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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsND-SEN: Heitkamp moves from Tossup to Lean Republican
If the theme of this cycles Senate races proves to be that geography is destiny then there will be no better example than the contest in North Dakota between Democratic U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and GOP U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer. It has become apparent that what matters most in this contest is party affiliation. While Heitkamp has done everything within her power to win a second term, and Cramer seems at odds with voters on some issues, he has been sitting on a lead ranging from the high single digits to the low teens. And despite Heitkamps best efforts, it doesnt appear that she can turn this around in the next 19 days. As such, the race moves to the Lean Republican column, and this rating change has implications for Democrats efforts to win the majority.
There is an assumption this race turned on Heitkamps decision to vote against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. In reality, it may have just been the final blow in a state that has moved further to the right since Heitkamp won the seat in 2012 by just 3,000 votes as Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried the state with 58 percent.
Cramer hasnt been a perfect candidate or run a flawless campaign. During the Kavanaugh hearings, he said some insensitive things about victims of sexual assault. He has been supportive of President Trumps trade policies even though the states soybean farmers are bearing the brunt of the fallout. By contrast, Heitkamp has outraised Cramer three to one, and her campaign has been relentlessly on message, reminding voters of her focus on North Dakotas needs and her moderate views. In the wake of her vote against Kavanaugh, she appeared in a television ad explaining her vote. None of it appears to matter to voters as long as Cramer has an (R) after his name.
According to the RealClearPolitics moving polling average, Cramer has an 8.7-point advantage over Heitkamp. There hadnt been a single public poll released over the summer, but three were conducted after Kavanaughs first confirmation hearing in early September. A survey conducted in mid-June gave Cramer a four-point lead. He maintained that four-point advantage in a Fox News poll taken September 8-11. An NBC/Valley News poll (September 17-27 of 650 likely voters) had Cramer ahead of Heitkamp, 51 percent to 41 percent. Finally, a more recent Fox News poll (September 29-October 2 of 683 likely voters) showed a wider Cramer advantage of 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent.
Democrats hold out some hope that Heitkamp can gain some traction and overtake Cramer, but its hard to see how that will happen.
Putting the race in Lean Republican has some larger implications for the Senate. With North Dakota no longer in play, Democrats path to the majority has gotten steeper. They now need a gain of three seats, assuming that they dont lose any more of their own. Theoretically, Democrats would need to win three of the four Republican-held seats in the Toss Up column, but it isnt a given that they wont suffer another loss as Democratic-held seats in Florida, Indiana and Missouri sit on a knifes edge.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/north-dakota-senate/north-dakota-senate-race-moves-lean-republican
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)That's not being pessimistic, it's realistic. People donating their money should start focusing their donations on Florida, Missouri, Arizona and Nevada.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)so there is hope.
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)it really wasn't repeatable. She has put in an honorable six years. And she's run about as good of a campaign as you can.
But ND is massively Republican, and so it was always going to be nigh impossible.
hughee99
(16,113 posts)MFM008
(19,818 posts)How about devestating house loses and possible surprises for republicans as opposed to the one senate seat we MAY lose?
Cha
(297,528 posts)a LYING sexual predatory Russian/saudi asset in the wh