538's Senate projections

[dsc]

Still showing us likely to lose but it isn't as bad as it could be. Even Heitkamp has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

fixed link

[bearsfootball516]

1. Meanwhile, the House just crossed 80 percent for us.

A good sign.

[albacore]

2. Has 538 factored the voter suppression and gerrymandering in...?

We need more than 11% advantage... generic Dems vs. generic Repubs.. to just come out even.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/27/17144198/gerrymandering-brennan-center-report-midterms-democrats-house-2018

[bearsfootball516]

4. That report was largely debunked as garbage.

A 5.5-6 point margin is widely regarded as what is necessary for Democrats to take back the House.

[albacore]

5. You have a citation..?

In 2012 Democrats won 1.5 million more votes than Republicans in House races, but the GOP still got a 234-to-201 seat advantage. The GOP also maintained its control in 2016, despite winning fewer than half of all votes for the House.

[marylandblue]

8. 538 does take that into account

They look at the demographics and polling for each district and make an individual projection. In 2016, Republicans won a lot of suburban districts. Those are the ones they are expected to lose this time, mostly because Trump is losing college-educated women.

[albacore]

10. I'm looking forward to "a blizzard of subpoenas.." out the new House... nt

[hedda_foil]

11. The Brennan Center doesn't produce bogus voter suppression reports.

Cute your claim that it's been debunked.

[OilemFirchen]

3. Your link is to the House projections.

Here's the Senate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Senate back above 20%

It was down to 18% level a few days ago and dropping all the time

[brooklynite]

7. The issue with a Senate win...

...is that while each race is competitive, the odds that ALL the races Democrats need to be in will turn out correctly is low.

[marylandblue]

9. Pretty much where Trump was in 2016

He had to win every large state with a close margin, and he did.

[grantcart]

12. Jon Ralston had a detailed explanation on why Heitkamp is still competitive

He picked Reid to win when everyone had him losing

He want saying she would win, just that it's closer than people think and she knows rural ND better than anyone.

[Azathoth]

13. It's exactly as bad for us in the Senate as it is for Republicans in the House nt