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So Newsom has a seventeen to twenty three point lead in CA. I'm hoping for 25 (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2018 OP
He's been out there campaigning with them RandySF Oct 2018 #1
What do you think the final margin is ? DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2018 #2
I suppose that Newsom will win by around a 20 point margin. David__77 Oct 2018 #3
i will be disappointed in he doesn't run up the score. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2018 #4
He could. David__77 Oct 2018 #5
Cox should bring Trump into campaign for him. That will boost Newsom's margin. DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2018 #6

David__77

(23,510 posts)
5. He could.
Wed Oct 17, 2018, 12:54 PM
Oct 2018

I have a sense that ~62% is approaching the ceiling in a top two race. Under the old system, the margins would get larger with some people voting for minor party candidates. I tend to think that that vote would be more likely to go to the underdog under the new top two system.

Of course, it would be great for Newsom to get more than that. I do think that even with a 20 point margin, a number of Republican congressional (and hopefully senate and assembly) seats will be won by Democrats.

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