Trump's political base is weaker than it seems, our new study finds - Washington Post

[Quixote1818]

Snip:

Here’s how we did our research:

During the first two weeks of July, we fielded a nationally representative survey of 1,379 likely voters. Conducted online and on the phone by the National Opinion Research Center, we included only respondents who reported a high likelihood of voting in this year’s midterms. The survey was funded by Cornell’s Center for the Study of Inequality.

In our survey, Trump’s approval rating was 85 percent among Republicans. That’s consistent with other polls. On the surface, the president’s support among his fellow Republicans is overwhelming.

But the key to our analysis was to divide Republicans into three groups: those who say they identify strongly with the Republican Party; those who identify as Republicans but not strongly; and those who call themselves independents but say they lean toward the Republican Party. These distinctions, often obscured in media coverage, are important because research shows that the strength of a voter’s partisan identity has an important effect on their political attitudes.

Among strong Republicans, Trump’s overall approval rating is 93 percent, with 78 percent “strongly” approving of the president. The problem for Trump, however, is that these voters make up less than half of the Republican electorate — and 18 percent of likely voters.

Among the larger number of Republicans who identify less strongly with their party, Trump is much less popular. For example, Trump’s overall approval rating among not-so-strong Republicans is 72 percent, with 38 percent saying they strongly approve. Thirty-four percent say they only “somewhat” approve of Trump. Those numbers are similar among independent-leaning Republicans.

More: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/07/trumps-base-is-weaker-than-it-seems-our-new-study-finds/?utm_term=.2ef485a5c305



Adding up Trump's Strongly Approve in this chart (Republicans to Dems) = 184
Adding up Trump's Strongly Disapprove in this chart (Republicans to Dems) = 296

[dalton99a]

1. "Being associated with Trump might hurt Republican candidates this fall."

Hang him around their necks - every damn one of them

[struggle4progress]

2. The GOP is on the move as strong Rs become not-very-strong Rs and then R-leaning indies!

Where will it end?

[dchill]

3. Sorry, GOPers, but even if you only "somewhat" approve...

of Trump, you are sand in the eye of everything you USED TO BE expected to represent.

[BlueMTexpat]

4. So why do they keep

getting more air time?

[Cosmocat]

7. T H I S

nm

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Not relevant

Nobody is going to be able to take the nomination from him, and once it is Trump versus a Democrat all of those lean and not-so-strongs are going to vote for Trump anyway, just like they came home in 2016.

The independent chart is the only one that matters. The dark 36 is great but that blue "Somewhat disapprove" is disturbingly small, especially since it is dwarfed by the light reddish "Somewhat approve." We would be far better off in 2018 and toward 2020 if those two were reversed in length.

[Cosmocat]

8. Correct

nm

[JI7]

6. they are mostly about hating liberals, minorities, women etc . and trump feeds that to them