives by the candidates.
In both TN and TX Cruz and Blackburn both have extremely high negatives and this means that they have an effective ceiling and increased turnout will break against them.
Also undecideds generally break against incumbents.
Finally the latest polls are showing significant breaking towards D, polling after the latest shooting and the repeal of birthright citizenship. We may have reached the final straw for a critical 10% of the population.
I find it very interesting that Trump has returned to Montana 4 times and polls still show Tester ahead.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)vercetti2021
(10,156 posts)God please? I'd break down crying if he does.
peggysue2
(10,839 posts)it would be a political earthquake and a clear indication that the American public, Texans specifically, had voted for our Better Angels, the America we need to be.
D_Master81
(1,822 posts)I know the polling has been in his favor, but in conservative country theres Braun signs EVERYWHERE
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)I'm in blood red Elkhart County, and the Donnelly signs here outnumber Braun 10-1.