Donna Shalala (FL-27) commercial against "another TV celebrity" opponent

[Awsi Dooger]

I thought this might be a decent change up tonight. Shalala is the Democratic candidate in my district in Miami...FL-27.

Polling is tighter than expected since Shalala doesn't fit the demographics of the district very well, as a non-Spanish speaker in a heavily Cuban district. But I wanted to deflect the conventional wisdom that Shalala has run a poor campaign. Her campaign contacts me all the time, by all methods. In fact I have received more communication from her campaign than all prior Democrats combined -- at all levels -- since returning to Miami and registering Democratic nearly a decade ago. For example, I have yet to hear from Bill Nelson or Andrew Gillum, and I don't expect to.

Shalala has been dominating the airwaves recently, at least on English stations, although I did see one Salazar spot yesterday, with her roaming around on a beach.

[RhodeIslandOne]

1. Good ad

That race scares me as this Repub obviously loves to work the media.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Definitely a scary race, for that reason

I wasn't familiar with Salazar but she has been a local TV personality for decades.

I have talked to neighborhood Hispanics about the race and they don't know what to make of it. I thought for sure I would receive some valuable feedback but they are stumped as well...so much contrast and difficult to evaluate.

Here is the Salazar commercial I mentioned. Republicans on local message boards are trying to push the contrast between the younger prettier woman and Shalala in her late 70s. Salazar doesn't shy away from that type of thing in her only English commercial that I have seen:

[RhodeIslandOne]

3. Stumped about what?

It’s pretty clear Salazar is a Trump supporter and that is not good for Hispanics.

I feel like they are only keeping the door open for her because she’s Hispanic herself as well as attractive.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Stumped regarding who will win

I should have made that clear. I asked for feedback on how fellow Cubans were viewing the race...who they planned to vote for.

I thought I might receive some detail on conversations they had with friends, or within the household from generation to generation. But they told me the House race hadn't generated any discussion, that they were following the governors race and especially the senate race but not the local House race.

[RhodeIslandOne]

5. Do Cubans still generally lean Republican?

Or do you think that is that changing with the youth?

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Many complicated variables

Overall I would say yes. But it definitely splits by age bracket, with older Cubans still very conservative. For example, at Canes football games I sit next to an older Cuban roughly 70 and he always yells for everyone to stand for the national anthem, and he is boycotting the NFL due to the kneeling aspect, and he was thrilled when Trump won, etc. I always make sure to keep the conversation strictly to football with him.

But the family who live next to me holds three generations under one roof and it is an interesting split. The grandmother is Republican but the mother and two sons are Democratic and very liberal. I talk to them all the time and they have become good friends. That was one of the families I asked about this race and they were stumped. Frankly I expected them to tell me their grandmother prefers Salazar, since I know she stays home and watches Spanish TV all the time.

From teenage years in Miami during the late '70s I never wanted to talk politics to local Cubans, after one bad experience at a local Denny's in high school that turned into a shouting match between myself and one Cuban guy, embarrassing his date and my date. I made some seemingly innocent remark that if JFK had lived and served two full terms, then RFK likely would have followed him as president in 1968. To my shock, the Cuban guy unloaded on me and started screaming in the Denny's, saying no Democrat would have been elected and especially not another Kennedy. I mostly laughed, while reminding him that Humphrey barely lost to Nixon despite all the chaos in 1968 including the assassinations and the Chicago convention, etc. He didn't care about any of that. He stood up and started ranting about anyone being stupid enough to think Democrats could be elected to consecutive terms. We continued to argue in the parking lot, even as both girls tried to calm things. That was the first time I realized that Cuban families had a different political perspective. It was obviously coming from his parents. We were 17.

I returned to Miami from Las Vegas in late 2008. Not until 2012 did I feel comfortable talking politics with Cuban neighbors. It was obvious they liked Obama and planned to vote for him. I was seeing Obama signs in strange yards, ones I always assigned Republican.

However, that was short lived due to Obama's policy change toward Cuba and the embargo during his second term. Now that added another complicated variable that didn't work in Hillary's favor. Many Cubans remained Democratic. My district voted heavily for Hillary. But other Cubans took it out on Hillary and voted for Trump because essentially they viewed it as anti-Castro leftovers, like a punishment of Obama for the decision he made.

Also, some older Cubans were in favor of building the wall because they view illegal immigrants from Mexico as competitors for some of the same jobs that Cubans normally get. So you had non-Cuban Hispanics opposing Trump due to immigration policy while more Cubans sided with him than probably would have favored a different Republican.

I'm a handicapper but I have to say I don't fully grasp all of it. That's why I can't forecast this race. Instead of one aspect to focus on as the tipping point, it's seemingly always changing.

[RhodeIslandOne]

7. Thank you for your insight

My ex-girlfriend who lived in Florida, is part Hispanic and more liberal than I felt most Cubans had a superiority complex towards other Latinos and that voting Republican was their way of declaring they deserved to be treated as “real Americans” and that other Hispanics were just kowtowing to the Democrats for “free shit”. I kinda wanted to not believe her until I met her college roommate who pretty much lived up to all of that.