MN-02: Cook Political Moves Jason Lewis to Lean Democrat

[RandySF]

Twin Cities south suburbs: Eagan, Burnsville
Lean Democratic. Amazingly, this is the only highly competitive race in the country that's a rematch from 2016. That year, Lewis defeated Democrat Angie Craig by a slim 47 percent to 45 percent, with left-leaning Independent Paula Overby taking eight percent. This time, Lewis is an underdog, in part because there won't be any "spoiler" on the 2nd CD ballot: Overby is a Green Party nominee for Senate instead.

But Lewis's biggest problem is simply the political climate. The former conservative Twin Cities radio host, once known as "Minnesota's Mr. Right," has taken every major GOP vote in a suburban district that voted for President Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. And Craig, a former St. Jude Medical communications executive, never stopped running: she has $1.5 million on hand to Lewis's $1.2 million in June.

Democrats probably miscalculated in 2016 by simply casting Lewis as a mini-Trump. In its ads, the DCCC used old radio snippets of Lewis saying "vast majority of young single women are non-thinking" and comparing welfare to slavery, spliced with footage of Trump rallies. But both Trump and Lewis carried the district. This year, CNN unearthed new damning Lewis clips. But now, they can be linked to a voting record.

Craig also admits her own messaging fell short and has switched her media team. As a successful businesswoman who grew up in an Arkansas trailer park and came out as gay in high school, she has an impressive personal story. But in her 2016 ads, she was lecturing voters from a corporate boardroom. The 2nd CD has its fair share of professional suburbs, but it's got plenty of blue-collar small towns too.

After the razor-thin margin two years ago, Lewis was always going to be in for a very difficult reelection. Now, private polls conducted by both parties show him behind. Republicans may end up spending elsewhere. The race moves to the Lean Democratic column.


ANGIE CRAIG





https://www.angiecraig.com

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Yes!

I can't stand that f'in guy. When he had a radio show he was a kind of bush league Rush Limbaugh. He's terrible. I hope Angie Craig cleans his clock. It's not my district, I'm in MN-05, where Ilhan Omar is almost certain to win. But I'd love to see both Jason Lewis and Erik Paulsen crash and burn.