Early voting update from the DLCC

[RandySF]

Email from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (One of the best organizations out there).

New early voting reports are in from five of the nation's most critical battleground states, and the numbers are nowhere close to what anyone expected.

EARLY BALLOTS CAST

COLORADO:
D 49%
R 20%

IOWA:
D 53%
R 33%

MAINE:
D 48%
R 30%

NORTH CAROLINA:
D 44%
R 26%

WYOMING
D 53%
R 34%

[Scurrilous]

1. K&R

[Cracklin Charlie]

2. And, when you say not close to expected?

Would you mind telling us what was expected, cause these numbers kick ten kinds of ass!

I like it!

[RandySF]

3. That was in the email. No explanation given.

[3Hotdogs]

4. I don't get it. Are ballots being counted before election day?

Or are they checking return addresses on mail-ins against county party registrations?

[RandySF]

6. Party affiliation on a voter registration is public record

[Demovictory9]

5. k&r

[triron]

7. Looks good to me.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. how many will be "lost"?

How many will be disqualified for wrinkles, smudged postmark, improper punctuation?

Repugnants lie, steal, and cheat. They worship the orange idol of lying, stealing, cheating.

[LBM20]

15. Please, can we have some good news without endless Debbie Downerism from some people.

The dooming and glooming is really getting old. Just go vote and let's win this election.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

19. Please, can we get real?

Read my post above, again. It is not "dooming and glooming". It is a reminder that we are not in a fair fight. Don't let pre-election polls change GOTV efforts.

The reality is that the GOP will lie, steal, and cheat to gain or maintain power. If voters fail to recognize this, GOP will consolidate power gains. If voters do not overwhelm the cheats that are in place, GOP will consolidate power gains. Good news in pre-election polling is helpful only if it is used to motivate more voters.

Doom and gloom will be the result if we do not get enough people to go vote D.

[Blue_true]

20. The DLCC know the number because of democratic poll monitors that must be present when votes are

after each day.

Please stop to "vote will be stolen, why bother" BS.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

22. GOTV

Please stop using quotes without quoting. Nowhere have I said "vote will be stolen, why bother".

Evidence is plentiful that GOP distorts the vote in multiple ways. It is essential that we do not assume that good poll numbers indicate a win is imminent. Regardless of polls -- good or bad -- we need to keep our eyes on the prize.

Good polls can be used to motivate or they can be just as bad as unfavorable polls at demotivating a get out the vote effort. Don't let up; the bigger the wave, the more likely the defeat of suppression, gerrymandering, purges, and propaganda.

[orleans]

9. i keep trying to recommend this post

and it's not taking.

so i'm kicking it!

good news! finally.

[Stonepounder]

10. I don't understand the numbers.

For example:

North Carolina:
D 44%
R 26%
? 30% <- who dey?

Also, I don't support releasing this kind of info. How many folks who otherwise would have voted will say, ahhh, the election is already over and then won't bother to vote?

[RandySF]

11. It's public information and being reported by the parties and media

And the 30% in question are likely no party affiliation.

[PatrickforO]

12. Interesting.

They will be mailing out the ballots in Colorado on the 15th, and we can either mail them in, drop them off in secured ballot drop off locations, or vote in person. Lots of initiatives on the ballot, too - too many, but some that will draw people out. Lots of K-12 stuff. Some transportation infrastructure. A couple of really ill-advised measures both for and against oil and gas.

And, we have a lot of really good, high quality candidates at the state and local levels. I'm thinking Colorado will go blue even more in the House, which already has a Dem majority, and in the Senate, which is now controlled by Republicans. Polis will win for sure against the Legacy-Klansman Stapleton. Weiser should win, and he will be very good as AG. Dave Young is in a tougher race for Treasurer, and he's talking about public banking, which is great. Jena Griswald is running for SoS, and she was a voter rights attorney for the Obamas. She has momentum but most of the attention and money is on the Crow-Coffman contest. Crow should unseat Coffman, but it has been a tough race.

Well...enough of that. I'm working for the campaign of a candidate in my state House district because it is really time to focus on getting Democrats into office from the grassroots up.

As to WY? Blue? No. They will remain a red state with something like half a million people and they will STILL have two US Senators.

[Polybius]

13. For what it's worth, Republicans hate early voting

While the numbers are encouraging, we will always have an early voting advantage.

[LBM20]

16. Can be an enthusiasm indicator. But yes, we need to GOTV like HELL.

[littlemissmartypants]

14. I am pretty sure early voting does not start in NC until the 17th.

Where are these numbers coming from? This kind of stuff is what, in subsequent voting event poll analysis, made voters complacent and they reportedly stayed home during our last go round and we know how that worked out. The logic being, that if the margins are so solidly wide, voters think "we've got this" and don't show up.

As far as I am concerned, these are just numbers, like a rabbit pulled out of a hat, meaningless without a reference and dangerous for turn out. One set of numbers is usually considered useless, from a statistician’s view anyway, without replication. These numbers may be good for "the feels" but not much else, imo.

Reminds me of a friend I had that used to say "don't count your hatches before they chicken" he passed away from the stroke that gave him a speech problem, which made his lingo so interesting, but nevertheless just as meaningful.

I'm saving my feels for the final hatches tally. It's the only one that really matters to me. Anything can happen between now and then. Thanks for the post, RandySF.

Love, peace and shelter,
lmsp ♡

[LBM20]

17. Good to vote early, BUT we gotta GOTV GOTV GOTV like hell and have big election day turnout too.

[littlemissmartypants]

18. Absolutely!!!! eom

[jpljr77]

21. Is this early voting totals from primaries? Early voting for the general election hasn't begun.

And how would they get these numbers anyway? Exit polls? You don't declare a party during a general election.

Please provide a link to these numbers.

In short, I think these are BS numbers or they have been misrepresented. Sorry.