Naysayers saying the Senate is lost - you are WRONG - many tossups.

[Funtatlaguy]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

[PearliePoo2]

1. Cook now has Ted Cruz (Creep-TX) as a "Toss Up"!

Wow, THAT'S GOOD NEWS!

Go Beto!

How cool is Beto? This cool!

After his debate with Ted Cruz, U.S. Senate Candidate Beto O’Rourke Air-Drumming to 'The Who'

[dalton99a]

4. Grassroots support for Beto is quite a phenomenon

I hope he kicks Rafael's ass

[LBM20]

2. I said it was that it was UNLIKELY simply given the map and the math. And it ALWAYS was unlikely.

I said this in reaction to people glooming over how it is "Slipping Away." It was NEVER ours in this cycle, and it was ALWAYS going to be VERY hard. BUT, we can definitely take the HOUSE and STATE and LOCAL races.

[Me.]

3. Arizona & Nevada

Both candidates there are slightly leading, mind you I said slightly

[Squinch]

5. May you be right! I dare not hope. You do it for me!

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Except many of those so-called toss up races are not toss ups

Check the trading prices (betting odds) of many of them on Predictit:

* Ted Cruz is now trading at 78 cents
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/5313/Will-Ted-Cruz-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Texas-in-2018#data

* Blackburn in Tennessee is trading at 72 cents
https://www.predictit.org/Market/3772/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-race-in-Tennessee-in-2018

* Heitkamp in North Dakota is all the way down to 20 cents
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7266/Will-Heidi-Heitkamp-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-North-Dakota-in-2018#data

* McCaskill is an underdog trading at 43 cents
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7270/Will-Claire-McCaskill-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Missouri-in-2018#data

We are favored in some others, but barely like Nevada (60 cents) and Florida (53 cents) and Arizona (56 cents) and Montana (64 cents) and Indiana (51 cents).

Sure, senate control is possible but it is a severe longshot, far beyond what has been portrayed in the media. It was always unlikely given the terrain and then the polling within the past 10 days or so has been miserable. That's why the Tennessee race and Texas race and North Dakota race shot away from us, in terms of the betting odds, and the 538 number dropped all the way down to 22% after opening at 34.3% a month ago.

I don't think many here were paying attention to the awful polling trend, while otherwise being obsessed with the Kavanaugh situation. Independents shifted back toward the GOP in small percentage, which changed polling all over the place including Trump's approval rating now at 42.3% on 538 after being 39.9% just three weeks ago on September 13.

I detected the polling shift quickly and played heavily into the Predictit markets, not only senate but races like Georgia governor, which I got at 58 cents and is now up to 67 cents. That is an entirely different ball game from a betting perspective, a 58 instead of 67.

I don't want to be wagering on the other side so often. But the recent tendency is not something I am going to ignore, that Republicans are shy to respond to polling and some of them don't want to admit they support Trump, therefore the summer and early fall polling tends to portray certain races as more competitive than they actually are, especially in states with heavy (42+%) number of self-identified conservatives.

If we think some of those senate races are toss-ups then our House situation -- now 73.7% on 538 -- is apparently a toss up also.