Great News: Early Voting looks good for AZ and NV Senate. THE SENATE IS STILL IN PLAY

[grantcart]

ARIZONA - TWO IMPORTANT DATA SOURCES SHOW SINEMA LEADING

1) Today's Marist Poll

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-sinema-leads-mcsally-arizona-senate-race-n925876

WASHINGTON — Fueled by advantages among Latinos, independents and women, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 6-point lead over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s key Senate contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state.

Sinema, a Democratic congresswoman, gets support from 50 percent of likely voters, while McSally, a GOP congresswoman, gets 44 percent. A combined 6 percent are undecided or prefer someone else.

In September’s NBC/Marist poll, Sinema’s lead over McSally was 3 points in this head-to-head contest, 48 percent to 45 percent.

When the ballot expands to include the Green Party’s Angela Green, Sinema’s edge is cut to 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent — essentially unchanged from Sinema’s 2-point advantage in September, 45 percent to 43 percent.

Key points:

1) 44% have already voted with 51 Sinema to 47 McSally (About 30% of all voters have voted)

2) We have a 7% net advantage on party loyalty, meaning that more Republicans are voting for Sinema than vice versa and a 26 point advantage among independents (AZ registered voters are evenly split between Republicans, Democrats and Independents)

3) In a contest between two women we lead women by 13 points and men are even.

4) If we lose it will be because of a third party candidate

These points match up with what Sinema's campaign finds in their polling



2) These numbers are also confirmed by the official early voting numbers which show women are now outvoting men. If the men split and we have a substantial plurality of women voters then we will win.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10385458

WE CONTINUE TO LEAD IN NEVADA EARLY VOTING BY PARTY

Ralston has the best early voting analysis in any state and was virtually the only one correctly predicting Reid's last win. So far by party affiliation we are ahead by 12,000 votes cast.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

Day 10 in the books. Not a huge change after Monday, with Republicans doing slightly better in Clark but still a decisive loss. The Democrats in their southern stronghold usually are weakest in Days 10 and 11.

GOP gained in Washoe, still down by 800 votes. Some of the rurals are not in yet , so subtract a few hundred votes from the Dems’ statewide lead and say it is now 12,000 out of 411,000 cast. That’s just under a 3 percent lead.

Other numbers to remember:

—-28,000: That’s the Democratic firewall in Clark County. It will get to 35,000 unless something very strange happens, which is the minimum I think the Dems would want to have a chance in major statewide races, and it could get to 40,000, which will make the GOP nervous.

Remember, I have said Democratic statewide candidates want to win Clark by 10 percentage points to make up for elsewhere; right now, the Democratic ballot lead is 9.9 percentage points. (Dems are 3 points above reg and Repubs are 6 points above theirs, but the reg difference (137,000) accounts for the ballot lead.)

If, like AZ we pull more Republicans than they pull Democrats and we win the split on non party voters (80,000 so far) then we will win AZ by several points. 26% of the registered voters have already voted.

[beachbum bob]

1. hispanics and educated women are the key especially in Nevada

if both groups support and vote democratic, we win going away.

Its all about GOTV and getting the apathetic s ones off their asses

[bearsfootball516]

2. McSally only getting 88 percent of Republicans is REALLY ugly for them.

[grantcart]

3. And that is exactly the number gave me on their polling last week

Jeff Flake Republicans

[Tiggeroshii]

4. If we keep MO and eother hold onto ND and pick up TN

Then we get the Senate

[OliverQ]

5. I hope I'm wrong, but I think ND is going to be really tough to keep.

Heitkamp is just way down this close to election day.

[grantcart]

8. John Ralston (who was the only one predicted Reid winning NV) said it is still close

He went county by county and made the case that ND is the most difficult state to poll in because farmers and Native Americans are under reported.

Farmers are on fire because of soybeans which have lost half of their price because of the tariffs.

Efforts to disenfranchise NA will backfire.

ND is still competitive.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211339973

[grantcart]

6. TX is also unknown. The polls are correct for past models. This time an entirely different

electorate is going to vote in TX.

[Me.]

7. The Problems

Heitkamp. McCaskill & Donnelly. Any gains may, sorry to say, be offset.

[mahina]

9. Good information, great news!

[dalton99a]

10. Make it happen. GOTV!

How to Vote Early in the 2018 Midterm Elections