TS Michael to hit Florida Panhandle as Hurricane on Wednesday

[brooklynite]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is
currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward
motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

[malaise]

1. That's not a TS hitting Florida

It's at least Cat1 Michael with lots of rain

[Lochloosa]

2. My hometown, Tallahassee, will not fare well on that track.

Tallahassee is full of live oaks. The don't like high winds and rain.

[malaise]

3. Stay safe

[Lochloosa]

4. Always.

[Baclava]

5. In the gulf on Wed and in Atlanta on Thurs? Must gonna really be moving fast n/t

[Scurrilous]

6. ...

[trueblue2007]

7. Will the hurricane hit West Palm Beach ???? ?? ???? ?