538 showing Beto moving closer!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

Yesterday:
IPSOS - Adults - Beto 40%, Cruz 38%

IPSOS - LV - Beto 44%, Cruz 49%

October 23
GBA Strategies - LV - Beto 45%, Cruz 49%

I know not close enough- but better!! If we only had a couple more extra weeks!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/texas/

[brooklynite]

1. A 5% increase is about 200,000 votes

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. I know this is anecdotal and based on intuition

But, I have never seen such enthusiasm here. I moved down here to TX about 10 years ago. Typically, the only thing anyone MIGHT care about is a local sherrif's race. Now, you drive around and you see BETO signs everwhere, and this is where Republicans always win.

Beto is putting his vast resources into GOTV. Got texts to vote and texts for me to reply that I did vote.

[Stallion]

2. Need to Get Within Margin of "High Turnout" Model--and then Turnout

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. What is margin for high turnout model?

[leftynyc]

3. The problem with "likely" voters

is that Beto seems to attract many that aren't likely voters - people that have never voted, young people. Those likely voter polls are worthless in a race like this one.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Very true. Hoping that this is a " not this time " moment.

[leftynyc]

7. I honestly don't understand

trump humpers and have no desire to - they're lost causes. It's the "unlikely" that I'm trying to focus on - those who are horrified enough by the last 2 years that they are newly registered, are independents that may have voted for donnie but see that was a huge mistake, young people excited by a dynamic candidate.

[oberliner]

8. Hope he pulls out the win

[mucifer]

9. I bet he will have the votes to win. I also believe they won't be counted accurately

[Dem_4_Life]

10. Yay! Go Beto! ... What the polls are not reflecting are the new and young voters

Beto has been focusing on college tours and the colleges have had HUGE 1-2+ hour long lines!

[beachbum bob]

11. Unless hispanics/latinos turn out en mass for Beto, he has zero chance, its up

to demographic that has the MOST to LOSE, if they don't care, well what happens, happens.

[grantcart]

12. Slow but steady is the best sign

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. Yes. The farther away from the inexplicable kavenaugh bounce !