Realistically, is the Senate in play?

[In It to Win It]

[dlk]

1. It is Now. Women (and the Men Who Love and Respect Them) are Fired Up!

[Codeine]

2. Barring miraculous Dem turnout

almost certainly not. But I’ve been told the next cycle looks better.

[In It to Win It]

8. That is true

The 2020 cycle is a much better map for Dems. In the 2018 cycle, Democrats are defending a lot of territory whereas it's Republican defending about 20 seats in 2020. Assuming that Dems at least maintain the current amount of seats we now have, 2020 is our path to a 60 seat majority.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Unlikely but you never know.

It’s all about massive turnout, which always favors Democrats.

[Alhena]

4. Honestly, I don't think anyone knows how this Kav stuff will play out among voters

all we can do is work hard, and then vote knowing we gave it our all. Predictit says we only have a 21% chance of taking the Senate, but I think we have more chance than that. And even if that's correct, those are hardly astronomical odds.

[Downtown Hound]

5. It's a long shot but not impossible

But I do think we'll take the House. If I had to wager though, my bet would be that the Repukes will hold on to the Senate by a few votes.

In 2020 though, I think the Senate is not only in play but quite likely. By then, the pubic will know a lot more about Trump, his business dealings and his Russian involvement. Let's just say that me thinks the GOP will have a lot of 'splainin' to do.

[rurallib]

6. if we had paper ballots, I would say yes

[alwaysinasnit]

7. +1000

And maybe some poll observers.

[fierywoman]

23. I agree with both of you -- it terrifies and utterly frustrates me.

[RockRaven]

9. In play? Yes. Likely? No.

Looks like a lost seat from Heitkamp in ND.

And that means even if Dems hold the rest of the way across the board -- a big if -- they need wins in AZ and NV just to get to 50 (which is still a minority thanks to Pence tiebreaker). So they'd still need another pick-up in TN or TX to get a majority.

Both holding all incumbent seats aside from Heitkamp, and picking-up 3 of those 4, seem unlikely to me. Certainly possible though. Certainly worth fighting for.

[unblock]

10. Predictit says we have a 21% chance. 538 says we have a 22% chance.

Most likely outcome is we pick up a seat or two but republicans still have control, with pence as tie-breaker if needed.

But over 20% chance is still a fair ways from no chance at all, so there's reason to hope and to work for it.

Frankly it's a testament to how horrible and unpopular republicans are that we even have a shot at it given how terrible the map is for us this cycle. If republicans were at all tolerable as a party they would be picking up seats easily in November.

[aeromanKC]

11. So you're telling me there's a chance.

https://scottrasmussen.com/election-summary/2018-senatorial-races/

[Drahthaardogs]

12. Anything is possible

But a 50-50 split will be a win in my book.

Especially the way the Orange Menace is attacking Murkowski. She'll never caucus with us, bit he's not earning any brownie points with Lisa.

[helpisontheway]

13. No..and I'm beginning to wonder about the House too..

The Republicans are motivated now that they have their accused rapist on the Supreme Court. They are motivated..All of my high school “friends” on FB (who live in the south) are all posting shit about Kavanaugh. Congratulations and all that bull...Tempted to delete all of them because how can any decent human being want that deranged drunk on the Supreme Court. Even if you believe he did not try to rape her then at least you have to see that he does not have the temperament to be a S.C. justice. I mean really...are they that desperate for a win??? If they back Kavanaugh like that then imagine what they will do to protect Trump from Mueller..

Oh and I was at the beauty shop today. Every person there does not support Trump. No one mentioned a thing about the Supreme Court, upcoming midterms...not one word. I do not believe that Dems will turn out in the numbers that we need...Many Democrats just don’t understand (or care) about the importance of midterm elections.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. I think they would have been more motivated not getting him.

Now they dont think so much is at stake because they have the court and the presidency..

[In It to Win It]

16. Agreed! Dem voters don't turn out during midterms

I hope we can break that cycle this year for the sake of winning the House. In my circle, nobody knows who Brett Kavanaugh is; no one can tell the who is on the SCOTUS; these same people will go to the polls and vote for a Democrat during a presidential election year, but don't know their entire government is being controlled by republicans. In my circle, no one paid attention to the confirmation vote. People don't realize that not voting affects their pocket. I have a friend that didn't know that a raise in our local sales tax was on the ballot in 2016 to pay for a street car that strolls through the wealthy downtown area of our city, and he doesn't make much money. This same friend also believes his vote doesn't matter.

I have another friend that just got her US citizenship last month, and I've convinced her to register to vote (which she didn't want to do). Now that she's registered, getting her to vote is a separate uphill battle. The goal now is to get her to sign up for vote-by-mail because I know she won't physically go to a polling place to cast a vote (which I believe she did but I haven't confirmed). At the end of the day, she doesn't really care and she's only doing it so I won't keep asking.

How exactly do you get people to care about these things?

[roamer65]

17. Dems will turn out big time for one main reason.

Dotard J Dump.

[In It to Win It]

18. LMAO! Cracked me up

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Always has been.

More so now than before.

[budkin]

19. A long shot, but yes

I think our chances just went up.

[EffieBlack]

20. Maybe, maybe not - but every seat we pick up lays the groundwork for s takeover

[Quixote1818]

21. A big enough Blue Wave could tip the balance. This guy is predicting Dems will take it

&t=7s

[Awsi Dooger]

22. If Hillary were president we would probably lose 7-12 net senate seats this cycle

That's an easy way to look at it. The terrain is absolutely awful and in 50/50 political climate we probably would lose at least 4 seats.

But obviously there is no such thing as balanced terrain in a first term midterm. If Hillary had been president and with all the inevitable investigations and likelihood of low approval rating, I would put 8-10 net seats lost as the most likely range. I don't care about evaluating seat by seat compared to the big picture. Even seats we aren't worried about at all in this pro-blue climate would be problematic with an unpopular Democratic president.

Now, how does a 7-12 net loss turn into a gain of 2 or 3 or higher. I would say it does not. I always look at early evaluation and big picture logic far above recent conventional wisdom and current form. That's why I had Florida State +14 today against my Canes, even though I was ridiculed for that on the Canes football forums. But how does Miami deserve anything close to 14 point favoritism against Florida State? There isn't a class edge. There isn't a talent edge. During preseason barely more than a month ago many early evaluations had Florida State above Miami.

Only devotion to day to day variables and overreaction to current form places Miami at 14 point favorite above Florida State. I attended the game and was thrilled at the Canes' comeback. But I never had to sweat the +14 for one second. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Florida State dominated and led 27-7 at one point.

That may sound irrelevant to a senate discussion but what I'm saying is...go back two years or more and see how the 2018 senate cycle was being evaluated. There is tremendous benefit to that type of approach, instead of throwing it all away and fixating on current polling and consensus alone. I loaded up on Predictit on the Democratic "No" shares toward senate control 64 and 65 cents. Those numbers were available a week ago. As the polling shifted this week but before the price moved drastically I eventually played all the way up to 68 cents. My average price is 65 cents and I am convinced that is a tremendous bargain.

I'll root for us to regain the senate, despite my large wager. But here's one aspect I have not seen discussed: Can you imagine the burden toward the senate in 2024, if we do retake the majority this cycle? The number of seats we would be defending, and where they would be, would be beyond belief.

[ancianita]

24. If we don't win in 2018, there will be no getting Trump out. Unless...3 women + 2 men on SCOTUS...

vote down Gamble.