Cruz clings to a narrow 51 - 46 percent likely voter lead

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October, 29, 2018 - Cruz Ahead By Inches In Tight Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Abbott Ahead 14 Points In Governor's Race
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2583

Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz clings to a narrow 51 - 46 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to a 54 - 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in an October 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Today, O'Rourke leads 56 - 40 percent among independent voters and 96 - 2 percent among Democrats. Republicans back Cruz 96 - 3 percent.

Men back the Republican 56 - 39 percent, as women go Democratic 52 - 45 percent. White voters back Cruz 67 - 30 percent. O'Rourke leads 86 - 12 percent among black voters and 60 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters.

[Lucky Luciano]

1. Toxic (white) masculinity fucking things up yet again....

[Tiggeroshii]

2. This is winnable.

The buzz hes generated and the enthusiasm of democrats in this state makes this race winnable. It will be very close. Call, knock, donate.

[riversedge]

3. kick 🌊🌊🌊 #FlipItBlue #BlueWave2018 #VoteThemOUT

[Le Gaucher]

4. Fuck likely voter models .. Nothing is the same

We can win this

[progressoid]

5. with a MOE of 3.5 percent.

Gonna need a few more percent to make this happen.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. They can get it if we help make it happen

Knock call donate vote

[W_HAMILTON]

15. I'm not sure that's how the margin of error works.

I'm not sure if it varies between different pollsters, but I was under the impression that a margin of error of 3.5% means:

Cruz:

54.50% REPORTED, PLUS 3.5%
51.00% REPORTED
47.50% REPORTED, MINUS 3.5%


Beto:

49.50% REPORTED, PLUS 3.5%
46.00% REPORTED
42.50% REPORTED, MINUS 3.5%

So, technically Beto could be leading 49.5% to Cruz's 47.5%, but that would obviously be the best case scenario. Either way, it appears to be within the margin of error, at least from how I understood it to work.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. That is the correct method to evaluate margin of error

It is effectively double the stated number.

Beto may be technically within the margin for error, but I would hardly call 51-46 a "narrow" lead at this point. I wish all of our Democratic nominees enjoyed a narrow lead like that.

[DFW]

7. They must love Cruz out in the hinterlands

Dallas is BETO COUNTRY!!

[Garrett78]

8. Cruz being over 50% does not bode well, but anything can happen.

[FloridaBlues]

9. Would love to see a poll with Beto up by few points.

Beto will be on Chris Matthews hardball tonight @7 pm

[Stargleamer]

10. Not thru lack of effort on Beto's part

[Amishman]

14. This, he has run a near perfect campaign

This race should give us a good indication of if it will be possible to turn Texas blue any time soon.

We have every advantage; good candidate, huge fund raising edge, very favorable political climate, and a opponent out of favor with his own base

[UCmeNdc]

11. I'm going to donate more money to Beto O'Rourke today!

[dsc]

12. I hate Cruz with the power of a million suns

but that isn't a narrow lead. He is over 50, outside the MOE which is a good place to be with only one week left in the campaign. Interestingly the 538 Senate model has Manchin with a considerably better chance of winning his race than Cruz has of his but both are quite likely to win.

[DavidDvorkin]

16. That 508% increase in young voters gives me hope that the likely voter screens are way off.

[hurl]

17. It's the UNlikely voters Beto is chasing with a passion

We are pulling out all the stops down here.

[GulfCoast66]

18. This has always been an uphill battle and I would not bet on a win, but...

Likely voter is the key. If Beto can get out 6-7 percent who have not voted since 08, or have never voted he can definitely surprise.