The Floodgates Are About to Open on Kavanaugh

[MineralMan]

So, now we're up to three credible accusations, although the third has not been made public. What is likely to happen next is even more women coming forward with similar stories. That's the pattern with this kind of thing. There is strength, and courage, in numbers.

If Kavanaugh had any sense at all, he would issue a withdrawal statement today. If he does not, it's very likely that he will be swept away by the volume of accusations that surface.

[PJMcK]

1. My bet is Kavanaugh will be gone by Thursday

He wants to be on the Supreme Court more than anything in his overly-privileged life.

He and Trump-- who has just doubled-down on the nomination-- will ride this one till there are no more rails. Then Trump will act like he never heard of Kavanaugh.

Hopefully, this will delay a full Senate vote on the next nominee until after the new (hopefully) Democratic Congress is seated.

[volstork]

18. This is one of the most

elegant descriptions of trump's modus operandi that I have ever heard: "He and Trump-- who has just doubled-down on the nomination-- will ride this one till there are no more rails. Then Trump will act like he never heard of Kavanaugh."

[PJMcK]

20. Well, thank you!

Have a great week, volstork.

[volstork]

22. You're welcome! As someone said on Twitter, though,

"This coming week has already exhausted me."

[Achilleaze]

23. "Trump will act like he never heard of Kavanaugh"

True that. Dodging responsibility is one of his* main "republican family values."


* aka republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

[olegramps]

30. I would not be surprised that to spare his family of these unfounded lies he wil withdraw.

[cstanleytech]

36. I assume you meant he will issue such a bullshit statement because so far I have not seen anything

that shows these as being unfounded lies and personally I tend to believe the women more than him based on his past perjury to Congress.

[NCjack]

58. "I barely knew him. I think we met at a charity ball for Puerto Rican orphans.

You must recognize that he came to me highly recommended by the Andrew Jackson Association for the Protection of the Constitution -- yes, that's who it was."

[pangaia]

31. As soon as/if KAV is a goner, they will their next sycophant up..

no files, no paperwork, no nuthin', just a vote...

[luvtheGWN]

41. I would change the first sentence of your post to read:

"He believes he DESERVES to be on the Supreme Court". I know men like him. He'll fight to the death, and his reputation will be destroyed (if it isn't already).

[PJMcK]

56. Agreed (n/t)

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

55. I think that's exactly what will happen.

Trump uses people until there's nothing more to be had from them, and then they disappear.

[OnlinePoker]

59. Here is a graphic video depicting the Kavanaugh train in action

Trump is in the front. Notice the disappearing act just before the end.

[empedocles]

2. Kavenaugh may be trapped by devil's bargains

[atreides1]

32. There was no trap!!!

He walked into this devil's bargain with his eyes wide open and his hands held out!!!

[empedocles]

52. You are correct of course for the way K got into what is now a trap. However, now,

McConnell/Grassley Gang may want him out and disappeared, no matter what.

trump may well want kavenaugh in, no matter what.

kavenaugh himself is of minimal concern to anyone else, but himself.

Kavenaugh is in a deadly trap, with very little in leverage, options, etc.

[honest.abe]

3. Yep. Agreed.

I think if he doesn't the GOP will force Trump to withdraw his name. This is killing them politically.

[lapislzi]

15. They've chosen this hill to die on.

As hills go, it's as good as any.

Every craven, soulless, amoral republican senator is shackled to this train wreck. It's increasingly obvious judging by statements like McConnell's: "we're going full steam ahead" and Graham's: "nothing will change my vote" that they've made some kind of bitter calculus. They couldn't give a fuck about the optics at this point, any more than they could care what any woman has to say to them. For whatever reason, they've decided it's worth it. It's a logical extension of yam's "I could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue" philosophy. As much as I hate to admit it, he's right.

They have their paymasters to mind, and the whole privileged white guy house of cards to protect. Everything else is expendable.

[Achilleaze]

24. Well said

[HAB911]

27. +++++++++++

[getagrip_already]

39. agree, the dirty red line is still holding......

The only opinions that metter in the end are murkowski, collins, and maybe one or two others like flake and corker who don't have to give a fuck any more and would love to give trump the fid..

If murkowski and collins hold, he will be on the court. Regardless of how many "accusers" come forward.

This has been billed as critical to the mid terms. If he goes down, either by removal or being voted down, the gop will face real anger from its base.

You know they are dropping every rock they can lift on the heads of those two senators to keep their votes locked in.

[IluvPitties]

4. Kavanaugh would be very smart to just step down.

[MineralMan]

6. Yes. Otherwise, he's likely to lose his current job as a

judge, as well. His drunken, salacious youthful defence will not protect him.

[CrispyQ]

33. I hope his wife divorces him.

Oh, was the my public voice?

[Hortensis]

5. A college friend described Kavanaugh as a "mean drunk"

to the New Yorker team investigating, and finding a strong level of credibility to, the penis-in-face-accusation.

Since America seems to be far more interested in this stuff than in investigating documentary evidence of breaches and even crimes committed during his work within their government, I hope this gets some air time. No one likes a mean drunk, after all.

[smirkymonkey]

7. A mean drunk is just a cruel, angry person with the inhibitions removed.

It speaks to his character.

[Hortensis]

35. More than most know. Experts on alcohol intoxication

in societies say what we assume to be inevitable loosening effects on inhibitions are not nearly as inevitable as we imagine. In societies that don't expect and condone the kind of disinhibition that we do, the lessening is far less, sometimes even unobservable.

So although almost all of us believe our actions are increasingly out of our control "under the influence," we're actually capable of being far more controlled and responsible than we realize, just aren't choosing to.

So, yeah. Mean but ambitious and high-functioning guy who wasn't yet experienced enough to keep his good-man mask on in public. What happened in the frat house was supposed to stay in the frat house.

[MineralMan]

9. No Doubt. Sexual Assault Is a Mean Act.

Alcohol lowers inhibitions, so lots of mean people become even meaner when intoxicated.

[Delmette2.0]

17. Do I dare say this??

I remember years ago Bill Cosby in one of his comedy stand up performances. Note: I am not defending or approving of his off stage actions.

He talked about how drinking brings out a person's true personality. If you are hiding an asshole personality it will come out when you are drunk.

It is so bizarre that his comment and Kavanaugh popped up to me on this day, the start of Cosby's sentencing hearing.

[qazplm135]

29. yep

in vino veritas as they say.

[brewens]

8. What has to be scary for some of the white-wingers involved is that in any group of

guys, you know who the freaks are. None of it would have necessarily come out in a previous FBI investigation either. They might not talk to the right person, or they talked to guys that knew, but didn't think it would come out and wanted him on the court regardless. Or people that wanted him on the court especially because they had this information to hold over him. We may find out who some of those people are now.

[2naSalit]

12. Bet there are

russians involved in that too.

[BaileyBill]

10. Again, In Vino Veritas

[MineralMan]

11. Indeed. Old Sayings Are Often Very Accurate.

[dalton99a]

19. +1

[bigtree]

13. yep, more in the hopper

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[dembotoz]

14. gop still in control...if they maneuver the votes he will get in

[lapislzi]

21. McConnell claims he has the votes

It's one of the few things he's unlikely to lie about. Although I wouldn't put it past him to bluff about it at this juncture.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. More are coming

There is another accusation that the Republicans know about and the one they have feared, none of the stuff that has come out is it. He will have an accuser from his time as a clerk, that's the one the GOP has been aware of the whole time.

[Blue_true]

57. Mark Judge's former girlfriend says he admitted to her getting girls drunk and gang raping them

with other boys. She said he indicated that it was consensual. So that makes a fourth woman, this one connected to one of the principals. If his best buddy, who he got drunk with gang raped girls, how could he not know something? The girls were selected and set up, similar to what Mrs. Ford is claiming.

[SammyWinstonJack]

25. Women coming forward didn't stop tRUMP's campaign. This is different, how?

FTR, I hope you're right about pig Kavanaughty.

[BadgerMom]

44. Russia intervened with stolen Hillary emails

as things boiled around Trump. I don’t know that there’s a distraction big enough to take the spotlight off Kavanaugh or, if there was, whether it could save him or not, but Trump was aided by the Russians every. single. time.

[KPN]

65. Yes, I can't help but think folks here are being overly

optimistic. We are experiencing a coup d’etat that has been long in the making. They are not just going to give up on what may well be the most critical piece to their ultimate and lasting success. They got Trump (illegitimately) elected despite his repulsive history. Kavanaugh is the keystone to their success.

[Iggo]

26. He's got 250,000 reasons to power through it.

[Trust Buster]

28. "We're up to three credible accusations, although the third has not been made public" ?

Really ? That is your standard ?

[PubliusEnigma]

38. There are 4 accusers now. You cannot hold back the tide.

[plantwomyn]

42. Standards?

The bar has been set so low by Trump, with his incessant 'many people say', that 'standards' aren't relevant in our discourse any longer.

[Trust Buster]

43. They are to me. A source cannot be credible if it is not made public. That is common sense.

[BadgerMom]

46. What was the standard for Franken's accuser's story?

[Trust Buster]

48. Did you think they were credible ?

[BadgerMom]

60. Absolutely not.

My point is that demanding the standards of yore is anachronistic. Standards have been thrown out the window.

[Blue_true]

62. Yes. Three of the women were very credible.

In the end Franken was brought down by a pattern of unwanted touching. Maybe he is just a friendly guy, but when dealing with other people's bodies, maybe being friendly should come with restraints.

[KPN]

66. Exactly. Standards are irrelevant. This isnt

over by a long shot. The coup d’etat is still in process — and Kavanaugh’s appointment may well be the piece that cements it in place. They aren’t going to just give it up. Their future depends on their success right now.

[Blue_true]

61. There are 4 now. The fourth was told about gang rape of drunk girls. nt

[peggysue2]

34. We now see the reason that Republicans were willing to . . ,

jam this nomination through without proper vetting. It has nothing to do with Kavanaugh's integrity or honesty. It's all about ideology and Trump's belief that Kavanaugh, unlike other candidates, will protect him personally when Mueller's full legal liability hits the fan. I've read that major GOP donors have insisted on pushing Kavanaugh, so there's that too--money in the coffers. More than anything, this debacle is exposing the GOP's morally bankrupt position of winning at all costs. The Merrick Garland affair has come back to bite them in the rear end; there's no way they can assume the high ground in this matter. And if anything, the spectacle cements their anti-woman attitude: defending or excusing sexual assault, taking shots at female accusers or dismissing complaints as a woman being 'mixed up.'

As for Kavanaugh? Even before this disaster, he revealed himself with his behavior after the confirmation hearing, his refusal to acknowledge Fred Guttenberg's open hand. We reveal ourselves in these small moments; Brett Kavanaugh failed spectacularly.

Rest assured, there will be more evidence rolling out this week, more people coming forward with ugly stories. Because strength in numbers. Because 'boys will be boys' simply does not play in 2018.

[PubliusEnigma]

37. 4, now.

[getagrip_already]

40. 4, 8, 12...

It doesn't matter. The only number that matters is 2. Murkowski and Collins. If they stay in line, he takes a seat. Period.

[PubliusEnigma]

47. It does matter. Today is not yesterday.

[getagrip_already]

51. the day of the week doesn't vote on his appointment....

the United States Senate does. And only 50 votes will be required to seat him. There are only 49 "No" votes today.

We need 2 more. That is the only number that matters. Will 10 vs 4 accusers change that? Probably not. We have trump turning the chaos knob up to 12 by firing rosenstein. He will quickly get to muehler.

With all of that going on, the news cycle will be a mess and provide cover.

I hate it, but I think they will confirm regardless of what happens, short of a video, and then only because it becomes a criminal matter.

[Blue_true]

63. I agree with you. The new gang rape allegation against Judge blows the lid off this thing.

It gives the red state Dems cover and it puts Collins and Murkowski in an enormous bond that could end their careers if the vote for him.

[DemoTex]

45. Proverbs 16:18 (KJV) comes to mind. "Pride goeth before destruction .."

"Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. Better it is to be of an humble spirit with the lowly, than to divide the spoil with the proud."

Kavanaugh had a sinecure as a US Circuit judge. He could have stayed there, and - probably - none of this would have ever been known. But no. His blind ambition and the GOP's absolute imperative to pack the Supreme Court, ideologically, has ruined Kavanaugh's miserable, wretched life.

[BobTheSubgenius]

49. At least now, he could withdraw with a veneer of faux grace.

"This is distracting the Senate from doing it's job...it's putting too much stress on the families involved....blah blah blah." That would be the obvious play, but from what I've read of him, he is not unlike a KGBFSB mole. He wants to be ensconced in a position of real power and do his level best - or worst - to wreak as much destruction as he can to various institutions and norms.

What I've read paints him as radical, committed and almost fanatical. Maybe not even "almost."

[bucolic_frolic]

50. Senate Republicans are in a quandry over the quagmire

They either have to bail and admit they were wrong and tried to cover it up all along, or they have to go forward as if nothing happened and #FakeNews is trying to sandbag their guy while they vote to confirm a nominee sinking in a quagmire of criminal allegations.

[samnsara]

53. why should he withdraw? hes been getting away with shit all his life...

...until now!

[Blue_true]

54. A fourth woman has come forward.

Mark Judge's former girlfriend says that he admitted to her that him and other boys got girls drunk or stoned out of their minds and then gang raped them. She said that he believed that the sexual activity was consensual. She did not attach Kavanaugh to the gang rapes, but you have to guess that if his best buddy was involved in the rape, at a minimum, Kavanaugh knew something about what was happening.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

64. This is beginning to remind me a little of the Dr. Ronny Jackson debacle.

Jackson, like Kavanaugh, had a great job. He was the WH physician and a rear admiral in the Navy - plenty of prestige, great benefits, maybe not the absolute top of his possible career path but damn close. He also had a history of over-prescribing drugs and drinking while on duty, but those misdeeds were not well-known and apparently weren't causing obvious problems in the WH medical office. So Jackson was one of the few holdovers Trump didn't fire. And when it came time for Trump's annual physical, Jackson, perhaps just seizing an opportunity to keep protecting his job - or maybe angling for something better - offered up a big dose of the sycophancy Trump loves, and raved unnecessarily and fulsomely about Trump's alleged good health (239 lbs.? Really?). And then when there was an opening at the VA Trump offered it to him, despite his lack of any relevant qualifications, because Trump liked him and his sucking-up. Of course Jackson should have turned the offer down. How could he have not realized that (a) he wasn't qualified, and (b) his drinking and pill-pushing would come out in the wash? But he accepted, and the appointment crashed and burned on takeoff. Jackson slunk back to the WH medical office (he isn't even the main physician there any more), his reputation in ruins. And Trump never mentioned him again.

Kavanaugh should have known better than to accept the Supreme Court offer, with all those sexual skeletons in his closet. No doubt he was hoping the GOP senators could jam his confirmation through quickly before anything surfaced. If the confirmation fails his reputation, like Jackson's, will be destroyed, and Trump will carry on with another appointment and never mention him again. Trump attracts flawed people and takes advantage of their hubris, but if something goes wrong he discards them.

Hubris is another way of saying that you're so ambitious and arrogant that you've offended the gods and they'll fuck with you.