What's going on with the senate race in New Jersey?

[kimbutgar]

Just heard the senate race is a toss up. You’d think they’d be done with repuke after Christie wrecked the state. Or is this a bs psych op outlier poll. I live in California and just wonder.

[manor321]

1. 538 has a 90% chance of the Dem winning

Where did you hear otherwise?

[oberliner]

3. Cook moves Menendez race in New Jersey to tossup

The Cook Political Report has shifted Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) reelection race to a toss-up in New Jersey, a depressing development for Democrats, who are having to protect a seat in a deep-blue state when they need to focus on protecting members in states where President Trump is more popular.

Menendez is facing a tough challenge from Republican Bob Hugin, a former pharmaceutical company CEO, in what’s become a closer-than-expected race in a state that Trump lost by 14 points in 2016. New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/413287-cook-moves-menendez-race-in-new-jersey-to-tossup

[oberliner]

2. Hugin's campaign has outspent Menendez 3-1

with the majority of the funds going toward brutal TV ads.

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. Article at 538....toss up - they say NO

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-new-jersey-senate-race-really-a-toss-up-no/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

As of Friday afternoon, the FiveThirtyEight Senate model’s Lite forecast, which relies on just state and national polls, gives Menendez a 7 in 8 chance of winning re-election, or 87 percent.

To put this in perspective, we give Republicans a 5 in 6 chance (83 percent) of winning Mississippi’s special election — and no one is calling that a toss-up.

[pintobean]

5. Not enough voters are

giving Menendez the presumption of innocence?

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Nothing is happening

[kimbutgar]

7. Thank you

I just don’t get they would vote for a pharmaceutical executive with no political experience. All that pac ad money is really slimy. I wish we could outlaw these pacs.


I am getting fearful everyday that the best days of America are behind us and things will get worst. When I heard this on msnbc, I felt sick to my stomach. Hearing about all those awful lying ads And how they sway people is disgusting. You’d think the repuke party would be poison ini that state. I would never vote for a repuke ever. My late Dad used to say while I was growing up that repuke are dirty stinking lousy politicians who only care about rich white people. This was in the 60’s, his characterizations has not changed one iota.

[Tarc]

8. A little bit of shoot-self-in-foot, is what's going on

Menendez was indicted for taking bribes from a felon doctor, but the trial wound up as a hung jury. He will still win, but this is a lot closer than it ever should have been.

[Polybius]

9. Did he face a serious Democratic Primary challenge this year?

Can they re-try him in court?

[Jersey Devil]

13. US Attorney chose not to retry the case and it was dismissed

The jury was hung 10-2 for acquttal so that probably had a lot to do with the decision not to retry.

[Le Gaucher]

10. Chill the fuck out .. Menendez will win.

Saw some internal polling ..he is up by enough to be outside the margin of error.

[kimbutgar]

11. +1

I want the senate to be taken from the repukes and them be caughtt off guard when it occurs. A little fantasy, but what the heck!

[brooklynite]

12. Let's be honest: Menendez is a tainted candidate

A hung jury is not a ringing endorsement. If the State Party was smart, they’d “suggest@ that Menendez step down after his re-election, and find a more solid Democrat to replace him.

[Jersey Devil]

14. It is more complicated than that

The NJ Dems have for years been split between those in power in the north and those in power in the southern part of the state. They rarely agree on anything. Menendez is probably the most powerful Dem pol in the north and Norcross in the south. If one says it is daytime the other will say it is night.

[brooklynite]

15. I don't disagree...

...but in the context of "Democrats vs Republicans" we would be better off with a less challenged office-holder.

[Jersey Devil]

19. no doubt

I moved from NJ to NC about 2 years ago. If I still voted in NJ I would vote for Menendez but would have to hold my nose with my fingers while doing it. There are many other good pols who could have run, but he is so powerful that no one, imo, could have pushed him out.

[Polybius]

17. Was he primaried this year?

I didn't hear anything at all about a serious challenge.

[book_worm]

16. Every poll has Menendez up by 5-12 points, so if it is a toss-up so should Texas.

[pstokely]

18. quite a broad range for a toss up

nt

[DeminPennswoods]

20. Political handicappers have ranges of leads

that they use for "toss up", "lean" and "likely". I recall reading that leads of less than 10 pts are considered "toss up", 10-14 pts are "lean", 15+ is "likely".

[pstokely]

21. that's quite broad

just like "likely voter"

[DeminPennswoods]

22. It is

I was quite surprised when I read that to be "lean" a candidate had to be ahead by at least 10 pts. Generally a 10 pt lead indicates a blowout.