****BREAKING**** Democrats jump out to twelve point lead in A- rated WSJ-NBC poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Link to tweet

[dalton99a]

1. Democrats must win in November. GOTV!

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

[leftynyc]

3. Good news

I wonder what's causing the jump - Kavanaugh-Mueller racking up songbirds-just General disgust at the inability of this administration to go a week without being caught in a lie?

[bearsfootball516]

5. I think it's mostly Kavanaugh.

Mueller has gone quiet, working from the background recently. But Kavanaugh is overwhelmingly unpopular and the Republicans trying to ram him through is only going to hurt them in midterms.

[robbedvoter]

4. the Kavanaugh effect

Link to tweet

[cab67]

15. There's a potential dark side to this.

This could, ironically enough, give Republicans ammo to ram his appointment through. They were facing a blue wave before Kavanaugh; pressing forward might not cause enough additional damage to make a difference.

Not saying I want Kavanaugh to be appointed; only repeating what I heard someone say yesterday.

[Fred Sanders]

17. Republicans being kicked out of power forever has no "dark side"! And by righteously angry women!

[PearliePoo2]

6. Last week a poll expert (Can't remember his name) talked about the previous poll of a 10 point

preference for Democrats in Congress was borderline for taking control of the Senate.

However, he said that if that number was to increase to 11 or 12 percent, those are numbers that could flip the Senate.

He also said, "look for the trend."

Well, guess what folks? WE ARE 'EFFING THERE!!

K&R

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. A four point generic ballot advantage gives us a 50/50 chance of winning the House.

With every point over that our chances increases.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. 538 says we only have a 1 out of 3 chance to win senate

[Fred Sanders]

18. Better than the inside straight Shitler pulled off...closer to hitting a flush on the river?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Silver gave Trump a 28% chance of winning in his final forecast.

3-1 to 4-1 underdogs win 33 1/3 % and 25% of the time.

[whopis01]

28. But a 5 in 6 chance of taking the House

Sure the Senate is only a 1 in 3 chance. But when you look at what has to happen, it is amazing it is that close.


There are 35 Senate seats up for elections.

To remain in control the Republicans have to win 8.

To gain control the Democrats have to win 28.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I was referring to the House. I am not aware of a formula for the Senate.

[John Fante]

35. Considering how large number of seats the Dems are defending, that's

a remarkably high percentage.

[lpbk2713]

7. Head for the showers Thugs.

The voters are wise to you lying ways.

[bearsfootball516]

8. One fact that's lost in here is that 35 percent of young voters say they're interested in midterms.

That may not sound like a lot, but for a demographic that historically doesn't vote AT ALL in midterms, that's stunningly high.

[PearliePoo2]

12. You're right! That's very significant.

Young voters typically turnout at about 25% so that's a 10% increase! (btw...1 in 4 voting is pathetic imo)

Come on kids, get off your phones for an hour and go get your ballots!

[Wounded Bear]

9. All the more reason to work even harder this fall...

No complacency!

GOTV!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

10. Was there a follow up question

asking whether the respondent planned to vote specifically for the Democrat (or Republican) actually running for Congress in that district? Who they were going to vote for if they had a Senate race to consider? Especially in those races where an incumbent Republican is running, the follow-up question is hugely important.

No one actually votes for control of Congress. They vote for specific candidates. And incumbents win something like 90% of the time.

[Rizen]

13. Yay, get out the vote!

I'm a millennial who's been voting since I was 18. Meaningful Democrat votes. It's frustrating how few young people care about politics.

[Hulk]

22. I passed out voting registration cards 9 years back at a local parade in Vantucky, WA...

...and I was stunned at how many people "took pride" in admitting they had NEVER voted, and didn't intend to start now. This country is chuck full of idiots and stubborn fools. I didn't bother arguing with anyone. I was accused of being a "Democratic tool", but I had to inform them, EVERYONE was able to register to vote in whatever party, or no party, if they so chose.

I'm so frustrated by ignorance and stubborn pride at being stupid in this country. I'm 70, and I've been aware of this since I started traveling the world when I was a very young man. It's sad. I don't think it's gotten better since then.

[Scurrilous]

14. K&R

[FakeNoose]

19. We need this super-majority to break the hackers' hold

We all know the hackers will be meddling like crazy, but they can only make a difference when a county/state has a very slim difference. When it's an overwhelming difference (like 10-12% would be) there's nothing they can do.

We need both the House and the Senate to make these RWNJ creatures gone.

[Hulk]

20. "feel good news".....

Like everyone else, I like looking at polls that have the progressive movement taking over the federal, state and local elections; but I have been burned before, and so have you.

This particular type of poll is insignificant to me, as "all races are local", and this generic type of brush doesn't necessarily translate into taking over the House or Senate.

I'll be so glad when this is all over, and we can reflect back on the polls and see if they were in fact accurate or just more smoke screen to influence turn out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. "This particular type of poll is insignificant to me, as "all races are local",

If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/

BTW, the national polls were well within the margin of error:


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html



There was correlated error in state polling.


S--t happens.

[NickPeace]

21. Awesome News!

I believe the Democrats’ advantage will only get better! 😊👍

[aikoaiko]

24. That's nice, but do these numbers even correlate to taking control?

Historically speaking.

[Azathoth]

25. Falls to 8 points when we talk about likely voters

Still a solid advantage, but the pattern remains. As in every single election cycle, it's the Democratic-leaning voters who are least likely to show up.

[jcgoldie]

26. Right

They were talking about this on face the nation. It all depends on Dems getting out the vote. If you take away the people who say they are going to vote but have not voted in any midterm going back all the way to 2010, then the house still looks like an even split.

[packman]

27. Love to hear about good-news polls , but

I guess I'm just a Joe Bfstplk type of guy---

[sueh]

29. Yes, but GET TO THE POLLS AND VOTE !!!!

[Doodley]

30. Six more weeks of Trump making things even worse for Republicans. That 12 point gap needs to widen.

[Demovictory9]

31. prediction.. lots of Trump rallies with focus on NFL players and MS13

lots and lots of dog whistling to the base

[NastyRiffraff]

32. I love it

but I'll love it even more when we get out the vote and show up in massive numbers in November, more than enough to overcome what the Republicans will surely do to suppress the vote.

Whatever we do, we can't get complacent. Let's work like we're 12 points behind.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. Same poll has Trump at 44% approval and GOP gaining in enthusiasm

I have to say the combination does not make sense. Democrats do not have a 12 point generic lead in a real world with Trump up to 44% and GOP voters catching up in terms of midterm enthusiasm.

Obviously this won't be popular but the most recent trends are not as favorable as a few weeks ago. Trump approval has slowly ticked upward to 41.2% on 538 when it was down to 39.9% briefly.

I would be thrilled with an 8 point generic edge in the actual voting. But we need something to happen to push Trump's approval back toward 40 and not upward to 42. Things like that may seem inconsequential but some posters here were ignoring Hillary's drop from 82% to 65% in 2016. That's an entirely different world in terms of probability.

There are going to be dozens of razor tight house, senate and governorship races. To win more than our share we need Trump as low as possible.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. This

Link to tweet

Also, FOX found the Democratic advantage going from + 6 to +7 when going from registered to likely voters which is the opposite of what WSJ-NBC found. Their poll had Dems going from +12 to + 8 when going from registered to likely voters.

And as the parties realign with the Dems becoming the party of urban and suburban professional and college educated America and the Repubs becoming a rural party of high school or lower graduates we will be the ones with the high propensity voters.

[lpbk2713]

38. I'm looking forward to the day ...

when the rethuglican party will just be asterisk in the history books.

Thanks Trump. At least you were good for something.