the clear tactical error of GOP confirming kavanaugh before the midterms.

[beachbum bob]

If you look at this from a tactical political view, pretend you are a Karl Rove wannabee, the gOP is making a huge error in confirming Kavanaugh BEFORE the midterm. Why is this? Pretty simple.

1. it now lessens the motivations of a GOP voter as they see this as a huge win that their vote will not have an impact on

2. it provides fuel for even MORE female voters to come out and vote democratic

3. no longer puts the re-election of redstate democratic senators at same level of risk, see points 1 and 2

4. had the tactic been better plan and collins/flake were a NO vote, and kavanaugh's confirmation was NOT passed, then this becomes a MIDTERM election issue for redstate democratic candidates both at senatorial and house level, see points 1 and 3

5. the remaining 3 weeks could have been all red meat for GOP base and republican leaning independents voters if kavanaugh confirmation failed.

Nothing would could stop McConnel from retrying a conformation vote after the midterm if the first one failed BEFORE the midterms

if we discount a kavanaugh on the supreme court (until that can be addressed in later years), the upside is great for democrats and not so great for GOP

[Iliyah]

1. Yep.

We come out in full force it's likely that the GOPs can't rig, cheat, steal it. They are a dirty bunch of people, un-American.

[marylandblue]

2. They'd rather have a guaranteed conservative court

And they still are favored to keep the Senate.

[unitedwethrive]

4. Exactly. And they'll use the threat of impeachment

to turn out their voters.

[beachbum bob]

5. the issue is, the GOP could have a 100% lock on the Senate and an OUTSIDE CHANCE to keep the

House had they strategized this better AND still get Kavanaugh on the supreme court AFTER the midterm. Nothing stops McConnel from having a revote.

So this is clear tactical error that gives huge advantage to democrats now with 3+ weeks left to go

[marylandblue]

10. They can't guarantee the Senate no matter what

McConnell is very cautious, and strategic more than tactical. Get a guaranteed court seat ASAP and that's good for decades. He still has a good shot at keeping the Senate in 2018, but even if he doesn't, the 2020 map is even harder for him.

[saidsimplesimon]

3. I hope it works out the way you predict.

It will take a massive GOTV effort to push humpty dumpty McConnel out of the cat bird seat. We can do it.

[beachbum bob]

6. the gears are turning all across america to make this midterm election a record for democratic

voters. Nothing is in play to stop that at all, matter of fact, practically guaranteeing it to happen

[madville]

7. Some Democrats are campaigning on impeachment if they take control of the House

That will be used to keep GOP voters motivated

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

8. Not sure on point 1

Kavanaugh and the confirmation fight fired up the right.

And of course their takeaway from it isnt "hey maybe we shouldnt nominate terrible people."

No, their takeaway is "We need to increase our numbers in the Senate so these spineless rinos don't screw things up when it comes time to replace RBG or Breyer."

I've heard and read similar sentiments multiple times this past week. They think one of our 4 liberal Justices wont make it till 2020 and they want to make sure they have a larger margin in the Senate to shove whatever asshole they can come up with through the process.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

9. I agree with your analysis.

They could have yanked K as soon as the skeletons started falling out of his closet and replaced him with any of the other right-wing troglodytes on the Federalist Society's short list - if they'd done that they probably would have had an easy confirmation of an equally conservative justice without any of the controversy and theatrics. I think the reason they stuck with him is that they wanted to prove they could win (no matter what those snowflakey liberal whore women came up with to besmirch the good name of a decent man who was only ever a virginal altar boy, star athlete and brilliant student who helped old ladies cross the street whether they needed help or not and who liked a little beer sometimes, but only a little). They had to win this one to prove they were in charge and could get any-fucking-body confirmed that they wanted. The purpose was so the MAGAts could actually feel the hair growing on their chests, and so ancient fossils like McConnell, Grassley and Hatch could feel like real men again. Maybe their shriveled old dicks even twitched a bit when the final vote count came in.

But I believe this will be a Pyrrhic victory because us snowflakey liberal whore wimminfolk are really, really angry now. Really angry. Like burn the whole fcking place down angry. We're gonna vote like we never voted before.

[FBaggins]

11. There's no way that they could take that chance

Let’s face it, they couldn’t know for sure that they could get him passed. If they delayed the vote until after the election, and then failed to get him through, there would not be time to replace him with another conservative before the new senate took over.

That could arguably have increased their odds of holding the senate... but only at the risk of a total loss.

[unblock]

12. not clear to me it's an error from their point of view.

i agree with your points that republicans would have a big political advantage in the mid-terms had they left the nomination in limbo until after the election.

however, i trust mcturtle knows the score. he's a dirty rotten evil bastard, but he knows the score and getting an extremely hard right-wing p.o.s. like kavanaugh on the supreme court is hugely important to a number of big republican donors, and therefore is hugely important for donations for republican politicians.

what mcturtle is telling us by doing this before the election, knowingly passing up some juicy electoral boosts, is that he can't trust that they'd lock up the seat if they don't confirm kavanaugh now. and the way they're acting confirms it. if it were otherwise, they'd surely just move on to the next hard right-wing *sshole, point out that no one has accused this new one of attempted rape, and they'd sail to confirmation for the same effective result.


republicans have a slim majority and they've been surprisingly fractious of late given how unified they've been in the past. mcturtle is telling us through his actions that he believes they there's a meaningful chance that they can't confirm anyone (or at least not someone so far to the right) after the election. that's not possible even if republicans technically hold the senate. they don't have much of a margin for error, and if they lose even one seat, they may not be able to hold together enough for a the kind of partisan justice they want.

there's always the possibility of a lame duck confirmation, but the dynamic changes post election. retiring republican politicians have at least made far more reasonable noises than the ones that still need republican money and republican votes. so the dynamic post election might prevent the same sort of justice even before republican actually lose seats.


i trust mcturtle wouldn't give up on the obvious advantage of delaying the confirmation unless he had good reason to think he'd be giving up something even more valuable to him.

[qazplm135]

13. the best path for them

was to drag this out until like the Friday before the election...have him approved that Saturday.

Takes out early voting, and maximizes their turnout while trying to minimize ours.

[Scruffy1]

14. It will bring them tons of dough.

Just iike the tax cuts for the rich its all about bringing in the big checks from the mega donors. They know that facts and logic don't matter to their base. The will vote for anything that has an R behind their name and can buy some TV time to attack liberals. If they control the Senate they are still safe until the 2020 election and the media will help them out because they want their ad dollars.Herre in Minnesota we still have two Democratic house seats in jeopardy and are likely to pick up two Republican seats. This shows to me that their base is always solid and is likely to stay that way in the near term and I haven't seen much sign of them losing votes because of it.The real questioin mark is the turn out of new voters. Losing the house is small potatos compared to stacking the Supreme court and getting the tax cut to their mega donors. They, likely, will still still have the Senate until 2020 so they are still in control. Politicians don't think long term during elections.

[Downtown Hound]

15. Not really

I think they've known for awhile they are going to lose at least the House. Putting Kav on the court is their way seeing to it that they stick around after they're gone.