**Democratic Pickup Alert** NJ 3 Kim (Democrat) 48% MacArthur (Repugnant) 46%
West Long Branch, NJ – Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur continues to face a tough challenge from former national security adviser Andy Kim in the race for New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District.
There hasn’t been a lot of change in the state of the race since August according to the Monmouth
University Poll, with the Democrat holding a statistically insignificant lead among likely voters. The poll
finds that views of the incumbent have become more negative since the summer, as attacks on MacArthur
as being beholden to special interests seem to have had an impact. While the partisan gap in voter
enthusiasm has narrowed, Pres. Donald Trump remains more of a motivating force among Democrats
than among Republicans in this district.
Kim currently holds a statistically insignificant 48% to 46% edge over MacArthur among likely
voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model. Another 2% support a third party candidate
and 3% are undecided. The race stands at 50% for Kim and 44% for MacArthur using a model that
incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows
Kim with a 49% to 46% lead over MacArthur. These results are basically unchanged from Monmouth’s
August poll. At that time, Kim had 45% support and MacArthur had 44% support in the standard model.
Kim led 46% to 43% in the Democratic surge model and 47% to 44% the low turnout model. All leads in
the current likely voter models are within the poll’s margin of error.
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_102518.pdf/
