OR-GOV moves from Lean Democratic to Tossup
Oregon is a reliably blue state, at least when it comes to races for President, Governor and the U.S. Senate. It’s surprising then that in a year in which the political landscape favors Democrats, the party is sweating the Governor’s race as Democratic Gov. Kate Brown seeks to win a full term. The contest has now landed in the Toss Up column.
Part of Brown’s problem may well be that she inherited the job in 2015 when then-Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned in the wake of several controversies. Brown had to face voters in 2016 to fill the remainder of Kitzhaber’s term, but didn’t do as well as a Democrat might be expected to do in a presidential year, taking just over 50 percent of the vote. It seems that a bare majority of voters in 2016 gave her some time to prove herself, but aren’t happy with what they see nearly two years later.
Brown can and has been attacked on a host of issues from signing $13 billion in new taxes to ignoring the state’s troubled foster care system even after a report found that the system is in crisis. She hasn’t addressed more pervasive issues like the state’s failing schools or the pension crisis, and that she has broken her promise to make government more transparent.
The tax increases that impacted everything from health insurance premiums to gas and vehicle sales may prove to be her Achilles Heel. One ad from the Buehler campaign focuses on a statewide payroll tax increase to fund mass transit in Portland. Such a tax can easily breed resentment from voters who lives outside the Portland metropolitan area, who will see very little real benefit from such a tax. It also sends a message that Brown puts Portland’s needs above those in the rest of the state; big city favoritism chafes small town and rural voters in just about every state.
Democrats are finding it difficult to demonize Republican nominee Knute Buehler, a state representative and orthopedic surgeon, as a hard-nosed conservative. Buehler won a seat in the state legislature in 2014 after losing a bid for Secretary of State in 2012. His opponent was none other than Kate Brown, who won the contest, 51 percent to 43 percent. Buehler is a moderate, especially on social issues. Immigration is the only issue on which he has swerved to the right.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/oregon-governor/oregon-governor-blue-state-lands-toss
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my spirit!
