What are the chances Kavanaugh withdraws before Thursday?

[Renew Deal]

18 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	100%, there will not be a hearing
	9 (50%)
	He withdraws after the hearing.
	1 (6%)
	Kavanaugh doesn't withdraw and is confirmed
	4 (22%)
	Kavanaugh doesn't withdraw, but loses a confirmation vote
	0 (0%)
	Not sure
	4 (22%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Haggis for Breakfast]

1. I think there will come a point where his family will say

ENOUGH.

[Equinox Moon]

2. I am sure the wife knows something about his crude behavior toward women

[Haggis for Breakfast]

8. We'll probably see her next to him

at the podium with that deer-in-the-headlights look, standing by her man, proclaiming his innocence.

What do they tell the daughters ??

[Equinox Moon]

9. Doubt, is a powerful elixir. The wife doubts now, as will the daughters, even if they stand by him

I would hope they are honest with their daughters about what is happening. It is too big, in all the media, for them not know about it.

[Haggis for Breakfast]

12. They better prepare these girls

This news will be every where by tomorrow. What happens when those children get to school tomorrow ? The other kids will be all over them like a cheap suit.

[dlk]

3. It May Depend on Whether or Not Avenatti Does a News Conference

[Jarqui]

4. I'm still not sure.

McConnell and Grassley are unprincipled, intoxicated with power and ruthless

[OliverQ]

5. I don't think he'll withdraw. Republicans need him on the Court too much.

Once he's there, he won't be removed so he won't care.

[underpants]

6. I agree. At this point it would a humiliating defeat

and they can't have that. It could really hurt their turnout in November....or help it. Who knows with those whackos.

[Equinox Moon]

11. Maybe, just maybe, they won't have the votes.

[womanofthehills]

18. I think he will have to withdraw because they will not be able to get the votes

[pnwest]

7. I'm going to bet he's out by the end of Monday.

[Equinox Moon]

10. The frying pan is pretty hot now.

[torius]

13. Collins and Murkowski

will lose their jobs, according to polling, if they vote yes. But maybe it's worth it to them to secure the court for decades.

[oberliner]

14. Amy Coney Barrett

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Not this again

Always ignore today when making forecasts.

Retreat 24 hours and how you would have answered the same question. Even that method allows far too much weight to recency but at least it is superior to the preferred approach.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

17. I was speculating on withdrawal this morning based on 24 hour old information

At that point, I thought it was about a 10% chance. With accuser two, and Avenatti's allegations, the forecast is "media firestorm"

[Algernon Moncrieff]

16. I'd say 50/50

With Ford, they'd have taken their chances. Now a 2nd accuser, and the specter of more bad news of there is any truth to these Avenatti allegations.

Conservatives really want this seat in the court filled quickly. This week is the last chance to get anyone confirmed before November, and I'm 90% sure they'd pick Amy Barrett (I posed that question here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211167836). I imagine the White House is doing the calculus on this.

[Garrett78]

19. 4% think he'll lose a confirmation vote. You optimists, you.

For the record, I think he'll withdraw. Or be confirmed.