I think the hype about Kavanaugh / Ford helping the GOP enthusiasm is noise

[Quixote1818]

Two days ago 538 showed very little if any movement to the GOP in house races and a slight shift in the Senate race but mostly because of some polling in ND where we were going to lose anyways. Now that Kavanaugh has been confirmed, if anything there will probably be a shift in our favor.

Snip:

From a 35,000-foot view, the story in the generic ballot numbers is largely one of stability.1 If you want to be more precise, however, the trend in the generic ballot now depends on what point in time you’re comparing against. The GOP’s current deficit on the generic ballot, 8.0 percentage points, is a bit worse than it was before Kavanaugh was nominated, when it was 7.4 percentage points. It’s slightly better than it was when Ford’s name was disclosed, however, when it was 9.1 percentage points, or since just before last week’s hearings, when it was 8.6 percentage points.

Link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

[gordianot]

1. This is manipulation.

Most Trumpers are as irrational as Trump. At this point I doubt anyone knows for sure what the impact will be.

[Midnight Writer]

2. I keep thinking back to Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Daily protests, public outrage, media attacks,

a wildly successful recall petition. It seemed like everybody and their dog hated Scott Walker. And then came Voting Day.

And Scott Walker won. Handily. Not only beat the recall election, but won re-election, by an impressive margin. Not only that, his totally corrupt, reactionary Republican machine won in the House and the Senate.

All the liberal outrage in the world is just a fart in the wind unless WE TURN OUT, and we get others to turn out and join our side.

[OrlandoDem2]

3. Truth. Polls don't vote. People vote!

[Squinch]

4. You are absolutely right. This, though, is their talent. They are very very very good at PR.

We are finally wising up to that, but our next step is to get ourselves some PR champions ourselves to spread our message.

The upside to this is it might keep even more trump voters at home for the midterms.

[Danascot]

5. I'd be interested to know how their fundraising is going

not counting GOP mega-donors. That should be a good indicator of GOP enthusiasm.