**Blue Tsunami Alert** A Rated CNN Generic Ballot Democrats 54% Trumplicans 41%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/10/09/rel9b.-.2018.midterms.pdf

Ha. The Trumplicans thought putting an intemperate dipsomaniac who has been credibly accused of sexual assault on the Supreme Court would inure to their benefit. They thought wrong.

[unblock]

1. look at our jump in enthusiasm!

contrary to the republican/media b.s. that the kavanaugh mess was a "gift" for them, democrats "extremely enthusiastic" about november surged from 33% last month to 40%.

meanwhile, republicans "extremely enthusiastic" about november drifted from 30% down a hair to 29%.



gotv!!!

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Blunami! Blunami!

I don't think that saying this will encourage Democratic voters to stay home, as I've seen argued elsewhere on DU. I think it might encourage some to vote who would otherwise feel that their vote wouldn't matter.

[octoberlib]

3. K&R!

[OnDoutside]

4. Some big pluses...

Q9. Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with
each of the following issues and problems? (CONTINUED)

The investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election

Republicans in Congress
Democrats in Congress
No difference (vol.)
No opinion R D
October 04-07, 2018 34% 50% 5% 11%
March 22-25, 2018 35% 51% 6% 8%

Health care R D
October 04-07, 2018 36% 54% 3% 6%
March 22-25, 2018 36% 56% 4% 5%

Sexual misconduct R D
October 04-07, 2018 30% 51% 8% 11%

[Awsi Dooger]

5. 538 House model jumped nearly 2.5% today

From 73.8% likelihood to 76.3%

First thing I check every day. Imperative to keep that closer to 80% than 70%. If it's 70% or lower then we are basically dependent on winning our share of the razor tight races. At 80% or nearby there's enough margin for error that it should happen.

[Charlotte Little]

6. Assume we'll lose

...and get out the vote!

Polls mean nothing. Be angry. Be desperate. Crawl over broken glass for 100 miles to vote Blue if necessary.

Yes, I know. All of you will do this already.

Now, pick one person you know who isn't as enthusiastic or interested in voting and between now and 11/6, scare the hell out of them by using the strongest tool you've got...

...facts.

They should be ready to crawl over broken glass for 100 miles to vote Blue by the time you're done with them.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. 538 now 77.9%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Great move upward today of 4%. That is huge. We can't be dense enough to believe anything above 55 or 60% makes it a certainty.

[Scurrilous]

8. K&R