WA-03: The NRCC are rushing to Buetler's defense

[RandySF]

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NRCC IE is placing their first TV buy in the Portland, Ore. DMA. Start date is tomorrow, 10/26
7:46 AM - 25 Oct 2018

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Wow- A likely R district. I wonder what they're seeing.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/washington/3/

[gratuitous]

2. I hope that means she's in trouble

Herrera-Beutler's ads have been heavy on the fear-mongering (taxes and tolls and traffic, oh my!) and name-calling, notably short on her legislative accomplishments. For a majority-party representative, Herrera-Beutler doesn't have much of a record to run on. Carolyn Long has a new ad, "Enough" that's aired in the last 24 hours which I thought was pretty good.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The partisan polls show Long winning. The public polls tell a different story which is not unusual.

[violetpastille]

4. Jaime's worst smackdown on Carolyn

during a joint interview by the Columbian is that she wasn't born in the district but a short drive away in Oregon.

They haven't had a debate, and Jaime hasn't had town hall in at least three years.

Jaime has a strange fetish for killing sea lions. As though that were a problem for most people.
Jaime is also trying to drum up Anti-Oregonian sentiments, which is ironic since most of the residents here have Washington plates and Portland jobs and a University of Oregon window decal.
The area has changed a lot in three years and she hasn't seemed to notice.

Most of us aren't salmon fishermen or paper mill workers anymore.

Our ballots were signed, sealed and delivered yesterday.
(Mail in ballots, postage paid. It should be so easy all over the country.)

[grantcart]

5. This buy makes no sense to me

1 they seem far ahead

2 with mail in ballots in WA most of the votes will be cast before the ads show

[violetpastille]

6. I think it's going to be close.

If you went only by the Yard Sign Index, Jaime has a huge lead.

But if you went by the Vandalized Yard Sign Index Jaime is leading that too.

She's well hated.

[NewJeffCT]

7. They must have internal polling those shows it neck & neck

I can't imagine otherwise.

[grantcart]

8. yes but it must also show that they are seeing a lower than expected Rep turnout

They aren't going to switch any votes.

Most of the votes will have already been mailed in

But they see some Republicans sitting home and not voting.

In any case this is a very expensive ad buy per potential vote gained as most of the votes will have been mailed in before the ads air.

[MurrayDelph]

9. I can see Washington from my house

(well, not today as it's raining)

Their fetish for killing seals is because they think "those damned seals are eating MY fish!"

And I see a lot of Washington license plates (most on badly-driven cars) at our Costco, taking advantage of Oregon's lack of sales tax.

I dropped off our ballots at the county dropbox on Monday.

[violetpastille]

11. Yes that's us.

(In my own defense, I stick to the Vancouver Winco.)

And I stay well away from the Cascades Shopping Center which is a Vancouverite terror cell that parking lot fenderbender nightmares are made of. It's our SUVs and expectation of convenient parking that make us particularly dangerous.

(You can probably see my house from your house.)

[WA-03 Democrat]

10. Carolyn is a really good candidate.

Wish she could/would get some national exposure. Jamie is such a sock puppet. Voted for Carolyn yesterday!

GOTV!