Mark Shields - Why Booming Economy Won't Save GOP In Midterms

[DonViejo]

Mark Shields

Why Booming Economy Won’t Save GOP In Midterms

September 23, 2018 3:15 am

The stock market has just hit a new historic high. Median household income in the U.S. is higher than ever. Fewer laid-off Americans are today forced to file for unemployment benefits than at anytime since 1968, when the U.S. civilian labor force of 81 million was one-half of today’s 162 million. With the 2018 midterm elections only little more than a month away, this is all good news for Republicans, who control the presidency and both the House and Senate, right?

Not really. The most recent Gallup Poll shows only 38 percent of American voters approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing while 56 percent of voters disapprove. By way of historical comparison, the last time a first-term president faced disapproval numbers almost as bad as Trump’s was President Ronald Reagan on the eve of the 1982 midterm elections, when the U.S. unemployment rate had hit 10.8 percent, its highest point since the Great Depression, and the nation’s prime interest rate had skyrocketed to 21.5 percent. Reagan, whose job-approval rate was 42 percent, saw his Republican Party lose 26 House seats on Election Day.

Since 1952, history has shown that when a president’s job rating is above 50 percent approval, that president’s party loses an average of just 14 House seats in the midterm elections. But presidents below 50 percent job approval see their Party lose an average of 39 House seats. Barring divine intervention between now and Nov. 6, Donald Trump’s approval number cannot reach above 50 percent.

Midterm elections are inescapably a referendum of voters’ judgement on the current president’s job performance and the man himself. It is not a comparison to the president’s past opponents. Donald Trump, trying to recycle his winning campaign against Hillary Clinton, is on a fool’s errand. Clinton, voters know, has not held public office for nearly six years, and she was never president.

So how, in the face of such painfully bad economic news, was Ronald Reagan able to keep GOP House losses down to just 26 seats in 1982 — a number, privately, knowledgeable Republicans today would be relieved to suffer in 2018? Quite simply, American voters liked Ronald Reagan. When asked in the Gipper’s first term which of the following statements best described their feelings toward Reagan: a) I like him personally and I mostly approve of his policies; b) I like him personally and I mostly disapprove of his policies; c) I dislike him personally and I mostly approve of his policies; and d) I dislike him personally and mostly approve of his policies. What this found was that 7 out of 10 American voters personally liked Ronald Reagan which provided him in stormy times — such as 1982 — with a reservoir of positive feelings that he could draw upon in stormy times.

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http://www.nationalmemo.com/why-booming-economy-wont-save-gop-in-midterms/

[Iliyah]

1. Booming for the upper super class . .

Cost of living is raising while wages are stagnant for working middle class and poor.

GOPers are talking resources away from one group and giving to another, such as ICE and farmers (whom asshole created the problem in the first place).

Inflation is kicking in big time . . .

[greymattermom]

4. Republicans forget that the 1%

may have a huge percent of the money, but are only 1% of the votes.

[anarch]

2. it's intersting to me that the stock market and unemployment numbers seem to be the benchmarks

So the economy is "doing great" as long as stock values keep climbing and people are working...I keep thinking of something that I think it was W who said, about how a parent working 3 jobs in order to just barely take care of their kids was "uniquely American" or something like that. I guess what I mean is, I don't buy the idea that full employment is necessarily a sure marker of quality of life. If every non-rich person is forced to work two or more jobs just to make ends meet, does that count as like 200% employment for that person? Like, the economy is doing so good, not only is unemployment low, but people are all working like 80 to 100 hours a week...oddly enough, a lot of them still can't afford groceries, but hey they sure are working their asses off....

I dunno, maybe I'm just bitter about having to work so damn much myself these days, and being salaried...so despite what seems like a decent salary, if I try to translate it to an hourly wage, I'm making less actual money per hour (given the purchasing power of the dollar) than I was 20 years ago. It's depressing.

[sarcasmo]

3. The booming part is for who exactly? The upper middle class and rich?

[Liberalhammer]

5. My answer to this is simple

On an emotional level Trump and the Republican party are assholes of the highest caliber. I think the majority of Americans know this. It's a basic elementary school values backlash about manners and how you should treat others.

[bitterross]

6. Gas and Groceries cost more and the tax cut was for the wealthy

It may look like it's booming according to the stats quoted. But those are not the stats that affect regular people.

Inflation, the cost of gas and groceries have all taken a toll on people.

[lindysalsagal]

7. Economy winners were already voting gop. No net gain.

The vast non-party middle is waking up to the fact that the gop are gangsters.