Republicans currently lead in early Florida voting, BUT...

[Downtown Hound]

Democrats have actually pulled ahead with in-person votes, 436,701 D to 430,663 R. This is a reversal from the earlier Republican lead. The current Republican lead comes from mail-in absentee ballots, which tend to come from older people and tend to be weighted towards Republicans. The total so far is:

1,151,593 R
1,092,547 D
465,216 I

The difference in absentee ballots is 720,930 R compared to 655,846 D. So the much hyped Republican lead is coming entirely from absentee ballots, a group that favors Republicans. Democrats are currently winning the in-person vote and look set to continue to expand that gap and continue to close the overall one as more people show up at the polls. They could very well even be ahead by the time election day rolls round.

Also remember that polls show Independents breaking for Dems this year and there are more Republicans who are going to vote Dem than there are Dems who will vote Rep. Also remember that Democrats enjoy a roughly 260,000 lead in voter registrations in the state compared to Republicans.

Bottom line is, don't believe the Republican spin. Things are actually looking pretty good. GET OUT THE VOTE, AND WE WIN!

https://www.orlandoweekly.com/Blogs/archives/2018/10/29/republicans-have-cast-close-to-60k-more-ballots-than-democrats-in-florida-election-so-far

[saidsimplesimon]

1. May I expand that to

include Media spin? I'm talking to you Steve Kornacki and others.

[asiliveandbreathe]

7. Kornacki reminds me of the rabbit being chased in a dog race...his air time depends on

the drama.....

[AJT]

2. College kids need to VOTE.

[Roland99]

11. Anecdotally from up north (I believe he's in KY somewhere)

Just one data point:
At our university, the early voting double lines--with students in them--extend waaaaay out across the Student Union--they're blocking foot traffic, frankly.
And they're still there at 2PM+ in the afternoon.
I've never seen anything remotely like it, for an off year. For that matter, not even in an election year.

[In It to Win It]

3. I assume the vote count is by affiliation, correct?

[Downtown Hound]

4. Correct. We have no idea how those people actually voted.

[Blue_true]

18. You get crossover both ways.

But my belief is that republican voting for Dem crossover will be higher this election than normal. There are republicans that I know who feel conned by Trump. They are the Chamber of Commerce types, not rich but hard working, also not highly ideological on issues like abortion, LGBTQ rights (some have LGBTQ kids who they love).

[Wounded Bear]

12. Yeah, it's not really a "vote count"...

It's a "who voted so far" count.

[GoCubsGo]

5. No guarantee all those registered republicans are actually voting republican, either.

How many of them are fed up, but haven't changed their registration to I or D? I wouldn't be surprised if a small, but significant number of them are.

[bearsfootball516]

6. Exactly. And independents are breaking Dem.

It's a very good sign with 8 days to go.

My parents are lifelong Republicans that live in North Carolina, but for the first time ever, they both early voted and voted straight Democratic, because they said their fed up with what's going on right now. So in the early vote total, it's going to appear Republican...until the votes are actually counted.

I'm sure the same thing is happening across the United States with hundreds of thousands of Republicans, who's early vote appears Republican because of their registration...but their votes are actually going blue.

[obamanut2012]

8. Some of those Repubs probably voted Dem

And vice versa. This literally means nothing for us here in FL until that Tuesday night around 11 pm.

[SolidBlueDem]

9. It is a little closer than that

Article is already outdated:

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

1,158,894 R
1,103,428 D
469,593 I

Spread is 55,466 +R

Get to the polls Florida Dems! It just is not that difficult to do.

[Downtown Hound]

10. Nice! Pretty much exactly what I predicted!

The Republicans got an early boost thanks to older, absentee ballots. But the Dems are just getting started. We will continue to close this gap and eventually win!

[Wounded Bear]

13. Aren't they due for a Pews to the Polls weekend coming up?

Or whatever they call it. That usually has a bit of an effect on the numbers.

[Blue_true]

19. I don't know whether the totals include that vote.

Eventhough it was compiled today at 1pm. If there is a day log, Dems are likely ahead just on their vote, not counting Indies swinging Dem.

[barbtries]

14. i'm still saying

(and hoping against hope) that some of those republicans are not going to vote republican. there must be a couple who are as horrified as we are about what's going on.

[onethatcares]

15. add 2 more Democratic Votes

done deal today at 1 p.m.

[Blue_true]

20. Great. nt

[Carl45]

16. many republicans are voting democrats

I live in Miami, my neighbors are registered as Republicans, but they voted democrats this weekend and my parents are registered as indep, but they voted democrats

[Blue_true]

17. GOTV, hammer through the finish.

The thing that should scare repugs is that progressives and moderate republicans that may swing Dem tend to vote late. If Indies continue to swing Dem, the Dems could already have a close to 100,000 vote lead, with our best to come.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. "there are more Republicans who are going to vote Dem than there are Dems who will vote Rep"

I'll be surprised if that turns out to be true nationwide. It is conventional wisdom, and mentioned several times in this thread alone, but I use several states as barometers for that type of thing and so far the indications are slightly the other way. For example, I keep waiting for Sisolak to take control of the Nevada governors race but he is suffering from too many Democrats defecting to his opponent Laxalt.

Our golden ticket is independent voters. I really wish our messaging had focused more on their priorities.

[BlueDog22]

22. Turnout War

The margins are close all across the south. This is going to be a nail biter for sure. We will not know until the votes are counted. I'm going to be nervous all the way through.

People think their going to win because their morally outraged. It's fine to be morally outraged. I encourage it. Elections however are won through shaking hands, knocking on doors, talking to people, registering voters, the amount of people you reach through marketing, fundraising, and these are subjects that a lot of Democrats don't talk about. These are things a lot of "active" Democrats don't do. They just spout their outrage on social media and vote on election day. Victory starts with making these advocates activists.