MoveOn is pulling funding from Sen Manchin, so I'm going to send him a donation.

[pnwmom]

https://joemanchinwv.com

Senator Manchin managed to be elected as a Democrat in West Virginia, a state that supported Trump over Hillary, 68% to 24%.

Yes, he's disappointed me, but I'd rather have him as a Senator, voting with us 60% of the time, than the Republican who would vote with us NEVER. And Manchin's in a very close race against a very nasty Republican.

I'm disappointed with MoveON.

The Republicans are gloating about a poll that shows Morrisey within a point of Manchin. If Manchin loses, whatever small chance we have of taking the Senate disappears. This isn't about how Manchin votes on any particular issue. Winning a Senate majority would give us control of every single Senate committee, every judicial nomination, and decisions about every single proposed bill.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-morrisey-manchin-almost-tied

A new Republican poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tighter race between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Manchin led Morrisey 41 to 40 percent in the survey conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Morrisey’s campaign and obtained first by Roll Call.

Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 600 likely voters from Oct. 7-9, with 40 percent of interviews over cell phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[chillfactor]

1. sorry but i have no "love" for Manchin...

he is a traitor to Democrats....spend your money on someone more faithful to Democratic ideals then this turncoat.

[Fullduplexxx]

15. The short-sighted wing of the dem party strikes again

[bearsfootball516]

19. People in blue states have no idea what it takes to win as a Democrat in a red state.

[Joe941]

22. Thank you.

[YessirAtsaFact]

28. Do you want ideological purity more than a senate majority?

I’ll be glad to back guys like Manchin, to get control of the Senate.

If Schumer is the majority leader, there is no Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh.

Think about it.

[atreides1]

34. Even with a senate majority

Manchin would still have to vote against the Democrats in order to keep his seat!!!

[YessirAtsaFact]

35. Manchin would be a no vote, if it matti

Once Collins was a Yes, Kav was going to be confirmed.

Manchin’s vote was an easy political choice for the midterms, because it had no effect on the confirmation.

[KCDebbie]

77. Exactly! See Joe Lieberman or Blanche Lincoln or

Mary Landrieu! The Dems had to literally bribe them to vote FOR ACA!

And Lieberman wouldn't vote FOR ACA no matter what!

[SouthernIrish]

39. I agree totally

They also did the same thing to Bredesen in Tn. I unleashed my fury on them. That just gives Blackburn more of a chance to win. I live in Tn. I know how bad it is with her. A Democrat Lite is better than a Republican all day, any day.

[wellst0nev0ter]

74. We have a senate majority in New York

Yet the lack of ideological purity currently gives repukes control, go figure

[YessirAtsaFact]

75. You have a unique situation

I’ve seen conservative Democrats break ranks in the US Senate on individual issues but never with the caucus and majority leader.

[wellst0nev0ter]

76. ...

To be fair, Lieberman stopped being a democrat at this point.

[m-lekktor]

69. Yup. this. nt

[JI7]

2. i think Manchin is comfortably ahead there . i think some Democratic orgs pulled funding also

because they saw it as safe enough to put the funding elsewhere .

[Jim Lane]

3. When it comes to funding, Manchin isn't competing against Morrisey

He's competing against more progressive Democrats -- which is to say, almost all of them -- in other races.

If I had unlimited resources, I would probably hold my nose and max out to Manchin. But I don't have unlimited resources, and neither does MoveOn. Let's take your assumption that Manchin votes with us 60% of the time. I'd rather help elect a 100% or even 90% Democrat than a 60%er.

[pnwmom]

4. How many of those other Democrats are the ONLY Democrat in their state

that is a member of the US House or Senate?

[R B Garr]

8. +1, anyone who tries to argue with your point about

a Senate majority versus a beauty contest somewhere else is why the Russian’s targeted them to help Trump. It is truly mind-numbing that they still don’t get that.

[Jim Lane]

16. I don't know. To me, that's not important.

What prompted MoveOn's decision was Manchin's vote to confirm Kavanaugh. The impact of that vote was unaffected by the partisan composition of the rest of West Virginia's delegation to Congress.

If we knew for a fact that Richard Ojeda would flip his House district from red to blue, that wouldn't be a reason NOT to contribute to Manchin.

[NewJeffCT]

25. If Manchin loses by 1% or so

and the Senate ends up 50-50 and Pence votes to make McConnell majority leader again, MoveOn is going to look petty for pulling support for him.

Then, when House Dems and Speaker Pelosi send bills to the Senate to raise the minimum wage, restore net neutrality, protect Obamacare and pre-existing conditions, stop caging children, etc, McConnell will just ignore them and never let them even be discussed.

[Hekate]

5. Thank you for this, pnwmom

[grantcart]

6. Good for you

[violetpastille]

7. I love the way you think.

Thank you.

(Edited to say: Former Resident of West Virginia)

[murielm99]

9. I was a charter member of MoveOn.

I dropped my membership when they started endorsing candidates. I thought that betrayed their mission.

MoveOn has been disappointing me for a long time.

[Autumn]

41. I dropped Move On when I finally realized they were started to get us to move on from

the 2000 election. An election we never should have allowed ourselves to move on from.

[fishwax]

56. They weren't. They were started to get us to move on from the Clinton impeachment BS

[Autumn]

59. That was when I found them and joined but they seemed to ignore the 2000 SC

shit. Maybe there was just so much craziness and terror over the SC coup then it seemed that way to me. Anyway, I lost interest.

[scardycat]

10. For cryin out loud..

hold your nose and vote for the damn guy. We NEED the Senate!!

[samnsara]

42. i agree...i will donate to him with a short note....

...BAD BOY! BAD BOY! DONT EVER DO THAT AGAIN!

[More_Cowbell]

11. We need this seat

I subscribe to the plan to "Elect Democrats, then elect *better* Democrats."

We've seen during the Russian collusion investigation debacle that committee heads control everything: who the committee subpoenas, what information gets released, everything. We need Democratic heads of committees, and for that we need a Democratic majority.

I've been looking, a lot although I guess not exhaustively, and I haven't found where Manchin was the deciding vote to propel the Republican agenda. I agree that it's frustrating not to have a real Democrat. But a half Democrat is better than a Republican.

I will contribute, too.

[pnwmom]

13. +1. n/t

[RandiFan1290]

12. After supporting Kavanaugh

He should get help from his friends on the right.

[DFW]

14. Pulling financial support is usually done for one of two reasons

1.) Things are looking solid enough to use scarce financial resources elsewhere in more precarious races.

2.) Things look hopeless, and there is no use in throwing good money after bad.

While Manchin is the low end of our totem pole, if we manage to get 50 Senate seats elsewhere, Manchin as a Democrat is the one who gives us the majority leader's post, and the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which just happens to have the power to sit on Supreme Court nominations (think Merrick Garland), if they are so inclined.

Keeping that in mind, let's hope the reason was door number one. If the Senate had been in Democratic hands already, there would have never been a Kavanaugh nomination submitted for consideration.

[Mr. Big]

18. If we get the majority backil

I would rank Manchin dead last for assignments, leaving him with the fish files.

Then prepare another primary to truly get rid of him in 2024.

[bearsfootball516]

20. What happens when the much more progressive candidate wins the primary

And then loses the general to the Republican because it's West Virginia?

[Mr. Big]

21. You never know unless you try

People have been running right-wing vs right-wing for years in WV and other red states.. really giving people no options.

Let's try progressive vs a Republican and see who wins in WV. Maybe the Mountaineers are ready for a change. Beto is the real test.

[DFW]

27. That's Star Trek next generation in political time.

First, we need the majority NOW, and while the Republicans may seem to be working overtime to encourage the voters to give it to us, their electoral cheating is probably more than up to the task of taking back what they have lost, and well before the final vote tallies are announced.

[Mr. Big]

17. Sorry I dont donate to sellouts

[bottomofthehill]

23. This is easy

Clearly we are better with a Trump Republican who will vote against Democratic principles and priorities 100 percent of the time than we are with a turncoat like Manchin who will vote with the Democrats 60 percent of the time including the first vote which organizes the Senate and sets the rules.

If you live in West Virginia the choice is easy.....

Just do the right thing

[Autumn]

24. If the people in WV want him they will support and vote for him. He's been in office since 2010

[brooklynite]

26. If you haven't, don't...

I don't care what people think about Manchin at this point, but a contribution now is a waste of money. Campaigns have bought their commercial time, hired their staff and planned their flyer and sign printing. There is no value in giving them money two weeks out.

[lark]

29. As long as they are sending the money to Heitcamp, I'm ok with this.

With limited funds, support the real Democrat, Heitcamp, and not the 39% Dem 61% Repug Mancin.

[Gothmog]

30. I will also donate to Senator Manchin

[still_one]

31. Wow, a person who actually understands what it means to be the majority party in the Senate

and understands that West Virgina is not California

[Funtatlaguy]

32. I love MoveOn, but they need some Dems from Red States in their leadership.

I bet many of them have no idea how difficult it is to get a Dem elected statewide in someplace like West Virginia or Tennessee.

[melman]

33. "voting with us 60% of the time"

False

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/joe-manchin-iii/

[pnwmom]

48. That covers only the period from 2017 - 2018 and proves that Manchin is doing well.

He votes with Trump far less than would be predicted based on representing West Virginia.

Thanks for additional evidence proving my point.


Trump score 60.8%
How often Manchin votes in line with Trump's position


How often Manchin is expected to support Trump based on Trump's 2016 margin 93.2%

Difference between Manchin’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores

-32.4

[melman]

63. Nonsense

Utter nonsense. Try to spin those numbers all you want but they show what they show.

[pnwmom]

65. You're the one who posted the link with the numbers.

And 538's explanation of what they mean.

Thanks!

[Rob H.]

64. "Thanks for additional evidence proving my point."

Yeah, that’s exactly what he gave you.

...I'd rather have him as a Senator, voting with us 60% of the time.... (emphasis added)

Trump score 60.8%
How often Manchin votes in line with Trump's position (emphases added)

[pnwmom]

66. The point is that Manchin is FAR less likely to vote with Trump than would be predicted

for anyone representing West Virginia, the state that had the biggest margin for Trump in the whole country.

And Manchin's voting record is FAR more progressive than ANY member of the other party in ANY state.

And a very right wing member of the GOP is running against Manchin in November. It's idiotic not to prefer Manchin to someone who will probably only vote for the progressive position 3% or less of the time -- ESPECIALLY and MOST IMPORTANTLY because if we're to have any chance of getting control of the Senate, we can't lose ANY of the Democratic Senators we have, including Manchin.

[democratisphere]

36. IMO, money would be better spent on true blue Democrats.

[zipplewrath]

37. Be careful

There is a real chance, after the election, he could switch parties depending upon who is in control of the Senate.

[JHan]

54. really don't see him doing this:

1) terrible timing. If he were so inclined, he should have done it in 2015 or 2017.

2) Manchin has influence over the local state dem party (AFAIK) He wouldn't want to give that up..

3) The GOP has nothing to offer him.

[zipplewrath]

72. Could go either way

1) It's often when it's done. There was a huge shift in Southern Democrats to the GOP after Newt brought in a GOP majority.

2) Not sure his influence over West Virginia minority party is all that valuable as compared to...

3) The GOP has almost EVERYTHING to offer him, if they are in the Majority in the Senate. Chairmanships and the ability to get legislation moved through. He also might perceive an easier time holding on to office next time as a republican.

[JHan]

73. I don't really see them offering him any goodies.. thing is..

they already paint him as too liberal for the state. They'll remember that. Remember he didn't vote for the tax bill, or trump care and defends the ACA.

If he were to switch, he'd surely lose democratic support for good and I'm not seeing Republicans prepared to throw their weight behind him.

But we'll see, if he does switch I'll be truly surprised.

[Me.]

38. The Thing Is...He Doesn't Vote With Us 60% Of The Time

he votes with the Comrade 61% and we get what's left over

[pnwmom]

45. Progressive Punch says his overall lifetime score on progressive issues is 66%.

He ranks 48th among the Senators, according to Progressive Punch -- despite being in a very Republican state that chose Trump by 68% over Hillary's 26%.

Susan Collins, the most moderate of the GOP, had an overall lifetime score of 36%.

http://www.progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?house=senate

[Me.]

46. But We Are Talking The Last Couple Of Years

and averaging doesn't really apply

[pnwmom]

47. Who says? But even so, his rating is 48%, despite the fact that in 2016

Trump got 68% of the vote.

Meanwhile, in that time period, Susan Collins is the most "progressive" GOP, with a ranking of 12%.

Most of the GOP Senators have scores of 3 or below.

Which is better? 48% or 12%? Or 3%?

If Manchin loses, it will be to someone who votes with us 3% or less of the time.

[Me.]

49. It Depends On How He Keeps Voting

my hope is we won't need him

[pnwmom]

50. How could we not need him? He's the D who's running against an R in 3 weeks. n/t

[Me.]

52. Because We May Be Able To Take Other States

which put us over if we hold the line we have...Arizona & Nevada are looking good.

[pnwmom]

53. The line we have INCLUDES him, and it's not enough. And looking good is not enough.

We shouldn't be letting up on any of these close races.

[Me.]

55. We Will See What We Will See

[Separation]

60. +1000

The phrase, cutting ones nose off to spite the face, pops up in my mind.

I'm in Tn, and love the fact that Beto is getting lotsa coverage. But we have a couple knife fights here that I'm worried about as well. I can only hope the "Taylor Swift" effect/affect(?) kicks in here for the Democrats running. I havent heard of any meaningful polls since she threw her hat in with us, other than that garbage poll of Blacburn %14 ahead (it was an outlier and an older poll) But I'm not one to base my hope on an unknown affect, and have been donating my time and money towards Bredesen.

[pnwmom]

61. Good luck, Separation! And thank you for your efforts! n/t

[Celerity]

62. AZ and NV have unfortunately turned a bit for the worse post Kavanaugh

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.htmlĺ

Heller +7 , hopefully an outlier

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html#polls

McSally +6 , definitely an outlier I think, but the race is much tighter than it was

[lsewpershad]

40. Are you a bot?

Sure sounds like one.

[pnwmom]

68. No, are you? n/t

[George II]

43. This is something I've repeated here many times:

I would much rather have a Senator who votes with Democrats 75-80% of the time than a Senator who votes with the Democrats 0% of the time. Sure, there are things he's done and votes he's made that we're not happy with, but as long as he's the Democratic candidate running against a republican, I'll support him.

Unfortunately those who criticize him relentlessly don't consider the alternative.

[riversedge]

71. Totally agree.

[sellitman]

44. I cannot stand what you are saying

But unfortunately you are right.

He is an asshole but he is our asshole.

[RhodeIslandOne]

51. I think he'll be fine

Joe has managed to convince people he's a good ol' boy by saying he wouldn't vote for Hillary and might support Trump. I hope he sleeps well.

[ecstatic]

57. I get your point completely, but what vote is more important than a SCOTUS vote?

Even Doug Jones fell in line, and he's from super red Alabama! If he can't do the right thing on votes regarding the SCOTUS, especially when a lying pervert is the nominee, then what good is he? What use is he? That being said, of course, I hope he wins... but I don't want my donations to MoveOn going towards Manchin's campaign. Let him get money from the rightwing assholes he's bending over for.

[pnwmom]

67. The vote for SENATE LEADERSHIP. The vote to replace Mitch McConnell with a Democrat.

The vote that will control the leadership of every single Senate committee. The vote that will determine who controls every single Judicial nomination. The vote that will determine which bills ever make it out of every single committee.

How about that vote? Isn't it important enough for you?

As to Doug Jones, he isn't running for Senate this year. Joe Manchin is. That's the key difference between those two.

[WeekiWater]

58. Primaries are over and we need to hold his seat.

Go Joe!

[m-lekktor]

70. Kudos to MoveOn! nt