General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOn Election Day, Clinton had an 85% chance of winning...page 45 of FEAR..
from FEAR page 45....
"On election nite, it was remarkable to watch the needle on the live forecast dial on the New Your Times website, which started out giving Clinton an 85% chance of winning...."
And DU ladies and gentlemen, this is why I WILL NEVER BELIEVE ANOTHER POLL as long as I live...
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)plain and simple. Will GOPers try to do it again, yes. Good thing, there is no EC involved.
triron
(22,007 posts)Wasn't the polls or the exit polls or a poor campaign; the election was
stolen by traitors, pure and simple. But the denial will continue so long
as the belief in free and fair elections.
Polls don't account for voter suppression.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)this is why I WILL NEVER BELIEVE ANOTHER POLL as long as I live...
First off, a forecast probability is not a "poll". Secondly, and simply put, Clinton got more votes.
"85% chance of winning" does not mean "definitely will win", however, so maybe it would be a good idea to stay away from numbers absent an understanding of what they mean.
jodymarie aimee
(3,975 posts)or Bob Woodward...or 538?
p.s. winning means winning, taking into consideration that we have an EC...
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Do you understand what an "85% chance" means?
If someone pointed a gun at your head and said there was an 85% chance it was not loaded, would you say, "Okay, go ahead and pull the trigger?"
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)85% chance of winning means very likely to win, but not assured.
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)Going into the night, Nate Silver gave Hillary something like a 70 percent chance of winning. That's far from a sure thing. 30 percent for Trump isn't good, but it's a far cry from impossible, and was very doable if things fell the right way.
marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Generic Brad
(14,275 posts)Trump lost money for n the casino business
mtnsnake
(22,236 posts)Just like you, I will never put any credence into any poll ever again either. I swear to god every time the media comes out early in an election run with polls showing Democrats ahead, it's like they go out of their way to put the jinx on us.
Every now and then I wish there was no such thing as polls, or at least no publishing them. When the polls are going against us, it's just too stressful worrying that they will hold up until election day, and when the polls are going our way, I worry to death they're going to lose steam because of the media wanting to keep everything close for better ratings.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... socialized explanation of how they were so wrong in those red states that implemented pervasive voter suppression
JHan
(10,173 posts)Look at it this way: Think of the probability of a coin flip landing on tails 3 times ( or more) Probability factors in the unthinkable, "the odds".
andym
(5,444 posts)Which came to closest to predicting Trump-- many folks here were dissing 538 at the time. But polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were just plain wrong. In fact the whole Midwest was off. And Florida wasn't far behind. 538 did mention that if polling was off it would not be random, but consistent in one direction.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)marylandblue
(12,344 posts)Undecideds don't know themselves what they will do. Many people who say they will vote 3rd party end up switching to R or D. In states where Clinton was ahead by a few points, there were enough undecideds to swing the race if they broke strongly for Trump, which they did.
Power 2 the People
(2,437 posts)Republicans have been rigging the machines for years. No coincidence,no accident.
https://www.electiondefense.org/how-to-part-eleven/