Good News 10/23 Latest TX Senate Poll Cruz 50 Beto 46 B grade pollster

[grantcart]

B rated GBA strategies with 538 not showing any bias.

However it is run by "endcitizensunited.org" so you wonder if there may be unintentional bias although all of their numbers seem to be reasonable (i.e. Beto trailing slightly with independents).

On the other hand they may be more open minded and have a better turn out model.

Bottom line is: Seems to be tightening. Will come down to big Democratic turnout. If we win TX then the Senate is still in play. We seem to be up in FL and NV. AZ MI IN tied. We still have a slight lead in MT. ND seems to have slipped away.

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ECUTX18m1-102318-1.pdf

Key Findings
• Texas is competitive in 2018. A Congressional contest among generic, unnamed
candidates results in a 47 – 49 percent deficit for the Democrat. Democrats only have a 2-
point disadvantage on partisan self-identification here as well, indicating the ability of a
strong Democrat to do well statewide this year.
• Trump’s standing not stellar. President Trump is not necessarily an asset for Ted Cruz in
Texas in 2018. Despite winning the state comfortably in 2016, Trump’s 46/47 percent
favorable/unfavorable standing and 50 percent approval rating are lukewarm. Trump’s
personal standing among Independent voters is net negative as well (43/46 percent).
• O’Rourke nipping at Cruz’ heels. The race for Senate is close here with Beto O’Rourke
at 46 percent and Ted Cruz at 50 percent. Libertarian Neal Dikeman wins 2 percent and 2
percent are undecided. O’Rourke is just 4 points down among Independent voters,
outperforming a generic Democrat among this critical bloc.

[beachbum bob]

1. Cruz hitting 50% not a good thing if ORourke wants to win...

time ticking away

[grantcart]

4. the spread between the two (if this poll is correct) has been going down by about half a point

per day.


Cruz's 50% has a ceiling on it. People that are for Cruz are already baked in and aren't changing.


What the poll shows is that by increasing Democrat turn out by about 8-10% of their number we would win 51/49

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/texas/


This is the second poll showing a 4 point spread. If the next couple confirm it or show it tighten further we will see panic in the Republican party. We will have a chance to win in Texas.

[brooklynite]

2. The challenge is that Texas has a huge voting block...

Each 1% you have to overcome means finding approximately 40,000 votes. Lot of minds to change.

[beachbum bob]

5. If hispanics/latinos get off their butts and vote, ORourke would win

easily...too much apathy for too many years.

[appalachiablue]

3. K & R

[Quixote1818]

6. Enough turnout could push Beto over the top. nt

[cannabis_flower]

7. The pdf at that link..

Last edited Tue Oct 30, 2018, 01:19 PM - Edit history (1)

Doesn't give any kind of breakdown by age race or gender. I emailed them to ask if there is somewhere I can access the metrics for this poll.

The last poll that CNN released was only likely voters and when you went to the breakdown by age there was an * next to the age groups 18-25 and 26-39. The * said that they didn't have a big enough sampling in that group to be statistically accurate for those groups. IOW, their poll was shit!


http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/16/rel1_tx.pdf

Total 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <45 45+
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat 45% N/A N/A 40% 44% N/A 41%
Ted Cruz, the Republican 52% N/A N/A 58% 52% N/A 56%
None of the above/Neither 1% N/A N/A * 2% N/A 1%
Other 0% N/A N/A 0% 0% N/A 0%
Don't know/Undecided/Refused 2% N/A N/A 2% 2% N/A 2%
Sampling Error (+/-) 4.5 7.4 7.6 5.0
Non- White White
coll. Coll. non- coll.
Total <$50K $50K+ grad grad. coll. grad.
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat 45% N/A 43% 43% 49% 31% 36%
Ted Cruz, the Republican 52% N/A 55% 54% 50% 68% 64%
None of the above/Neither 1% N/A 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Other 0% N/A 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Don't know/Undecided/Refused 2% N/A 1% 3% 1% 2% 0%
Sampling Error (+/-) 4.5 5.4 6.5 5.8 7.9 6.7
Indep Con
Demo- endnt Repub Lib- Mode- serva
Total crat Other lican eral rate tive
===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
Beto O'Rourke, the Democrat 45% N/A 41% 5% N/A 60% 14%
Ted Cruz, the Republican 52% N/A 54% 95% N/A 36% 83%
None of the above/Neither 1% N/A 2% 0% N/A 1% 1%
Other 0% N/A 0% 0% N/A 0% 0%
Don't know/Undecided/Refused 2% N/A 3% * N/A 3% 2%
Sampling Error (+/-) 4.5 7.6 7.3 8.0 6.6