Looking at the latest Beto/Cruz polling, I think the Bredesen swoon is due to

[redstateblues]

a Kavanaugh bump on the right. The previous Beto/Cruz polling in September had Beto even or down 3 now he's down by 9. How else can you explain that when it seemed like Beto had Big Mo on his side? I think we have underestimated the effect that the SCOTUS battle had on the deplorable base. I don't think it will hold as we get closer to the election. If not these Senatorial races may be tough.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

[nycbos]

1. Abbott is up by 20 in the governors race.

There aren't enough ticket splitters to give Beto a chance. Republicans were always going to come hone to Cruz.

If Beto loses by single digits I will be surprised.


Before people call me a troll I have worked on Democratic campaigns in six states on races ranging from city council to the presidency.

Donate your money elsewhere.

[Raven123]

6. My understanding is that the demographics just aren't there yet.

Even so, Dems got a good look at what kind of candidate energizes blue voters.

[uponit7771]

9. Demographics in population are there but demographics in likely voters are not. Hopefully this is a

... re-configuring polling year.

[JCMach1]

14. No, demographics are fine... TX should be Purple..., it's the 30% voter turnout

worst in the whole country

#50

Dead LAST

[Turin_C3PO]

18. Is that for Presidential elections?

If so, that’s terrible. Reasons for this? Low minority turnout? Low white turnout? Both?

[BannonsLiver]

13. Oh.

[grantcart]

2. Kick

[andym]

3. Hopefully the Kavanaugh bump for conservatives fades by election day

Abortion remains a very powerful motivation for social conservatives. Without it, the red states would be purple or even blue.

[WeekiWater]

4. Since Cruz won by sixteen last time around.

Can't his run to three or so be considered big mo and his position down nine is a more settled place? Texas is moving and it's a good thing. The state has now been saturated with Beto. I think stabilizing forces are at play.

[redstateblues]

5. There has been so much positive about Beto's run that it's hard

not to get one's hopes up.

[jpljr77]

7. It's not the deplorable base that cares about the SCOTUS, it's just regular ole Republicans.

The deplorables know only what they're told about the SCOTUS. But Republicans know. It's why Trump won in 2016. And it's why R prospects are rising right now. Fortunately, it might be too long to hold on to that kind of anger and it might lead to a deficit of the only thing that works for Republicans, in the words of Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-Hissyfit), "We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

[UTUSN]

8. Beto just reported $38 Million for this quarter, not known for Carnival CRUZ. Incredible

Incredible that he has worked so hard, raised more than the Carnival, and nothing matters.

[LAS14]

10. It might not be rallying the base so much...

... as raising the fear level of "innocent men being convicted" on the part of independents. I think that is an issue that blurs the lines, and runs pretty deep. It was at the heart of Collins speech.

[uponit7771]

11. Hmm, this is a likely voter poll in Tx. Hopefully Beto is pulling out population demographics to win

.

[magicarpet]

12. Massive waves of Fascist dark money flooding in to the nail biter...

... elections to stop the blue wave and save Rethug loss of face. They do not want under any circumstances to see Beto crush Cruz,.. that would be real bad optics. Big bucks allocated for TV ads could pull Cruz over the winning line.

Beto is the next Oval office threat for the Fascists to soon be coming down the road. Expect Beto to be trashed to shut his chances of getting near the White House down. This guy is dangerously charismatic and gives a good public speech. The Rethug radar screen must have Beto marked as a real up coming political threat.

[JCMach1]

15. Relax peeps, it was and is always about turning out Dems and Indy's in TX you can pretty much ignore

any poll that doesn't have Cruz up by 15.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Simply too many conservatives in Texas and Tennessee

That's the only category I look at, the liberal/conservative split. It provides far more clarity than polling. I never get fooled by polling that doesn't match the ideology of the state.

Those numbers of liberals and conservatives are like immovable stacks in a federal race.

The disappointing race is Arizona because that one is winnable but now the polling and odds have shifted against us. Apparently Sinema has many comments she made in past years that have been dug up by opposition research and now are being used effectively against her.

[Turin_C3PO]

17. But look at WV.

They are ideologically very conservative yet voted Manchin in over the Republican. Also there has, historically, been some very liberal states that have elected Republicans over Democrats. So sometimes the liberal/conservative federal divide can be turned upside down at the state level.

[redstateblues]

22. For sure. Look at Maryland.Blue State with a R Gov

who is ahead by big double digits. Chapelle couldn't even help.

[mvd]

23. I lived in MD before and just don't understand Hogan's popularity

I know he did away with some taxes that hurt the middle class. But I think surely he's been on the conservative side? I always thought MD voters were smarter than to think about a few taxes.

And I think Beto has a decent chance. This poll could be an outlier. We'll see how things look closer in.

[Blueman13]

21. That Arizona news is dissapointing

I have wrestled between Nevada/Arizona being our best pickup up opportunity. We may very well not pickup a single seat.

[Baltimike]

19. Because they are planning on stealing it, and skewed polls help. nt

[Celerity]

20. They are stealing the GA governor race right out in the open, before

the eyes of the nation. It is insane to have one of the candidates also overseeing the election. If that isn't literally the archetypal example of a conflict of interest, I do not, and never will know the definition of a COI.

[Baltimike]

24. Yep...but make sure you "watch your tone"

which reminds me of the early 2000's when the word "liar" was somehow off limits.