COOK POLITICAL ups it's estimate of Democratic wins on Tuesday...

[brooklynite]

Link to tweet

[RandySF]

1. So that means we start eating into our secondary targets.

I'm thinking Leslie Cockburn, Kristen Carlson, etc

[California_Republic]

16. Nunes going down?

[RandySF]

18. Nahh, that one is a red fortress.

[California_Republic]

19. I see they updated the outlook

From strong Republican to ‘likely’

[beachbum bob]

2. Cooks is very conservative in their forecast, but 40 does appear the under

and the upper limit could 60-70

Turnout, women and Hispanics

[YessirAtsaFact]

4. IF we get the Blue Wave turnout, we could take 60 more House seats and the Senate

I can see Beto getting a huge turnout of Hispanic and young voters in TX and beating Cruz.

I think that the pollsters are missing a lot of first time voters in this year's polling and most of them will be voting Democratic.

[malaise]

3. Get thee to the greatest page

Rec

[manor321]

5. Why does the 538 Senate outlook keep getting worse?

It is worse this week than last week, and it wasn't great last week.

[beachbum bob]

7. The dynamics. It's hard win for democrats. But still very possible.

The polling models not well suit for this election season

[MiniMe]

8. Only 1/3 of the Senate seats are up for re-election

And it is which seats are up that make it difficult for the dems. A few of the current dem seats are in red states like Heidi Heitkamp in ND and Joe Manchin in WV. In ND, Heitkamp won because of Native American votes, but the repukes are making it really hard for the Native Americans to vote.

[Takket]

9. i've noticed........

very sad........

two weeks ago it was 1 in 5

last week 1 in 6

this week 1 in 7

looks like we are only going to "break even" as we are going to flip Arizona blue but Heitkamp looks doomed in ND.

Nevada forecast to stay red is VERY disappointing to me. That is a purple state we should EASILY be picking up a senate seat in.

And despite all the enthusiasm around Beto, his odds of winning are only around 20% and 538 characterizes that seat as "likely GOP"... in other words, it really isn't close. But we'll hope for a turnout miracle on Tuesday.

[manor321]

10. Yes, I'm hoping for the best

But it is odd that the last two weeks have trended away from us while the House has gotten even a bit better.

[Qutzupalotl]

11. Fuck polls. GOTV.

https://heidifornorthdakota.com/

[brooklynite]

12. Today's Nevada poll: Rosen (D) 48% -- Heller (R) 45%

Remember that Democrats have Harry Reid's Party machinery and the Culinary Union

[DallasNE]

13. Because The Closer You Get

To election day the more solid the numbers get and the less opportunity to reverse the trend. It is all a math problem.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Thanks for posting

[elmac]

14. if theres one thing that the 16 election should have taught us

is that polls are pretty much worthless. GOTV and watch out for repug evil doing this last week before the vote.

[FromMissouri]

15. maybe

Of course it's rigged, but we've discovered that if we can get like 10% ahead of the R's, we can win, if we're backed up by poll watchers, lawyers, and adamant voters, sort of like the phony herd that descended on FL to get Bush in.
But of course negative news is opposition propaganda. Anything to suppress the vote. And positive predictions may function the same way.
Why we haven't repaired more of the easily hacked voting machines, I lay squarely at the feet of all elected officials. I spoke to my representative about this, and he said there was nothing he could do.
God I hope Pelosi was right, but why go on Colbert and say it?
GOTV

[IrishEyes]

17. I'm not resting or celebrating until the last polling place closes on Tuesday.